Revised Gold cup Saturday morning post

Ayr Gold Cup Saturday 18th September

The Ayr Gold Cup, which takes place on the Saturday 18th September, is the most valuable sprint handicap run in Europe. Run over 6 furlongs, it has been dominated in recent years by Dandy Nicholls. Horses that don’t make the cut for this run in the Silver Cup earlier on Saturday and the Bronze Cup on Friday, both race can often provide clues to the best place to be drawn.

 Last year result. on good ground- 

Jimmy Styles ( age 5) 14/1 - drawn 15   

2nd - Barney Magrew(age 6) 20/1 drawn 6  

3rd Knott in Wood (age 7) drawn 9 (11/1)  

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Last years winner of the Silver cup (same day same ground) was 

kaldoun Kingdom out of the 2 box 8/1 fav (runs today Gold cup drawn 9 ( Top weight 9-10) 

2nd was Lowther 28/1 out of the 3 box

3rd was Green manalishi out of the 11 box

 you can see from that stat that the came from opposite sides of the track same day same ground !!!!!!

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:


Positive Blue negative Red possibles Purple 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

	W	P	R
3yo	1	1	35
4yo	4	8	78
5yo	3	10	57
6yo+	2	7	49
7yo+	0	4	46

Horses aged between 4 and 6 have won 9 of the last 10

Horses aged 7 or older have not won the race since 1993 and only 4 of their 46 representatives in the last 10 years have made the frame.

Weights

Horses carrying 9-7 or over: 1-4-24

Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 4-13-81

Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 2-8-110

Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 3-5-50

8 of the last 9 winners carried between 8-6 and 9-3, though admittedly they represented the bulk of the runners, so not an overwhelming trend.

Official Ratings

Horses rated 101 or higher: 1-10-74

Horses rated 90 to 100: 8-18-174

Horses rated 89 or less: 1-2-17

In recent years the trend has been towards higher rated horses. The last 5 winners were all rated 97 or higher and 17 of 20 placed horses in the past 5 years were rated 97+.

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners ran in a class 3 or better last time out

(8 of  those 10 winners had won a class 3 or better)

10 of 10 winners had run at least 4 times that season

9 of 10 winners had won over at 6 furlongs (exception won over 7F)

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had their last run at Haydock, Goodwood or Doncaster

8 of 10 winners had run in past 21 days (2 exceptions ran in past 50 days)

7 of 10 winners were unplaced last time out

5 of 10 winners had run in a group 1 or 2
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Jimmy Styles): 05050 (0-0-5)

Skybet Dash winner (Hawkeyethenoo): 403 (0-2-3)

Great St Wilfrid winner (Damika): 4072 (0-2-4)

Stewards Cup winner (Evens And Odds): 7020 (0-1-4)

Portland Handicap winner (Poet's Place): 300000 (0-1-6)

5 of 10 winners ran in Stewards Cup, finishing 12th, 27th, 15th, 16th, 22nd

4 of 10 winners ran in Great St Wilfrid, finishing 3004

2 of 10 winners ran in Portland Handicap, finishing 40

Trainers

Dandy Nicholls (5-4-50) has won 5 of the last 10 runnings of this race although he has saddled almost 19% of the total runners.(interesting Jockey booking for him today is Frankie Dettori - strike rate at ayr for Frankie is all the 6flngs tracks has ridden 2 from 12 wins at 6flngs for the trainer from 12 rides -and 3 wins at ayr for a level stake profit of £11.38)

Richard Fahey (1-3-10) and Kevin Ryan (1-2-16) have also both saddled the winner and multiple places in the past 10 years.

Clive Cox (1-0-6) saddled Jimmy Styles to win the race last year, and he is attempting to win again this season while Roger Charlton (0-2-4) has had a couple of placed runners.

