from Bens Blog - lets see? (with thanks to Ben)

As I have written before about  I am a firm believer that certain horses have ceilings to their abilities(that is a handicap mark where they struggle to perform at their optimum) and this is an angle I like to utilise when looking to narrow the field in certain handicap races.
These are the notes I drafted up for the Class 3 Bobby Renton Chase at Wetherby (3.55) today. In all honesty this race has plenty of question marks over a few with a clutch of contenders only having a handful of chase starts to their name but what I’m trying to highlight here is the thought process rather than simply making a selection -
*CM = Current Handicap Mark

OTAGE DE BRION – CM 134 – 1^st start in a handicap, was rated as high as 142 when with N Twiston-Davies

SAFARI ADVENTURES – CM 128 – Highest Win Mark 120 – Rec when racing above 120 – F-6-2-3-2-P-P

MARLEY ROCA – CM – 125 Highest Win Mark 117 – Only had 7 starts and could easily still be on the up

KNOCKAVILLA – CM 125 – Beaten off 125 & 120 on previous 2 Hcp starts but only had 7 chase starts and change of yard could bring about improvement

LE ROI ROUGE – CM 120 – Highest Win Mark 117 – Rec when racing from above 117 – 4-2-4-8-8-3-9-7-7-F-9-2-9-3-7-6

HORSE SHOE REEF – CM 119 – Highest Win Mark 110 – Could still be improving although finished a well beaten 2^nd from same mark on last start

MEET THE CRITICS – CM 118 – Highest Win Mark 110 – Only had 1 Chase start so could easily have more to come

MR CRYSTAL – 1^st start in a handicap but currently rated 5lbs lower than Hurdle mark so potential for improvement

PERSIAN GATES – On a career high of 115 after being raised 10lbs for a 17l win LTO, has been raised 17 lbs in his last 3 runs

ZAZAMIX – CM 114 – Finished well beaten off marks of 122 & 120 on his previous 2 handicap chase starts, now sits 3 lbs below his hurdle mark

DOURYNA – CM 113 – Highest Win Mark 91 – beaten off 115 & 113 on last 2 runs. Only had 6 chase starts to date

MORNING MOMENT – CM 113 – Highest Win Mark 104 – This only his 5th chase start so chance of improvement still to come

BORDER REIVER – CM 110 – Highest Win Mark 105 – Record when racing above 105 – 2-8-P-0-7-2

Obviously this is only a starting point and there are many other angles that we need to consider (ground, track, fitness……) it’s anything but an exact science and you can be left guessing at whether a horse has the ability to defy its current mark but when you do spot one that is on a ‘winnable’ mark or showing a progressive profile they can offer up a value backing proposition.
At this stage of the season fitness is obviously a question mark over a number of runners. In this race alone 9 of the 14 runners are making what could be described as their seasonal reappearance (a break of 90 days or more). It’s important to factor in to your analysis whether, based on past performances, a horse is fit to go after a break or generally need a run to blow the cob-webs away. Here are the 9 seasonal debutants and their records after 90 days or more off the track –

OTAGE DE BRION – 2 wins from 7 starts (1-3-6-P-1-F-P)

SAFARI ADVENTURES – 1 win from 6 starts (1-7-8-F-5-F-P)

MARLEY ROCA – 1 win from 5 starts (6-5-F-5-1)

KNOCKAVILLA – 1 win from 4 starts (1-F-2-3)

LE ROI ROUGE – 0 wins from 4 starts (8-7-9-5)

YOU KNOW YOURSELF – 0 win from 1 start (2)

MEET THE CRITICS – 1 win from 4 starts (2-4-1-9)

DOURYNA –0 win from 3 starts (6-F-4)

MORNING MOMENT – 1 win from 3 starts (3-1-P)

There are a couple in there that you don’t really want to be backing until they have had a run or 2 to smooth the rough edges, but until you looked a bit closer at their profiles this is something you may not have been aware of.
Personally I feel this is a tricky looking race to solve and I’m wary of getting too involved at this stage of the National Hunt season, especially in the mid-week affairs. However, it’s good to use these races to get your eye back into the jumping game (if you had of course been seduced by the flat over the summer!). What I wanted to show you here was just a taster of the amount of work that can go into analysing a given race and some of the angles I look to apply to a handicap chase.
Although I personally won’t be backing anything in this race I am very interested in KNOCKAVILLA who has his first start for John Wade since moving from the Howard Johnson Yard. Wade made a number of shrewd purchases from the dissolving of the Johnson/Wiley partnership (forced dissolving obviously!) and this could be a good taster of what we can expect from the ex Howard Johnson horses.


 And from me --- Knockavilla does run well fresh has never been out of the frame in any ground his ex yard had a formidable long lay off record decent jumper in the main and has brill chance if wade has a handle on it 
Safari Adventure is an analyser horse for me and has Gillies on board won off a higher mark at Aintree in this class and has 4lbs in hand of this mark has the highest efficiency off this mark for code  class and distance. win to run ratio went out like a light and Lucinda yard starting to fire but track is ideal and will be recording the race to see how it gets on - (Ben would be more positive about its chances as he has some very decent connections with the Lucinda Russell yard) 


 well hope you will win today - have to go now so no betting or nap from me  


 good luck all


 Bob
Result ----  This looked the best race of the day and it was run at a sound gallop thanks to Safari Adventures, 2nd - Led, hit 10th, headed 3 out, kept on, no impression (op 12-1 tchd 11-1)didn´t look well handicapped. He did really well to keep going for as long as he did, after leading from the outset, and thoroughly deserved a place.

PERSIAN GATES, up 10lb for a 17l success last time, won this in the manner of a horse on a serious upward curve. He will obviously be hit hard for winning so comfortably, and it´ll be interesting to see at what level he is pitched in next time.

Le Roi Rouge stayed on from the rear to catch the eye. Softer ground and a slight drop in the weights will make him more interesting.

Douryna ran as as though the run was needed after a 167-day break.

Meet The Critics, 8lb higher thanwhen winning at Newbury, his first attempt over fences, was produced to have a chance but was another that may have wanted this outing after a lengthy break.

You Know Yourself, off since April, had been doing well since going over fences but was caught one-paced here over the final few fences.

Border Reiver had never finished worse than third in his previous eight starts here, so this was disappointing. [DT]

QUOTES: Chris Bealby, trainer of Persian Gates: "He´s improved during the summer and will probably go up a chunk for this, although this was a nice pot to win. We´ll have to see what the handicapper does."