Saturday 22 October 2011

RACING POST AND THE ROAN CHASE 2221011

Fields have cut up so badly for these two great races
Roan chase even with three runners will be a thriller - if the real Master Minded turns up it could be the equiv of a walk over - have made money over the years with Albertas Run who I think is the best BTL horse normally but prices maybe too skinny in a three horse race.
Question is why is Bown running his virtual novice Pure Faith against the big boys? well the weight allowance for one thing  and over the years has had both his runners make the frame with similar profiles to today. Is a front runner who is fitter from runs than the top two - has course and ground form and this is a front runners race. the top two are way above him in class and past performance. 
If he can get the lead his fitness will be hard to crack - favourites have a poor performance and Albertas is my perennial dodge pot without the whip -- fun bet on the Bowen Horse as a btl cos he should shorten really well during the race and go back out at the end of the race as they come to get him.
result --- This limited Grade 2 handicap signalled the first big clash of the British jumps campaign with last season´s one-two from the Melling Chase, Master Minded and ALBERTAS RUN, renewing rivalry and the market strongly suggested that form would be confirmed. There was a turn-up, however, as Master Minded ran flat and Albertas Run was pushed all the way to the line by the apparent no-hoper Pure Faith, who had appeared to be running for place money only.

Albertas Run had bounced back to his best at the Cheltenham Festival with a fourth win at the top level when gamely defending the Ryanair Chase, but he never looked that happy when beaten nine lengths in second by Master Minded over C&D on his final outing of last season. The betting suggested he would again play second fiddle to his old rival, but he was getting 10lb from him and was allowed to dictate matters from the front. His attitude saw him home in front from the last, but there has to be a question mark over just what he achieved in scrambling home from the 136-rated runner-up.

His season will no doubt be geared around his bid to win the Ryanair for a third successive year, but he will be an 11yo in the new year and there will be younger, more progressive rivals waiting in the wings.

Pure Faith is a course winner but faced a tall order from 22lb out of the handicap. He ran a huge race in defeat, jumping neatly throughout and travelling as well as anything. The handicapper will have to react to this and his official mark could take abig hike. With that in mind connections will surely be tempted to turn him out again today, when he is due to concede weight all round in a novice chase over C&D.

Master Minded was reported to have been in great shape prior to this comeback and got smashed up in the betting. Taken wide throughout, he jumped superbly at times but failed to convince whenever he was asked for a big one and he was in real trouble after an error three out. He was beaten after the next and clearly failed to give his true running. This leaves him with an awful lot to prove, but connections later said he probably needed the run as he had a decent blow afterwards. He has bounced back before.

Racing Post is a shambles with the current betting - usually stuffed full of Montjeu bred animals the only one today is the Camalot animal from Obrien (already tipped for next years derby)  - fitness is not on its side but must be scorching up the gallops  for this yard to be backing it - and it has the pace maker  so its a no bet race at these odds though the fav has won the last 6 runnings the dsr is not tempting me in at that price - alternatives are not glaring (Gosden has a poor record  and his runner  Fencing could be the lay and Zip Top a possible angle if it does not swerve off to the right at the stalls like he did last time for a bet in running

Good luck today guys


 Rob

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

I backed Albertas as soon as McCoy took it to the front at the start. Master Minded isn't the horse he was and McCoy did well to get Albertas home without using the whip ... too much! Do they have a market on which National Hunt jock will get the most whip bans - McCoy will probably lose about 50 days!!

Anonymous said...

Pure Faith - as you said Bob, why on earth did he run it? It'll take a massive hike up the handicap and will be difficult to win with now ...