The Emaar Middle Park Stakes is one of two group 1’s taking place at Newmarket on Saturday 8th October. AT 2.35 The race was won by Dream Ahead in 2010, who went on to win several group 1’s this year, and there are plenty of nice looking sorts entered in this year’s renewal.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age
Race for 2yos
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had previously won two or more races
9 of 10 winners won last time out (exception was 3rd in a group 1)
8 of 10 winners (last 7) posted their highest RPR or MR last time out
10 of 10 winners had won over 6F
8 of 10 winners had won a group race (2 exceptions had not previously run in a group race)
Other races
Highest placed finisher in Prix Morny: 13454111 (4-1-8) Family One
Norfolk Stakes winner (Bapak Chinta): 1123 (2-2-4)
Mill Reef Stakes winner (Caspar Netscher): 5118 (2-0-4)
Gimcrack Stakes winner (Caspar Netscher): 4216833 (1-2-7)
Prix Robert Papin winner (Family One): 2 (0-1-1)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Morny last time, finishing 1111
3 of 10 winners ran in the Phoenix Stakes, finishing 133
2 of 10 winners ran in the Windsor Castle, finishing 02
2 of 10 winners ran in the Coventry, finishing 31
2 of 10 winners ran in the Norfolk, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Anglesey, finishing 11
Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (2-1-16) has won the race 3 times since 2000. In the past 10 years his first strings have a record of 2-1-8.
Kevin Ryan (1-1-3) and Peter Chapple-Hyam (1-1-3) has both saddled the winner and a runner-up in the past 6 years.
Price
9 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting
The last 10 winners have all come from the first 5 in the betting and none have been bigger than 8/1.
Favourites (5-2-10) have won 5 of the last 10 but only show a level stakes profit of 1.63.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Previously won at least two races
· Won last time out, posting career high RPR or Emr
· Won over 6F
· Won a group race
· Won the Prix Morny, Norfolk or Mill Reef Stakes
· Finished in first 3 at Royal Ascot
· Trained by A O’Brien, P Chapple-Hyam or Kevin Ryan
· From first three in the betting
Am with the stats on this race and plumping For Family One with a small bet on Reply for Aidan O'Brien cos its run in the doncaster pattern Class shows this horse to be a big improver -have backed it at 16s and see the price is already tumbling so should be able to make a Skinner on the bet
.
Check these runners and notes for next years races
result
The inaugural staging of Future Champions Day. It´s an interesting concept but could do with some tweaking, not least because a clash of the Middle Park (week later than usual) and Dewhurst (week earlier than usual) is unsatisfactory. The last horse to complete the double was Diesis in 1982, but since the turn of the millennium 12 horses have contested both races and there were some big names among them, notably Dream Ahead (won this, fifth in Dewhurst). Another oddity was the lack of a Group 1 excusive to juvenile fillies, with the Cheveley Park and Fillies´ Mile held here two weeks earlier.
Over the past decade the winner´s RPR has ranged from 114 to 125, but none of this lot had previously run above 112. Notable absentees were Dabirsim and Harbour Watch, and a bunch finish seems to confirm the pre-race impression that this is sub-standard form.
The majority were positioned middle to stands´ side, but Balty Boys raced alone against the far rail. It was an understandable tactic considering he was drawn one and the track was narrower than usual, although Michael Hills said the colt could have done with some company. It´s hard to know if he was at an advantage, but a fair showing wasn´t a total surprise considering he´s a decent looker and had been keeping good company in sales races. That´s probably it for the season and the Free Handicap was mentioned as a possible 2012 target.
CRUSADE didn´t stay 7f when fourth in the Somerville Tattersall Stakes and the return to the trip of his maiden win saw a greatly improved performance, albeit his chance was helped by the fifth meeting trouble. His SP suggested victory was a surprise, but he´s bred to make a pretty smart type at around this distance considering his sire was runner-up in a Breeders´ Cup Sprint and his dam won a Grade 3 over 6f on dirt for Coolmore. It makes sense for him to go to the Breeders´ Cup, and while he might not have the stamina for the Juvenile or the Juvenile Turf (both around 1m), the Juvenile Sprint, a new race over 6f on the main track, could be worth a shot.
Supplementary entry Lilbourne Lad, who was back up in trip after his fourth in the Flying Childers, ran a similar race to when second in the Gimcrack, showing pace before hitting a flat spot and then keeping on. There was a suggestion afterwards he could now retire to Rathbarry Stud to help ease the demand on his increasingly popular sire, Acclamation.
The winner´s stablemate Reply, who won a Doncaster sales race over slightly further last time, simply wasn´t good enough but hung on to a place after showing speed.
The Gimcrack and Mill Reef winner Caspar Netscher probably would have got the hat-trick up with a clear run, but he was continually blocked. His finishing effort was rapid when belatedly in the open, and it was all the more impressive considering he came from last in a race in which pace horses dominated. The Breeders´ Cup is apparently still the plan and he must not be underestimated if taking the turf option.
Saigon got going too late after failing to handle the dip as well as some. The impression is this colt remains capable of better and his trainer, with the benefit of hindsight, was apparently wishing he´d run him in the Dewhurst.
West Leake Diman had plenty to find but he was suited by racing handily, though Tough As Nails again failed to run to his best.
