Blue Positive Purple Place Red Negative
The Shadwell Middle Park Stakes is one of two group 1’s taking place at Newmarket on Friday 1st October. There are 8 runners left in at this morning and the ground will be soft if this weather continues with the course forecast rain !
Some of the most promising 2yo prospects including Strong Suit, √ Dream Ahead √ and Temple Meads √
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age - Race for 2yos
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had run at least twice (all have )
10 of 10 winners had won over 6F (Samuel Morse has not!)
9 of 10 winners won last time out (exception was 3rd in a group 1) Temple Meads and Dream Ahead) Zoffany was third in group 1 / Morse was 4th in group 1 / Irish Field was 5th in group 1 behind Dream Ahead - the rest have no trend to match this
8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out
8 of 10 winners had won a group race (2 exceptions had not previously run in a group race)
Other races
Prix Morny winner (Dream Ahead): 413411 (3-1-6)
Norfolk Stakes winner (Approve): 112 (2-1-3)
Mill Reef Stakes winner (Temple Meads): 511 (2-0-3)
Coventry Stakes winner (Strong Suit): 1324 (1-2-4)
Gimcrack Stakes winner (Approve): 9421683 (1-1-7)
Prix Robert Papin winner (Irish Field): 2 (0-1-1)
4 of 4 Irish-trained winners ran in the Phoenix Stakes, finishing 1133
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Morny last time, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners ran in the Coventry Stakes, finishing 31
2 of 10 winners ran in the Anglesey Stakes, finishing 11
Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (3-1-17) has won the race 3 times in the past decade though has not saddled a runner in the race in the past 2 years. His first strings have a record of 3-1-8. runs Samuel Morse ( Tongue tied and Visor 1st time)
Peter Chapple-Hyam (1-1-3) has saddled the winner and a runner-up in the past 4 years runs Foghorn leghorn while Jeremy Noseda (0-2-3) has saddled 2 runners-up in this since 2000 (one of which was subsequently given the race when a banned substance was found in the winner’s sample).
Price
9 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting
The last 10 winners have all come from the first 5 in the betting and none have been bigger than 8/1.
Favourites (5-2-10) have won 5 of the last 10 but only show a level stakes profit of 1.21.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Won last time out, posting career high RPR
· Won over 6F
· Won a group race
· Won the Prix Morny, Norfolk or Mill Reef Stakes
· Trained by O’Brien, Chapple-Hyam or Noseda
· First three in the betting
will not have time in the morning to update the card - hope you have a fancy and this helps
Bobt
No comments:
Post a Comment