Also i have a bit of a soft spot for Bath, not only is it my local course, it was also the first racing i went to. Was only back in July this year when i first got into racing, so still alot of learning to do. I was cluless back then but did a bit of research before i went and wrote down three horses on my phone that i was gonna bet on. Much to my delight, one by one then came in. My Meteor 5/1, Last Rose of Summer 11/10 and Peachez 6/1. Im sure if they all lost i wouldn't be here right now. But have developed a soft spot for the races, and the prospect of making a few extra quid.
My staking since i started has been a bit up and down, due to this month being a bit crap already i am going to start with a bank of just £30.00. All selections will be backed to win or each way (5% of betting bank). I am gonna try and keep betting structered - I.e making my own picks, not being influenced by forums, and level stakes! If i did level stakes this month, i would definately be in profit!
Will try and place bets night before and forget about. Then come home and see how well or bad i did. The amount of times i have placed a bet in work on my phone on a whim, only for it to loose. Away with work some nights also, which means i can't get onto my pc to do the required research. - These will be no betting days from now on, as my losses seem to always be on these days.
Maximum of 10 selections a day, at any price. Once i get paid end of month, and my confidence of winning has returned, the bank will be increased to a reasonable amount lol.
Sorry for waffling, here's the nitty gritty:
2.15 Kemp - Alfraamsey - 1 pt win
2.30 Bath - Rose Two Destiny - 1pt win
2.40 Naas - Floralys 1pt E/W
2.45 Kemp - Steet Dance 1pt win
3.35 Bath - Yeeoow 1pt win
3.50 Kemp - Nothingbutthetruth 1pt e/w
4.20 Naas - Donnas Palm 1pt win
5.35 Cork - Ballysteen 1pt e/w
5.50 Naas - Meister Eckhart
For your info, i have uploaded a pic of the columns i used to pick these.
Thoughts and feedback welcome.
6 comments:
well thought out piece Simon - good read. Bath is My brother Alan's track of choice - used to go there a lot myself when I lived closer.
Betting - am not a system backer myself preferring to stick with a base on my account that I will not go below. When I go to the track I don't have a stake per race. Its more than likely I will only back 4 of 6 races.
I never try and get out of trouble last race nor do I say to myself its bookies money for the last race so go in big.... not to say I always adopted this rule - merely learned it the hard way.
I can only say Dont "look" for races in your ten a day maximum.
use the BTL or stake plan of 80/20 win place or 80/20 place win to cover your bet and Dutch bets by halving your stakes rather than betting both for the Original stake.
If your willing to bet and you only have confidence in one horse/race that's the one to back don't scatter gun the card ....
good luck today --- will try and find a head to head with you in at least one race --will post something if I do
you indicate you select te night before --- dodgy because of ground changes
you indicate from the screen shot you selected today's from one page - is that right?
for example the page is for a bumper on good ground though its forecast g/soft (don't trust Irish Goings) only 1 has run recently only 1 well bred animal (Mini Vic- un-raced) its a pro Am jockey race and its one of the lowest prize races today --- would not have any of my money running on it at all -
by the way you have trainers /jockey stats set to all - I can reccomend you look at trainers/jocks course records
Thanks bob. That staking plan does sound good!
Yeh just used these columns last night to make my picks. Will see how they do.
I see what u mean about ground changes. Do you know a website I can use to check ground?
Also can u change vfb to show trainer & jockey percentages for the course like you said?
Cheers
Simon I can only re-iterate what Bob says. Most importantly don't chase losses, I rarely bet on more than 2 or 3 races a day and often don't at all for days, especially if I don't have the time for a deep analysis.
Irish races.... rarely touch them, I find that the form is often mysterious and comparison difficult, and as Bob says the ground does not translate between UK and Eire.
Think about the most important variables - going, distance, class, rating, improvement and don't forget to see if the trainer is on form.....read the RP and look at the stats (as well as vfb)
John
oh and yes make notes on horses, listen to commentry, trainers. write your own feelings about a performance too. The combination of stats and notes are unbeatable.....arn't they Bob?!!
yep yep yep to all John NOTES Make BIG Money on the price range I am looking for - to see instantly the chances of a long shot against the favourites before the stable has loaded on is invaluable - and to see notes that say the favourite is a dodge pot reaps dividend too ! Betfair has some good pundits (and some howlers) they also do a pod cast where you can listen to the in running and type as you listen! - you can type up triers and non trier's from what you see on ATR and you can put the horses name into the analyser so you have it right in front of you on first scan --- and though you guys have to work BTL (back to lay) or LTB on Betfair is an angle that secures your stake and profit.
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