Family One didn´t pick up after racing keenly. He looks flattered by his earlier profile as he won a weak Robert Papin and was then thrashed in thePrix Morny by Dabirsim, who although winning the Lagardere next time, recorded a lower RPR in doing so.
Peter Chapple-Hyam reportedly felt the ground was not quick enough for Samminder, and perhaps it wasn´t soft enough forRebellious Guest, who again failed to cope with Group company.
Burwaaz was too keen without cover. He has the scope to make a high-class older sprinter.
Bapak Chinta ran as though something was amiss on his belated return. Absent since winning the Norfolk, he had missed the Nunthorpe after he struck into himself (apparently had cut on inside of his hock).[RW]
QUOTES: Seamie Heffernan, rider of Crusade: "This horse wasn´t on the scene in the spring. Aidan [O´Brien] probably trained him with the backend in mind or early next year. He has plenty of pace and he relaxed well. He could be anything I suppose considering his pedigree. He gave me the feel going to the start that he was going to run big."
Am with the stats on this race and plumping For Family One with a small bet on Reply for Aidan O'Brien cos its run in the doncaster pattern Class shows this horse to be a big improver -have backed it at 16s and see the price is already tumbling so should be able to make a Skinner on the bet
.
Check these runners and notes for next years races
result
The inaugural staging of Future Champions Day. It´s an interesting concept but could do with some tweaking, not least because a clash of the Middle Park (week later than usual) and Dewhurst (week earlier than usual) is unsatisfactory. The last horse to complete the double was Diesis in 1982, but since the turn of the millennium 12 horses have contested both races and there were some big names among them, notably Dream Ahead (won this, fifth in Dewhurst). Another oddity was the lack of a Group 1 excusive to juvenile fillies, with the Cheveley Park and Fillies´ Mile held here two weeks earlier.
Over the past decade the winner´s RPR has ranged from 114 to 125, but none of this lot had previously run above 112. Notable absentees were Dabirsim and Harbour Watch, and a bunch finish seems to confirm the pre-race impression that this is sub-standard form.
The majority were positioned middle to stands´ side, but Balty Boys raced alone against the far rail. It was an understandable tactic considering he was drawn one and the track was narrower than usual, although Michael Hills said the colt could have done with some company. It´s hard to know if he was at an advantage, but a fair showing wasn´t a total surprise considering he´s a decent looker and had been keeping good company in sales races. That´s probably it for the season and the Free Handicap was mentioned as a possible 2012 target.
CRUSADE didn´t stay 7f when fourth in the Somerville Tattersall Stakes and the return to the trip of his maiden win saw a greatly improved performance, albeit his chance was helped by the fifth meeting trouble. His SP suggested victory was a surprise, but he´s bred to make a pretty smart type at around this distance considering his sire was runner-up in a Breeders´ Cup Sprint and his dam won a Grade 3 over 6f on dirt for Coolmore. It makes sense for him to go to the Breeders´ Cup, and while he might not have the stamina for the Juvenile or the Juvenile Turf (both around 1m), the Juvenile Sprint, a new race over 6f on the main track, could be worth a shot.
Supplementary entry Lilbourne Lad, who was back up in trip after his fourth in the Flying Childers, ran a similar race to when second in the Gimcrack, showing pace before hitting a flat spot and then keeping on. There was a suggestion afterwards he could now retire to Rathbarry Stud to help ease the demand on his increasingly popular sire, Acclamation.
The winner´s stablemate Reply, who won a Doncaster sales race over slightly further last time, simply wasn´t good enough but hung on to a place after showing speed.
The Gimcrack and Mill Reef winner Caspar Netscher probably would have got the hat-trick up with a clear run, but he was continually blocked. His finishing effort was rapid when belatedly in the open, and it was all the more impressive considering he came from last in a race in which pace horses dominated. The Breeders´ Cup is apparently still the plan and he must not be underestimated if taking the turf option.
Saigon got going too late after failing to handle the dip as well as some. The impression is this colt remains capable of better and his trainer, with the benefit of hindsight, was apparently wishing he´d run him in the Dewhurst.
West Leake Diman had plenty to find but he was suited by racing handily, though Tough As Nails again failed to run to his best.
Family One didn´t pick up after racing keenly. He looks flattered by his earlier profile as he won a weak Robert Papin and was then thrashed in thePrix Morny by Dabirsim, who although winning the Lagardere next time, recorded a lower RPR in doing so.
Peter Chapple-Hyam reportedly felt the ground was not quick enough for Samminder, and perhaps it wasn´t soft enough forRebellious Guest, who again failed to cope with Group company.
Burwaaz was too keen without cover. He has the scope to make a high-class older sprinter.
Bapak Chinta ran as though something was amiss on his belated return. Absent since winning the Norfolk, he had missed the Nunthorpe after he struck into himself (apparently had cut on inside of his hock).[RW]
QUOTES: Seamie Heffernan, rider of Crusade: "This horse wasn´t on the scene in the spring. Aidan [O´Brien] probably trained him with the backend in mind or early next year. He has plenty of pace and he relaxed well. He could be anything I suppose considering his pedigree. He gave me the feel going to the start that he was going to run big."
1 comment:
Am with the stats on this race and plumping For Family One with a small bet on Reply for Aidan O'Brien cos its run in the doncaster pattern Class shows this horse to be a big improver -have backed it at 16s and see the price is already tumbling so should be able to make a Skinner on the bet .
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