Dosage and Handicapping - reply to John B posting

Lets just look at the factors as John suggests -  Dosage alone will never help outside of  flat stake races - and though they are major pointers to the classics we can use the sire and breeding when analysing any race  as long as you don't simply focus on the stamina and sped index they are killer factors  


 Generally 
When talking about class and horses we are mainly discussing the company they keep, or the races they have been running in.  A horse who has been running in £2000 maiden claiming races at Doncaster that suddenly shows up in a Maiden at Newmarket £15000 is out-classed.  I like to see horses rising steadily in class, doing well at each level and making improvements each time out.  When you see a horse win by 10 lengths in £15,000 claiming race, with a decent speed figure, you still have to factor in draw / ground / course conformation. before you consider that horse worthy of being in an entry level allowance race or higher priced claiming race.  


class-droppers -Dropping in class to a handicap
  Figuring out how to deal with class-droppers is often more difficult than dealing with horses jumping up in class.  Consider a horse coming out of a £40,000 claiming race, he ran consistent with his recent form, and finished 3rd beaten by 3 lengths.  He shows up today in a £20,000 handicap. Why would the horse be entered at this low level?  Is the trainer trying to win a race and build the horse's confidence?  Has the horse developed a physical problem since the last race, and the trainer is trying to unload him?  Does his price reflect this obvious drop in class? if it doesn't can we find the drop sufficient reason to take the odds?


For such the  VFB analyser is the key  making sure that dosage Sires are highlited Motivator Montjeu Alfora Flemensfirth etc should appear when your reviewing the race -- Maximum importance  My analyser will highlight (Generous Sire needs 1m 4f)  


As we are now in the jumps season will concentrate my answer there and take for example the 2.40 at Chepstow yesterday.  There were four  highlited horses from dosage sires  Westerner - Generous  Presenting and Oscar.
Westerner is the sire of Grandioso who went of favourite (mainly because it is now trained by Nichols -Bumper winner Grandioso was unsurprisingly popular after his new trainer won the first division with Prospect Wells, another former Howard Johnson inmate. He looked the one to be with around three out, but failed to quicken at the next flight and just looked to need the run. Ultimately this sizeable4yo´s future lies over fences, but he ought to take a deal of beating in this sphere on his next assignment.
The winner was bred from Generous -  GOLDEN GAEL  she had the mares allowance - was last seen breaking her duck at the fourth attempt in an Exeter bumper in April and she picked up where she left off with a taking success on her hurdling début. She travelled sweetly throughout and was cruising two out. She saw off the well-backed runner-up without much fuss and looks a useful mare in the making. In good hands, she ought to really defy a penalty against her own sex, and appeals as one to follow.   in the Vfb she had the top aDH all and code and second top in Class+ with a second top rated figure for going she was ridden by O'Brien 20% strike rate at Chepstow and riding at the top of his game  trained by Scot and these two have a 27% strike rate when they combine  she was the biggest drop in class from an 8K race at Sandown
to me all of these factors from dosage down made her the pick of the animals with great breeding and was backed accordingly.


So My intention in writing this piece is to get you to make sure you use the analyser to include the dosage  sire animals. To ensure you are looking at the very first view after running the race analyser to highlight the dosage animal before going on to look at the statistical columns.


 Hope this is helpful really will appreciate your views on this brilliant topic started by John


cheers


 Bob