Hi Guys - very good start to the group blog and happy that we have such great authors - not much racing for me today as getting ready to Euro tunnel my way to Paris with Nursey for the weekend. Have completed as Much as I can on the outstanding Races for the next two days and have included the Arc where the ground is already described as desperate -- may be shopping Saturday (what do I mean maybe?)
have dropped the newsletter and have put up most recent Comments instead - hope you enjoy the new layout and play nicely together while Gramps is away - don't want to spend next Monday deleting go to war posts.
For me it is an absolute pleasure to have met you and share our interest in racing.
Please spend some time completing your thoughts on the trend races --remember this is not a tipping blog - more a share of ideas and a learning curve for all of us. - if you want to swop tips please leave them for our private forum
And an old boy Homily --- this was from my Dad to me aged about 7 yrs --- "Now Robert you could say this advice is priceless" Yes Dad
"Are you really listening ?" - Yes Dad
"Good. Now if you trust in yourself.".. - Yes? "And believe in your dreams" ..... Yes? "And Follow your stars"....he went on --Yes Dad
"Then you will be beaten every time by people who spend their time working hard -learning things and are not as lazy as believing in all that destiny and stars stuff."
winning - really winning - is all about working at it and not believing that cos you say so the horse will win
take notes guys take notes and love that withdraw button will reply to all new "joiners" as soon as I can
best of Luck Bob
Thursday, 30 September 2010
Sun Chariot Stakes Saturday 2nd
The Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes takes place on Saturday 2nd October at Newmarket on the supporting card to the Cambridgeshire. Run over a mile for fillies and mares aged 3 or older, it was made a group 1 in 2004 and has been won by some very useful horses including Attraction and Dress To Thrill.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
W | P | R | |
3yo | 8 | 7 | 56 |
4yo | 2 | 7 | 25 |
5yo | 0 | 3 | 9 |
6yo+ | 0 | 1 | 2 |
3yos (8-7-56) have won 8 of the last 10 runnings although that’s hardly surprising seeing as they have accounted for approximately 61% of the runners in the last 10 years.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out
8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out
9 of 10 winners had run in the last 40 days
10 of 10 winners had run 4 to 7 times that season
10 of 10 winners had won listed or group race
5 of 6 winners had won a group race (since it became a group 1)
Only 2 of 10 winners had previously won a group 1
10 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F
Other races
Previous season's winner (Sahpresa): 9 (0-0-1)
Windsor Forest winner (Strawberrydaiquiri): 1223 (1-3-4)
Eternal Stakes winner (Seta): 1 (1-0-1)
Falmouth Stakes winner (Music Show): 2247 (0-2-4)
Valiant Stakes winner (Field Day): 8384 (0-1-4)
Atlanta Stakes winner (Seta): 0934 (0-1-4)
Dahlia winner (Strawberrydaiquiri): 355 (0-0-3)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Matron Stakes last time, finishing 21123
4 of 10 winners ran in the Oak Tree Stakes, finishing 1355
3 of 10 winners ran in the Falmouth, finishing 323
2 of 10 winners ran in the Brownstown Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Coronation Stakes, finishing 17
2 of 10 winners ran in the Irish 1000 Guineas, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the English 1000 Guineas, finishing 16
Trainers
British-trained runners: 7-16-79
Irish-trained runners: 2-0-6
French-trained runners: 1-2-6
German-trained runners: 0-0-1
Irish and French trained runners have gained 3 wins and 2 places from approximately 13% of the total runners.
Michael Stoute (1-3-10), Rod Collet (1-1-2), Mark Johnston (1-1-3) and Barry Hills (1-1-6) have all saddled the winner and a placed finisher in the past 10 runnings.
Saeed Bin Suroor (1-0-1) and Mick Channon (1-0-4) have also both saddled the winner in the past 10 years.
James Fanshawe (0-4-9) has seen 4 of his 9 runners make the places.
Price
No strong trends on the price though recently longer priced runners have been more prevalent with the last 4 winners going off 12/1, 16/1, 8/1 and 16/1.
Favourites (2-4-10) have won 2 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 4.12.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 3 or 4
· First 3 last time out while posting highest RPR
· Run in the last 40 days
· Run 4 to 7 times this season
· Won a group race
· Won over 7F or 8F
· Finished in first 3 in Windsor Forest, Matron or Falmouth Stakes
· Trained in Ireland or France
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Result ---1 Sahpresa 9/2 2 Strawberrydaiquiri 5/1 3 Rainfall 6/1 This was not the strongest Sun Chariot, but it was certainly competitive. They again raced on the far side and there was a brisk early pace on, with the race really developing 3f out. Solid form.
