The Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe 2nd October

The Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe, one of the sporting highlights of the year, takes place at Longchamp on today  at 3.15 Sunday 2nd October.  good ground. Generally considered as the most prestigious horse race run on the flat in Europe, it has been won by some true greats in the past 10 years including Montjeu, Sinndar, Dalakhani, Zarkava and two years ago the mighty Sea The Stars. Last year's winner, Workforce, will be attempting to become the first horse since Alleged in 1978 to win back to back runnings of the race.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 7-9-66

4yo: 2-6-55

5yo: 1-1-20

6yo+: 0-4-13

3yos (7-9-66) have a superior record to the older horses (combined 3-11-88).

Pedigree

8 of 10 winners (last 5) were sired by a horse with a stamina index of 8.2 to 10.7. The 2 exceptions were sired by horses with stamina index of 11.6-11.7.

Surprisingly the recent trend has been towards horses with more speed in their pedigree, the last 5 winners’ sires had stamina indexes ranging from 8.2 to 9.2.
based on Pedigree -Dosage Orange Zone (possible winners based on Dosage)

Horse	DP	DPA	TOT	DI	CD	RS
Silver Pond	5-0-16-8-1	20+	30	0.76	0.00	CP
Danedream	2-2-17-2-5	DQ	28	0.81	-0.21	HU/CP

Gender

Fillies & mares (1-4-25) have gained 1 win and 4 places from 25 runners.

Unsurprising female 3yos (1-3-12) have a much better record than those aged 4+ (0-1-13).

The only female winner was the exceptional Zarakava, who had won all 6 of her previous starts, 4 group 1’s including the French 1000 Guineas, French Oaks and Prix Vermeille.

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners won last time out

10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in their last 3 starts

9 of 10 winners had run in the last 50 days

9 of 10 winners had won at least 50% of their races that season

6 of 10 winners were course winners (4 exceptions had yet to run at Longchamp)

10 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (7 had won more than one)

8 of 10 winners had won over 1M 4F (2 exceptions had been placed on only start over 1M 4F, in a group 1)

10 of 10 winners had won a race worth at least 190K

10 of 10 winners were having their first start in the race

4 of 7 winners aged 3 won a group 1 or 2 as a 2yo (one exception was unraced as 2yo, other two won maiden only start at 2)

Arc Trials

Prix Niel winner (Reliable Man): 4210115534 (3-2-10) stable have expressed they would be happier with some give - has won on good ground and major player of the darker horses

Prix Vermielle winner (Galikova): 2617 (1-1-4) again a softer surface animal on what shown so far

Prix Foy winner (Sarafina): 76907800 (0-0-8)

4 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Prix Niel, finishing 1311 Meandre (2nd to Reliable Man (he was a touch keen on this occasion and couldn´t match his old rival from 1f out. He appeared to get a little tired, but was wisely looked after by Maxime Guyon and, if supplemented for the Arc, it would be no surprise to see him make the frame, though whether he can reverse form with the winner is doubtful. His odds were pushed out to 14-1.)

Horses that ran in the Prix Niel: 94204100111853538d74 (4-3-19)

Horses that ran in the Prix Vermeille: 02076107503 (1-1-10)

Horses that ran in the Prix Foy: 07976907484297000002 (0-2-20)

Other Races

Previous season's winner (Workforce): 33 (0-2-2)

Irish Champion Stakes winner (So You Think): 3110 (2-1-4)

Grand Prix de Paris winner (Meandre): 101834 (2-1-6)

Prix Du Jockey winner (Reliable Man): 921050 (1-1-6)

Irish Derby winner (Treasure Beach): 301560 (1-1-6)

Prix Ganay winner (Planteur): 603170 (1-1-6)

Eclipse winner (So You Think): 1 (1-0-1)

Grosser Preis Von Berlin winner (Danedream): 010 (1-0-3)

King George winner (Nathaniel): 4174 (1-0-4)

Grosser Preis Von Baden winner (Danedream): 19800 (1-0-5)

Grand Prix de Saint Cloud winner (Sarafina): 9220 (0-2-4)

Prix Saint-Alary winner (Wavering): 73 (0-1-2)

Tenno Sho Spring winner (Hiruno D'Amour): 03d (0-1-2)

Prix Corrida winner (Sarafina): 270 (0-1-3)

Coronation Cup winner (St Nicholas Abbey): 09735 (0-1-5)

St Leger winner (Masked Marvel): 506 (0-0-3)

Prix Noailles winner (Grand Vent): 959d (0-0-3)

Tattersalls Gold Cup winner (So You Think): 6475 (0-0-4)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Juddmonte International, finishing 1321

2 of 10 winners ran in Irish Champion Stakes last time, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 15

2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Irish Derby, finishing 21

2 of 7 winners aged 3 (last 2) ran in the Epsom Derby, finishing 11

2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the French Derby, finishing 12

2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Grand Prix de Paris, finishing 11 

Trainers

French-trained horses: 5-10-73

British-trained horses: 3-5-38

Irish-trained horses: 2-3-25

German-trained horses: 0-1-8

Japanese-trained horses: 0-2-6

Other: 0-0-4

Andre Fabre (2-4-15), Alain de Royer-Dupre (2-2-11) and Saeed Bin Suroor (2-0-6) have each trained 2 winners of this in the past 10 years.

