Saturday -Both trends races - 1 post

FRIDAY, 24 SEPTEMBER 2010

Saturday -Both trends races - 1 post

 Blue - positive Red Negative - Purple place chances


SET YOUR ANALYSER --- the racing post  this morning gives the straight course as G/soft and round course g/sft sot in places - CURRENTLY 8 RUNNERS
 The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes takes place at Ascot this Saturday 25th September at 4.15. A group 1 run over a mile, it has been won by some top class animals in the past 10 years. The winner automatically qualifies for the Breeders Cup Mile but 2008 winners Raven’s Pass went on to win the Breeders Cup Classic and last year's winner Rip Van Winkle was sent off favourite for the Classic.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

	W	P	R
3yo	5	11	39
4yo	1	1	18
5yo	4	0	11
6yo+	0	2	8

3 year olds have won 5 of the last 10 and filled 16 of 24 places from just over half the runners.

5 year olds also appear to do well having landed 4 of the last 10 from less than 15% of the runners.

Gender

Fillies and mares (0-1-7) have managed just one place from 7 runners in the period (8/1, 66/1, 9/2, 8/1, 3/1, 5/2, 11/4, 14/1). The last female to win this was Milligram in 1987.

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season

9 of 10 winners had won a group race

9 of 10 winners had previously won over a mile (exception was 2nd only previous run over the trip)

7 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 last time out

6 of 10 winners had won a group 1

Other Races

Previous season's winner (Rip Van Winkle): 64 (0-0-2)

Sussex Stakes winner (Canford Cliffs): 2263121 (2-3-6)

Jersey Stakes winner (Rainfall): 1 (1-0-1)

St James Palace winner (Canford Cliffs): 2222 (0-4-4)

Irish 2000 Guineas winner (Canford Cliffs): 222 (0-3-3)

2000 Guineas winner (Makfi): 22 (0-2-2)

Prix Jacques Le Marois winner (Makfi): 424 (0-1-3)

Strensall Stakes winner (Rio De La Plata): 6 (0-0-1)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Celebration Mile last time, finishing 2431- Won By Poets Voice very readily on soft ground - 2nd race of the season - 3 yr old   

4 of 10 winners ran in the Eclipse, finishing 1862

3 of 10 winners ran in the Sussex Stakes, finishing 121

3 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 144 (Makfi  a genuine soft ground animal won it on g/frm! and turned over Goldikova, Paco Boy and Fuisse subsequently french trained won it - Red Jazz 8th and Heart of Fire 13th also ran 

3 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in the Dewhurst as a 2yo, finishing 437 Beethoven - Sprang 33-1 surprise in tight finish to substandard renewal of the Dewhurst last year under Ryan Moore; repeated that level of form this year under trainer´s son, getting much closer to a below-par Rip Van Winkle in the Irish Champion than when fourth inthe Sussex Stakes

7 of 10 winners ran at Royal Ascot (2 St James Palace, 2 Queen Anne, 2 Prince Of Wales, 1 Jersey)

Trainers

Aidan O’Brien (2-5-18) has won 2 of the last 4 runnings. has the probable 2nd  Fav RipVanWinkle WHO IS 4 ! never run on ground this soft - drawn alongside Poets Voice

Saeed Bin Suroor (2-4-16) has won 3 of the last 10 runnings and almost half his runners have made the frame. RUNS  Poets Voice under Dettori (who is riding at 8-13)- genuine soft ground animal recorded its best speed ever last time at Goodwood in the soft - could be very well drawn in the 2 box.   

French-trained runners (0-0-7) have failed to fill a place from 7 runners in this. - prob Favvy tomorrow is Makfi  a real soft ground horse with pedigree to match 

Price

8 of 10 winners (including last 8) came from the first 3 in the betting

There have been a couple of shocks in the past 10 years, including a 33/1 and a 14/1 winner but the last 8 were all priced 7/1 or below.

