The Betfred Cesarewitch 3.50 saturday

The Betfred Cesarewitch takes place at Newmarket on Saturday 8th October at 3.50  and as always will be a wide open affair with around 30 runners going to post. It makes up the second part of the Autumn Double with the Cambridgeshire, which was won by Prince Of Johanne two weeks ago.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 1-1-21

4yo: 2-9-104

5yo: 1-8-78

6yo: 3-8-52

7yo: 1-2-43

8yo+: 2-2-33

Horses aged 6+ hold an advantage with a combined record of 6-12-128 compared to horses aged 3 to 5 (4-18-203).

4 of the 6 winners aged 6+ had run over hurdles that year.

Weights

Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-0-20

Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 3-5-64

Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 2-11-83

Horses carrying 8-0 to 8-6: 3-6-88

Horses carrying 7-7 to 7-13: 1-5-93

Horses carrying 7-6 or less: 0-3-16

No strong trend to be gleaned from the weights of the winners.

Top Weight: 9000000590 (0-0-10)

Horses carrying a penalty (0-4-45) have a very poor record with just 4 of 45 runners making the frame, all of those 4 carried 8-11 or less.

Official Ratings

Horses rated 76 to 86: 2-15-143

Horses rated 87 to 98: 7-14-157

Horses rated 99 to 109: 1-1-31

7 of 10 winners (including last 5) were officially rated 87 to 98. That ratings bracket has also accounted for 14 of the 16 places in past 4 runnings.

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners (last 7) finished in the first 4 on last flat start

8 of 10 winners (last 7) posted their highest or second highest flat RPR MR last time out

9 of 10 winners had run at least 4 times that year (flat or hurdles)

8 of 10 winners had run in 12 or fewer handicaps

9 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicaps

9 of 10 winners ran at class 3 or higher last time out

5 of last 6 winners had won a class 2 handicap (exception was a grade 1 winning hurdler that has finished 2nd in a listed flat race)

10 of 10 winners had won a race over 2M+ (flat or hurdles)

7 of 10 winners had run at listed or group level

5 of 10 winners had won over hurdles (4 of the 5 had run at the Cheltenham Festival that year)

9 of 10 winners had won a race with 15 or more runners

Other Races

5 of 10 winners ran in the Northumberland Plate, finishing 50108

3 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Stakes, finishing 243

3 of 10 winners (last 3) ran in John Guest Brown Jack H’cap, finishing 512

2 of 10 winners ran in the Shergar Cup Stayers handicap, finishing 14

2 of 10 winners ran in Doncaster Cup last time, finishing 22

2 of 10 winners ran in Gordon Carter H'cap last time, finishing 33

Trainers

Nicky Henderson (2-1-6) has gained 2 winners and a second from his 6 runners in the past 10 years.

Tony Martin (1-1-5) and Philip Hobbs (1-1-5) have each gained 1 win and 1 place from their 5 representatives.

Mark Johnston (1-0-14) is the only other trainer with an entrant to have won the race since 2001, though his other 13 runners all failed to make the frame.

Tim Fitzgerald (0-2-3) saddled Inchnadamph to finish 3rd-2nd-5th in 3 consecutive years. while Dermot Weld (0-2-4) trained Direct Bearing to be placed twice in the race.

Trainers who were predominantly focused on NH have won 6 of the last 11 runnings since 2000 (Martin Pipe X 2, Nicky Henderson X 2, Tony Martin and Philip Hobbs).

Irish-trained runners (1-3-15) have made the frame with 4 of 15 runners, though Tony Martin accounts for half those.

Draw (corrected for stall re-ordering)

Horses drawn 1 to 12: 8-11-120

Horses drawn 13 to 24: 2-12-120

Horses drawn 25 or higher: 0-7-91

Surprisingly for a race run over 2M 2F, there is a large big draw bias towards horses drawn low with 8 of the last 10 winners being drawn 1 to 12.

Horses drawn 1 to 5: 5-7-50. The bottom 5 stalls have produced 5 of last 10 winners from just over 15% of the total runners.
Look at last years race card - Once more a high draw proved beneficial  (remember the draw numbers have been reversed and high is now low) in the Cesarewitch, with AAIM TO PROSPER, who came out of stall 30, becoming the seventh winner in the last ten years to be drawn 25 or higher. He could not hold his initial very prominent pitch but was still well enough placed and, after kicking clear plenty soon enough, he held on well when the mare came at him. He had been seventh in this last year, when racing a little keenly in first-time blinkers, and was racing off a mark 2lb higher after some solid efforts in marathon handicaps this season. last run at Ascot had been a scorcher 

La Vecchia Scuola travelled well in rear before closing to go after the winner but, having reached his quarters, she could not get by. This was a brave effort from a versatile mare and it cannot be said that she did not stay. She could drop back to 1m4f for the November Handicap at Doncaster.