Aidan O’Brien (1-3-18) has only won the race once from 18 runners in the last 10 years. First strings have a record of 0-3-9.

Jonathan Pease (1-2-3) has gained 1 win and 2 places from his 3 runners in this since 2001 while Michael Stoute (1-0-10) won the race last year with Workforce.

Mick Channon (0-3-5) has saddled Youmzain to finish 2nd three times. Elle Lellouche (0-2-10) has also saddled a couple of placed finishers.

Draw (Only counting runnings with more than 10 runners)

Horses drawn bottom half: 7-11-76

Horses drawn top half: 2-7-70

Only Dalakhani and Sakhee have been able to win from the top half of the draw. In general a lower draw is preferable.

Running Style

8 of 10 winners (last 8) were held up in midfield or rear

The recent trend has been towards hold-up horses that have been unleashed from midfield in the straight to go and win the race.

Price

8 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting

The longest priced winner in the past 10 years has been 16/1 (158/10) but the other 9 winners were all priced 10/1 or below.

Favourites (4-4-10) have won 4 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 0.74.

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         3yo who won a group 1 as a 2yo (or was unbeaten at 2)

·         Sired by a horse with stamina index of 8.2 to 10.7

·         Won last time out in last 50 days

·         Won a group 1 race worth 190K+

·         Won over 1M 4F

·         Course winner (or having first run here)

·         Having first start in the race

·         Finished in first 3 in Prix Niel and/or Judmonte Int’l

·         Irish Champion Stakes or Grand Prix de Paris winner

·         From first 4 in the betting

·         Trained by Fabre, Pease, Bin Suroor or de Royer-Dupre

·         Drawn in bottom half of the stalls

·         Hold-up horse 

The ground is the worry for Reliable Man but has all the pluses for me at this price as is the supplementing of Meandre  so am playing these animals as BTL  Of the Dosage animals Danedream is drawn low in 2 and Silver Pond is drawn way out in 15 - of the animals qualifying from the stats Danedream has the most pointers though no great ground form  but must be an each way chance on the basis of supplementation alone the stable must have confidence she can make the frame.


 Result

well the ground was eventually only on the slow side of good but the winner was a different league to the rest on the day


Full marks to you who went with the Dosage figures cos the blog put up by NTf gave you a very nice 29/1 winner 


 Europe´s premier race was wide-open for the second successive year, there being no stand-out candidate, and at least two thirds of the field, 13 of which were Group/Grade 1 winners, held claims.
The pace was an ordinary one, Ballydoyle´s Irish Derby winner Treasure Beach being largely ignored in a clear lead, and though some will question the form with 66-1 shot Shareta holding on for second, she did have an easy enough time of it on the front.

The result took the record of 3yos in the race to 15 wins in the last 18 years.
With the ground the fastest it´s been for a while in the Arc, the record winning time for the race, previously held by Peintre Celebre (1997), had 0.11 seconds shaved off it by hugely impressive winner Danedream who´d been supplemented into the race just a couple of days earlier at a cost of 100,000 euros.(One of only two animals with the top breeding

Bidding to become only the second 3yo filly to win, along with the great Zarkava, since Akiyda in 1982, she was always nicely positioned from a low draw under Andrasch Starke and was noted travelling extremely well as they started the turn into the home straight. Weaving her way through, victory was never in doubt for the daughter of Lomitas once switched left to come with her challenge, and the acceleration shown to go clear was that of a truly top-class filly, her 5l winning margin being one of the biggest ever in the race.

The first German-trained winner since Star Appeal in 1975, she´d only cost 9,000 euros and started out this season with defeat in a 1m Listed race in Italy. Her rise to fame has been quite astonishing, winning the Italian Oaks with ease and twice romping to victory in 1m4f Group 1s in her homeland, on each occasion beating established older performers, including colts, with her latest wincoming in the same race Marienbard used as a prep in 2002 before coming on to victory here. Whether we see her again in Europe remains to be seen, with the Breeders´ Cup Turf or Japan Cup looking her next, and perhaps final, port of call.

 Bob