Favourites (3-6-10) have won 3 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 3.26.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 3 or 5

·         Finished in the first 2 last time out

·         Won a group 1

·         Won over a mile

·         Finished in first 4 in Celebration Mile, Eclipse and/or Sussex Stakes

·         From first 3 in the betting

·         Trained by Bin Suroor or O’Brien

 overnight - the stats for Poets Voice are very strong and I think  the current 8/1 will go as the market forms and am on -- this morning only half my bet taken at 9s and the price is in to 8.2 betfair
Saturday Morning Round up- 
am never confident about the going reports from Ascot  and am inclined to think the ground will remain soft enough for Poets Voice and make this my main contender
 -
 The only stat that Makfi does not tick is the French trainer record in the race - apart from that the trends (and profile) -Solid and will win or be thereabouts 
The big outsider for me has to be Beethoven - blinkered and under Moore cannot believe he is not here on Merit this ground and booking - won the Dewhurst well under him and this colt is from a very good family that improves and improves with age - first time it has had its ground this season. Saw out the 1m2f behind Cape Blanco well last run and with this ground the mile looks well within his place capabilities for me  was only 2l behind RipVanwinkle and Canford cliffs on ground far too fast at Goodwood and ran on his own merit that day - is one that is being ignored in the market at current 22/1 back in the visor from blinkers

 hope you carry on the analysis and we reach a consensus on this one guys 

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The fillies Mile  3.05  currently 6 runners 

The Meon Valley Stud Fillies Mile takes place at Ascot this Saturday 25th September as part of the supporting card to the QEII. A group 1 run over a mile for 2yo fillies, it gives the winner automatic qualification to the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age 

Race for 2yos

Recent Form

10 of 10 winners made their racecourse debut in June, July or August (only Traffic sister started later (October)

10 of 10 winners ran in the last 50 days (all have)

9 of 10 winners (last 9) posted their highest RPR last time out (all did)

9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times (only Together has run more - 5)

8 of 10 winners had never finished outside the first 3 (ONLY WHITE MOONSTONE ticks this box)

8 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F (exceptions: 2nd in Group 1 over 7F and 2nd in group 2 over a mile)

8 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions were 2nd in a group race)

7 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race (2 exceptions had yet not run in pattern company and other was 2nd in group 2)

5 of 10 winners won their maiden over 6F or 7F at Newmarket (one other won a listed race over 7F at Newmarket)

Other Races

May Hill Stakes winner (White Moonstone): 481311 (3-0-6)

Sweet Solera Stakes winner (White Moonstone): 123318 (2-2-6)

Prestige Stakes winner (Theyskens´ Theory): 181624 (2-1-6)

Moyglare Stud Stakes winner (Misty For Me): 3 (0-0-1)

4 of 10 winners ran in the May Hill, finishing 1112

2 of 10 winners ran in the Sweet Solera, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in the Moyglare Stud, finishing 72

2 of 10 winners ran in the Prestige Stakes, finishing 11

Trainers

Aidan O’Brien (1-3-8) is the only trainer with an entrant this year to have won the race in the past decade (2007).

Mick Channon (0-2-4) has seen two of his four runners make the frame in this in the past 10 years, while Stan Moore (0-1-2) saddled the 4th in 2006 and the runner-up last year.

Price

10 of 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter

Favourites (3-3-10) have won 3 of the last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 4.53

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Made debut in June, July or August

·         Won last time out, posting highest RPR (no worse than 2nd)

·         Won over 7F or 1M

·         Won a listed or group race

·         Ran in last 50 days

·         Run at least twice this season

·         Won the May Hills, Sweet Solera or Prestige Stakes

·         Priced 8/1 or shorter

From the Hannon Yard -

The boss said Julie (Wood) is keen to run Date With Destiny in the G1 Fillies Mile  So we head there rather than waiting for the Sales race at Newmarket next week.  I can see where she is coming from as the race has cut up and the chance of  Some black type for such a high-profile filly is too good to miss, but obviously We know it will be tough as White Moonstone and Theysken's Theory have Looked two high-class youngsters and are proven in Group company.

Round up Saturday morning - cannot see past the favourite White Moonstone to win this race - ticks all the boxes

 Will put up a great place market chance for the hannon animal Date With Destiny

Only offspring of George Washington and got off to a flying start in a decent Newbury maiden; far from discredited behind Theyskens´ Theory at Goodwood (soft) considering she was held up in a race in which it paid to racehandily and did not handle the course; should be suited by 1m and unlikely we have seen the best of her.

 Good luck- hope the trends pay off and if you spot another angle - post it guys post it!