Last year´s winner SAHPRESA defended her title witha stylish success, becoming the first back-to-back winner since Luca Cumani´s Free Guest 25 years earlier, on ground softer than she cares for. She warmed up for this with when readily beating Dalgar in a Group 3 over 7f at Longchamp last month, and the only worry was the slow surface.
The race was run very much to suit, though, and she went through the ground without hassle. Indeed she could´ve been called the winner passing the furlong marker. It was just her third outing this year, she wasn´t rightwhen reappearing in the Windsor Forest on her seasonal return at Royal Ascot, and connections will no doubt be looking to travel her again. Another trip to Japan next month is most likely.
The admirably tough Strawberrydaiquiri ran another solid race in defeat in the Nassau Stakes over 1m2f on her previous outing in July, and was having her first run for a new owner. She had yet to race on ground this slow, but there was a chance she could improve for it and she turned in a sterling effort in defeat. She displayed real guts when winning the Windsor Forest in June, when well ahead of Sahpresa, and was expected to build on her fourth in this race last year behind that rival. She wasn´t ridden as aggressively as has often been the case over this tripin the past, and looking at the way she was coming back towards the finish perhaps more positive tactics would´ve suited. It still rates a career-best in defeat, however, and she really deserves to win at the top level, with connections intending to keepher in training next year. No doubt she will remain vulnerable to a classy filly with a turn of foot, however.
Rainfall gained a confidence booster when winning in Listed company at Ascot a week earlier and didn´t go unbacked on this return to a Group 1. She got ridden to get this extra distance and was motoring home late in the day, without threatening the first pair. She holds an entry in the 6f event in Canada later this month, but connections later said she is unlikely to take that up. She will stay in training as a 4-y-o, though, and would be open to improvement next year. With that in mind it wouldn´t be at all surprising to see her back for another crack next season, and she ought to get the trip better then too.
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Result ---1 Sahpresa 9/2 2 Strawberrydaiquiri 5/1 3 Rainfall 6/1 This was not the strongest Sun Chariot, but it was certainly competitive. They again raced on the far side and there was a brisk early pace on, with the race really developing 3f out. Solid form.
Last year´s winner SAHPRESA defended her title witha stylish success, becoming the first back-to-back winner since Luca Cumani´s Free Guest 25 years earlier, on ground softer than she cares for. She warmed up for this with when readily beating Dalgar in a Group 3 over 7f at Longchamp last month, and the only worry was the slow surface.
The race was run very much to suit, though, and she went through the ground without hassle. Indeed she could´ve been called the winner passing the furlong marker. It was just her third outing this year, she wasn´t rightwhen reappearing in the Windsor Forest on her seasonal return at Royal Ascot, and connections will no doubt be looking to travel her again. Another trip to Japan next month is most likely.
The admirably tough Strawberrydaiquiri ran another solid race in defeat in the Nassau Stakes over 1m2f on her previous outing in July, and was having her first run for a new owner. She had yet to race on ground this slow, but there was a chance she could improve for it and she turned in a sterling effort in defeat. She displayed real guts when winning the Windsor Forest in June, when well ahead of Sahpresa, and was expected to build on her fourth in this race last year behind that rival. She wasn´t ridden as aggressively as has often been the case over this tripin the past, and looking at the way she was coming back towards the finish perhaps more positive tactics would´ve suited. It still rates a career-best in defeat, however, and she really deserves to win at the top level, with connections intending to keepher in training next year. No doubt she will remain vulnerable to a classy filly with a turn of foot, however.
Rainfall gained a confidence booster when winning in Listed company at Ascot a week earlier and didn´t go unbacked on this return to a Group 1. She got ridden to get this extra distance and was motoring home late in the day, without threatening the first pair. She holds an entry in the 6f event in Canada later this month, but connections later said she is unlikely to take that up. She will stay in training as a 4-y-o, though, and would be open to improvement next year. With that in mind it wouldn´t be at all surprising to see her back for another crack next season, and she ought to get the trip better then too.
Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe sunday 3rd Oct
The Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe, one of the sporting highlights of the year, takes place at Longchamp on Sunday 3rd October. Generally considered as the most prestigious horse race run on the flat in Europe, it has been won by some true greats in the past 10 years including Montjeu, Sinndar, Dalakhani, Zarkava and last year Sea The Stars.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
W | P | R | |
3yo | 7 | 10 | 65 |
4yo | 2 | 5 | 51 |
5yo | 1 | 1 | 17 |
6yo+ | 0 | 4 | 12 |
3yos (7-10-65) have a superior record to the older horses (combined 3-10-80).