Plymouth Rock was arguably an unlucky loser. He was tucked away at the back and his rider´s attempts at a forward move on the inside were thwarted repeatedly. Eventually switched for a run, at a point when the winner had already kicked for home, he finished fast down the outside. He is a frustrating animal, a beaten favourite four times this year, but is capable when things go his way and he got the longer trip well.

Price

9 of 10 winners were priced 16/1 or below

Caracciola was a shock 50/1 winner in 2008 but the other 9 winners since 2001 were all priced 16/1 or below.

Favourites (2-4-12) have won 2 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes profit of 1.00.

Racing Style

9 of 10 winners were held up or settled in mid division

This is clearly not an easy race to be up with the pace early and stay there. The only winner to race prominently came in 2004, the only time since 2001 the ground came up softer than good to soft.

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• Non-hurdler aged 3 to 5 or hurdles runner aged 6+
• Not carrying a penalty
• Officially rated 87 to 98
• Finished in the first 4 last time in a class 3 or higher ERMYN LODGE 
• Posted highest/second highest RPR/MR  last time out ERMYN LODGE
• Run in 12 or fewer flat handicaps (winning no more than 3)
• Won over at least 2 miles ERMYN LODGE
• Won over hurdles (and ran at this year’s Cheltenham Festival)
• Contested a group or listed race
• Previously won a class 2 handicap
• Ran in this season’s Northumberland Plate
• Finished in first 5 in Ascot Stakes, Shergar Cup Stayers and/or John Guest Brown Jack H’cap
• Placed in Doncaster Cup or Gordon Carter H’cap last time
• Drawn 1 to 12 (ideally in 1 to 5)
• Priced 16/1 or below
• Tends to be held up or settled in midfield
• Trained by Nicky Henderson, Tony Martin or Philip Hobbs

Animal that fit the profile coming out of Ascot race   Veiled - Ermyn Lodge - Phoenix Flight

 all ran well and worthy of note

 going further Veiled has hdles form as does Phoenix Flight  - (not Ermyn Lodge)

 draw is great for both Phoenix and Ermyn lodge today but not Veiled ---

 so in  lottery of a race my money goes on three !

 Ermyn lodge - well handicapped right profile right draw 

Bernie the bolt who comes with a health warning but has some powerful stats first time out balding animals and probert in saddle

Beyond with the probs with 4 yr olds this one looks the real deal stayer out of a decent box comfortable winner over hdles this ground 

 What an incredible ride from Dettori - got a decent price in running as it approached the bend - he did so bloody well to get to the front - then he drifted into the middle of the track  going out in the exhanges even more - but was pretty confident and took some of the 6s at that point for the place.. Bugger did I really  did not think he would beat my vfb nap into second place bugger bugger bugger
Result --- 1 Never Can Tell 25/1 
2 Ermyn Lodge 16/1
3 Colour Vision 20/1 4 Mount Athos 14/1  
Every year the draw is always considered a significant pointer to success in the Cesarewitch, and with good reason, even though the race distance would suggest there shouldn´t be an advantage. However, as if anyone needed reminding, Frankie Dettori produced yet another world-class ride over a trip not often used, from the widest stall, to secure success in one of the season´s most famous handicaps.

NEVER CAN TELL rarely runs badly and caught the eye on jockey bookings, but it wasn´t easy to envisage the Montjeu filly taking this considering her stalls position despite sound staying form. Her jockey got her away smartly and the pair soon got to the lead in the early stages. On turning in, Dettori made a conscious effort to take his mount towards the centre of the track down the long home straight, away from her rivals initially, a manoeuvre that quite probably proved to be the winning one. She showed grim determination in the final stages while rivals came to her, and claimed another memorable handicap success for her owner.

Ermyn Lodge attracted some market support the previous day and rewarded those who went in each-way after being given a positive ride. He is a credit to all concerned with him and was given the right sort of ride from what looked a decent draw. Lightly raced for his age, it wouldn´t be a surprise to see him back next year for another crack.

Top weight Mount Athos, the owner´s first string on cap colours, travelled strongly in midfield for much of the contest and plugged on for an honourable fourth after getting intoa leading position still going well. Undoubtedly his burden proved just too much when it counted.

The only 3yo to take part was Colour Vision, who´d won the previous Monday, for which he was carrying a 4lb penalty. He had beaten the winner when they met at Chester in July and looked to have a good chance of winning this when he made a positive surge over 3f out. However, hard though he tried, he didn´t get home as strongly as the winner. Clearly a grand staying type at his best, one would imagine he´ll be campaigned as a Cup horse next year.

QUOTES: Jamie Osborne, trainer of Never Can Tell: "She´s not very pretty and she´s not very big but she´s got a massive heart. She hates letting others go past. It was the plan to let her bowl along but I had no idea where Frankie was going down the straight."