Three trainers who have struggled in this race are


 Jim Goldie (0-0-16), Hawkeyethenoo


Mick Channon (0-0-10) Rilyskeepingthefaith 


 David Barron (0-0-10). Flipando and Poets Place

Draw

Horses drawn 1 to 9: 4-11-90

Horses drawn 10 to 18: 3-12-90

Horses drawn 19 or higher: 3-7-85 (interesting today that the money is for animals these boxes with the ground conditions)

 Last 5 years  has the following  draw addage -

22(+3) - 21/23/24/25/26/27/ 5/14/13 (+2)     --- 2/3/4/6/11/12/20 (+1) ----- 7/8/10/15/1(0)16/9(-2)   17/18/19 (-2)

Historically for all 6flng races at Ayr without any other consideration. This figure is plus or minus advantage to the horse ratings of the Vfb - not sure what your particular form book rates but for example  drawn 22  Senor Peltro  gives him an advantage of +2 to his  Official Rating of 100

Visual form book rating is 109 +2 - (111) 

The winners have come from all over the track. The best option is to view the races run over the sprint course on Thursday, Friday and early Saturday to source clues about the draw. UPDATE 9AM Saturday 

The stands' rail looked the place be on the sprint course on Friday and the GoingStick readings seemed to indicate that once again it may have an advantage over the center and far side of the track, although the discrepancy was not as great as Friday. Marley added: "The GoingStick for the track as a whole is 9.2. On the sprint course the far side is 9.6, the centre 9.8 and stands' side 10.2. Which would indicate the ground has evened out overnight."The reading before racing on Friday had been 9.3 on the far side, 9.5 in the centre and 10.1 on the stands' side.   

Price

8 of 10 winners (last 5) were priced between 10/1 and 20/1

There has been no winner priced shorter than 10/1 in last 10 years. The longest priced winner has been 33/1 (twice, 2000 & 2004).

Favourites (0-3-11) have a shocking record in this race having failed to win any of the last 10 and only finding 3 places, level stakes loss of 10.00.

Dosage -  this factor has been fully explored by Ben and his view can be found at http://www.narrowing-the-field.com/2010/09/is-dandy-ready-to-strike-again-in-gold.html

I would recommend you visit his site to see the fantastic stats for dosage animals this race - you will be surprised and may make you even more convinced of your selection(or otherwise) he indicates the pace factor and that there is plenty of potential for both sides of the track.

Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 4 to 6

·         Carrying 8-6 to 9-3

·         Officially rated 97 or higher (plus the draw factor as above)

·         Run at least 4 times this season

·         Ran in last 21 days in a class 3 or better

·         Had last run at Haydock, Goodwood or Doncaster

·         Won at class 3 level or higher

·         Won over 6F

·         Trained by Dandy Nicholls, Richard Fahey or Roger Charlton

·         Priced between 10/1 and 20/1


 Conclusion This has to be for me a dutching race. 

Noverretogo  age 4 √ has won a class 2√ (ascot and Newmarket)  5^th in the Goodwood √ cup (beaten only 1.5 lengths.behind Evens and Odds Jonny mudball  Rileyskeepingthefaith) drawn 20√. Ran to a mark of 99 that day –runs off 101√ and has that good claimer Ross Atkins taking off a valuable 5lbs. Last run was 49 days ago√ unplaced last time out √ run 4 times this season √

Longshot and joker(s)

  Redford  age 5 √ Nichols√ Jockey booking for him today is Frankie Dettori 28dsr√ ran class 2 last time √ drawn 17(-2)

Striking Spirit  (place market bet) age 5√ speed animal with pace drawn 27√ 2^nd of27 runner ascot class 2√run to 98 and off 99 today√


 these three for me 

 have only now seen that Martin and myself agree  on Noverretogo and has put up (additional to mine) reasons  (posted it before me 

√) 

 We agreed yesterday on the bronze cup winner - lets hope we do the double - will love everyone else's opinion and why their selection will win or place - god luck all will send the newsletter out now - and post on Facebook - dont forget to go to Bens site 

 this is what racing is all about 

 cheers Guys

 Bobt


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Result  The winner was selected by NTF --- hope you went to Bens site!

1st (25) Redford 14-1

 2nd (18) Victoire De Lyphar 8-1

 3rd (11) Hitchens 25-1

 4th (6) Genki 8-1

 26 ran

 WIN £11.20

 CSF £101.99

 Tote Place PL: £2.60, £2.80, £9.70, £2.50