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners won last time out
10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in their last 3 starts
10 of 10 winners had run in the last 50 days
10 of 10 winners had won at least 50% of their races that season
7 of 10 winners had won at Longchamp (3 exceptions not run at track)
10 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (8 of 10 had won more than one)
8 of 10 winners had won over 1M 4F (both exceptions were placed on only start over 1M 4F)
10 of 10 winners had won a race worth at least 190K
10 of 10 winners were having their first start in the race
5 of 7 winners aged 3 won a group 1 or 2 as a 2yo (1 exception was unraced as 2yo, other won a maiden only start at 2)
Arc Trials
Prix Niel winner (Behkabad): 1421011553 (4-2-10)
Prix Foy winner (Duncan): 47690780 (0-1-8)
Prix Vermeille winner: 32617 (1-2-5)
Other Races
Grand Prix de Paris winner (Behkabad): 10183 (2-1-5)
Irish Champion Stakes winner (Cape Blanco): 311 (2-1-3)
Irish Derby winner (Cape Blanco): 130156 (2-1-6)
Epsom Derby winner (Workforce): 1305501 (2-1-7)
Previous season's Prix Des Chenes winner (Behkabad): 11 (2-0-2)
Prix de Diane winner (Sarafina): 22717 (1-2-5)
Prix Du Lys winner (Goldwaki): 401 (1-0-3)
Grand Prix de Saint Cloud winner (Plumania): 4922 (0-2-4)
Prix Corrida winner (Plumania): 27 (0-1-2)
Takarazuka Kinen winner (Nakayama Festa): 03 (0-1-2)
Coronation Cup winner (Fame And Glory): 0973 (0-1-4)
5 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Prix Niel, finishing 11311
3 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Irish Derby, finishing 121
2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Derby, finishing 11
2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the French Derby, finishing 12
2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Grand Prix de Paris, finishing 11
4 of 10 winners ran in the Judmonte International, finishing 1321
2 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Champion Stakes last time, finishing 11
Trainers
French Trained horses: 5-11-72
Irish-trained horses: 3-3-24
British-trained horses: 2-5-34 (0-5-29 without Godolphin)
German-trained horses: 0-1-7
Japanese-trained horses: 0-1-4
Other: 0-0-4
The last British-based winner (not trained by Bin Suroor) was Carroll House in 1989.
Andre Fabre (2-4-14), Alain de Royer-Dupre (2-1-10) and Saeed Bin Suroor (2-0-5) have each trained 2 winners of this in the past decade.
Aidan O’Brien (1-3-18) has only won the race once from 18 runners in the last 10 years. First strings have a record of 0-3-8.
Jonathan Pease (1-2-3) has gained 1 win and 2 places from his 3 runners in this since 2000.
Mick Channon (0-3-4) has saddled Youmzain to finish 2nd in the last 3 years. Elle Lellouche (0-2-8) has also saddled a couple of placed finishers.
Michael Stoute (0-0-9) has seen all 9 of his runners finish out of the places in the last 10 runnings. but today runs the derby winner workforce who has been supplemented --
Draw (Only counting runnings with more than 10 runners)
Horses drawn in bottom half: 6-9-66
Horses drawn in top half: 2-7-61
Only Dalakhani and Sakhee have been able to win from the top half of the draw. In general a lower draw is preferable.
Running Style
7 of 10 winners (last 7) were held up in midfield or rear
The recent trend has been towards hold-up horses who have been unleashed from midfield in the straight to go and win the race.
Price
8 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
The longest priced winner in the past 10 years has been 16/1 (158/10) but the other 9 winners were all priced 10/1 or below.
Favourites (4-4-10) have won 4 of the last 10 (including last 2), giving a level stakes profit of 0.74.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 3
· Won last time out in last 50 days
· Won a group 1 race worth 190K+
· Won over 1M 4F
· Course winner (or having first run here)
· Having first start in the race
· Finished in first 3 in Prix Niel and/or Judmonte Int’l
· Epsom/Irish Derby, Irish Champion or Grand Prix de Paris winner
· From first 4 in the betting
· Trained in France or Ireland or a Godolphin runner
· Trained by Fabre, Pease, Bin Suroor or de Royer-Dupre
· Drawn in bottom half of the stalls
· Hold-up horse
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Result Having been spoilt the previous two years with top-class performances from Zarkava and Sea The Stars, this year´s Arc looked to lack star quality beforehand. There were still 12 individual Group 1 winners in the field though, and as the betting suggestedit was a competitive affair. The soft ground and the presence of a quality pacemaker for Planteur promised to make this a real test of stamina, but in reality the early gallop wasn´t that strong, a few raced keenly, and as the field bunched up there was plenty of trouble in running. The winning time was the slowest since Sakhee won in 2001 but still over three seconds quicker than that recorded by Montjeu in heavy ground in 1999.
