Monday 31 October 2011

My first notes!

-Kempton 31/10/2011 2m G Novice Hurdles HS4
Plenty Pocket
Held up by Ruby Walsh and always going very easy without any whip passed easily the others in the end. Looks capable of winning at higher mark. Pace of the race was ordinary.

Kempton 31/10/2011 2m5f G Novices Hurdle HS 4
Twentyfourcarat
- Made all or most of the work during the race from the front and finished 2nd in a challenging sprint against another horse. Looks capable of winning a race like this soon. Race was at a good pace.

31/10/11 Kempton 2m4f G HcpChs 4 Autumn Spirit went out in the betting to 7.6 and I duly lumped on--- was running such a great race was watching like a mouse in a bottle and was brilliant until she fell at the last. The winner of both her starts in similar company this season, she was up another 9lb but responded well to a really positive ride. Prior to the final obstacle her jumping was good,getting most of her rivals in trouble from some way out. She simply knuckled on landing ---Made all the running and setted a solid pace. Borrowed from Robert!

31/10/11 Kempton 2m5f G HH2
- Beyond 3rd in a a truly run race , when the horse made really all the hard work from the front and still managed 3rd in the end. Just weakened the last furlong. Very strong race, fast run.

31/10/11 Kempton 2m5f G HH2

- King of the Night despite Top Weight in a really true run race very fast looked an still an easy winner in the end with room for more. Very good performance under real race condtions. Looked still fresh and not ridden out by Ruby Walsh.

31/10/2011 Kempton 3m G CH4
IHeardu
- Went 2nd but needs a faster race to play out finishing strenghts, just failed to win this because the race was slow and the winner is a more handy finisher type. Needs a faster race with real Frontrunner and play out stamina strength.

31/10/2011 Kempton 3m G CH4
Handtheprizeover
-Won this race coming well in the end, is they type that needs a slow or moderate pace and just coming in the end. I have doubts with this horse, when there is a race with more pace which is truly run, then I cant see this horse winning. Todays race was not really run very fast no real frontrunner.

31/10/11 Kempton 2m G HH4 Conditional
First Avenue
-Moderate Pace, but First Avenue struggled race behind the field and there was concern, if it could race off the pace but stay close to the field. Had phases of coming close and far to the field 3/4 of the race but managed to come close on the outer last bend which cost a bit of room and had a not the best jump. Finished 2nd accelerating like a train and maybe needs a better jockey. Bridle horse and is worth betting Inrunning if close to the field at the end. If there is too much pace I have concerns, that the horse will stay in contact with the field.

Need some feedback of you robert, hopefully I will improve my judgement.

My ideas I would like to disscuss in the future,

1.Judging every race of the day and keeping a note of every runner of the race in these 3 points:

1. Fast
2. Moderate
3. Slow

Maybe its worth just note this everyday and really type that for every runner in. Notes for a special horse can can be added too of course. Maybe its good if you open up your VFB and see the stats of a good horse at nice odds and then the note pops up that his last Hcp was in truly run race? or its maybe a value too lay a horse which finished 2nd in slow race and even weakened in the end?
So in creating notes I would not just make notes for certain horses, i would also put a F for fast M for moderate and S for Slow in all horses notebook.

2. These bridle horses are really good oppurtunities to have an late bet Inrunning at high odds, if you can watch the race at a decent connection, with not too much delay. For example First Avenue I wouldnt put up a high odds without watching the race, it just makes sense to me if it arrives close to field and you see it hypothetically odds of 25 show up because its still behind every horse and then you get the edge of knowing what kind of horse it is.

3. I would like to have more information about the dosage sires, i have no clue but it seems important to me to know what kind of class a horse is capable of.

4. Is there anybody out there who has for every course and distance a system analyser break in the VFB down saved? I would be really interested how different running styles affect outcomes on certain courses and distances?
A breakdown of every course and distance, every Trainer, every jockey, every sire would be a great statistical tool to have in hands when the raceday starts, because I think you really have to go into every Course distance into itself.
5. Pace analysis seems to be crucial even on the NH any sources of experts in this kind of area are welcomed.
6. The private Hcps feature on VfB, is it useful? how do you compile own Hcp Ratings? what is the measurement and makes it sense?

6. Sharing ideas of creating a good database of notes videos and individual importance of evaluating a race.

Cheers! rade

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