In what was a rough race, Ryan Moore, who, despite being drawn in stall eight, managed to bag a rail position towards the back of the pack, threaded a passage through on the Derby winner WORKFORCE and, in a final-furlong duel with the Japanese raider Nakayama Festa, proved the stronger jockey, and his mount just saw it out the better to give Sir Michael Stoute his first winner of the race. Although a brilliant winner of the Derby, Workforce had run a stinker in the King George afterwards, and, with no explanation forthcoming for that defeat and little news on his wellbeing since, he came here with something to prove, not least his ability to handle soft ground. Despite being one of the least experienced in the line-up, he bravely quickened up between horses 2f out, soon after which he appeared to give Lope De Vega a bump (head-on camera showed him to be not at fault, confirmed in the subsequent stewards´ inquiry), and then he settled down to battle it out with the runner-up inside the last. Credit goes to his trainer for getting him back to his best after Ascot, and, given how lightly raced he is one would imagine that there could be even better to come from him as a 4-y-o, although if history is any guide it´ll be a pleasant surprise if he stays in training.
Nakayama Festa beat Buena Vista to take a Japanese Grade1 race in June and shaped quite well when runner-up in a muddling Prix Foy last time out. This was a big step up on that effort, especially as his rider had to snatch up rounding the turn into the straight as things got a bit tight. He quickened up well alongside the winner, and it was probably just strength from the saddle on Workforce that made the difference. He could well become a regular in the big international races now, with the likes of the Sheema Classic a possible target early next year, but in the short term he´ll surely now be aimed at the Japan Cup.
The Prix de Diane winner Sarafina emerges with plenty of credit, as she was keen, squeezed up early and forced to drop back in the field, then badly hampered along the false straight as the weakening Midas Touch fell back into her. With just three behind her turning in, she was switched to the outside and then stayed on really strongly to take third. There had been concerns about her stamina, but those were quashed, and in a clean race there´s every reason to think that she would have given the winner plenty to do. This was only her fifth start, she has plenty more to offer, and one can only hope that she´s kept in training. She´d be an interesting contender for the Breeders´ Cup Filly & Mare Turf if allowed to take her chance.
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Result Having been spoilt the previous two years with top-class performances from Zarkava and Sea The Stars, this year´s Arc looked to lack star quality beforehand. There were still 12 individual Group 1 winners in the field though, and as the betting suggestedit was a competitive affair. The soft ground and the presence of a quality pacemaker for Planteur promised to make this a real test of stamina, but in reality the early gallop wasn´t that strong, a few raced keenly, and as the field bunched up there was plenty of trouble in running. The winning time was the slowest since Sakhee won in 2001 but still over three seconds quicker than that recorded by Montjeu in heavy ground in 1999.
In what was a rough race, Ryan Moore, who, despite being drawn in stall eight, managed to bag a rail position towards the back of the pack, threaded a passage through on the Derby winner WORKFORCE and, in a final-furlong duel with the Japanese raider Nakayama Festa, proved the stronger jockey, and his mount just saw it out the better to give Sir Michael Stoute his first winner of the race. Although a brilliant winner of the Derby, Workforce had run a stinker in the King George afterwards, and, with no explanation forthcoming for that defeat and little news on his wellbeing since, he came here with something to prove, not least his ability to handle soft ground. Despite being one of the least experienced in the line-up, he bravely quickened up between horses 2f out, soon after which he appeared to give Lope De Vega a bump (head-on camera showed him to be not at fault, confirmed in the subsequent stewards´ inquiry), and then he settled down to battle it out with the runner-up inside the last. Credit goes to his trainer for getting him back to his best after Ascot, and, given how lightly raced he is one would imagine that there could be even better to come from him as a 4-y-o, although if history is any guide it´ll be a pleasant surprise if he stays in training.
Nakayama Festa beat Buena Vista to take a Japanese Grade1 race in June and shaped quite well when runner-up in a muddling Prix Foy last time out. This was a big step up on that effort, especially as his rider had to snatch up rounding the turn into the straight as things got a bit tight. He quickened up well alongside the winner, and it was probably just strength from the saddle on Workforce that made the difference. He could well become a regular in the big international races now, with the likes of the Sheema Classic a possible target early next year, but in the short term he´ll surely now be aimed at the Japan Cup.
The Prix de Diane winner Sarafina emerges with plenty of credit, as she was keen, squeezed up early and forced to drop back in the field, then badly hampered along the false straight as the weakening Midas Touch fell back into her. With just three behind her turning in, she was switched to the outside and then stayed on really strongly to take third. There had been concerns about her stamina, but those were quashed, and in a clean race there´s every reason to think that she would have given the winner plenty to do. This was only her fifth start, she has plenty more to offer, and one can only hope that she´s kept in training. She´d be an interesting contender for the Breeders´ Cup Filly & Mare Turf if allowed to take her chance.
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