he Totesport.com Cambridgeshire takes place at Newmarket on Saturday 2nd October and as always will be a wide open affair with around 30 runners going to post. It makes up the first part of the Autumn Double with the Cesarewitch to follow 2 weeks later.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
W | P | R | |
3yo | 2 | 14 | 73 |
4yo | 5 | 7 | 132 |
5yo | 0 | 5 | 49 |
6yo+ | 3 | 4 | 69 |
Horses aged 3 or 4 have a combined record of 7-21-205
Horses aged 5+ have a combined record of 3-9-118
Younger horses have held the call in recent years with 3 and 4 year olds winning 6 of the last 8 runnings.
Weights
Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 0-1-23
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 4-9-69
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 4-13-123
Horses carrying 8-0 to 8-6: 2-5-83
Horses carrying 7-7 to 7-13: 0-2-21
Record of top weight: 0-1-12
Record of horses carrying a penalty: 0-6-43
In the past 5 years:
Horses carrying 8-9 or more: 5-10-111
Horses carrying 8-8 or less: 0-6-46
The last 5 winners have carried between 8-9 and 9-3
Official Ratings
Horses rated 102 to 111: 2-8-63
Horses rated 90 to 101: 6-19-193
Horses rated 80 to 89: 2-3-67
The last 5 winners have been officially rated 97 to 102
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had won a race worth 9K or more
9 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 handicap last time out
8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR of past 12 months last time
8 of 10 winners (last 8) had won over 1M 2F
7 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher (2 of 3 exceptions finished 2nd in class 2 or higher
7 of 10 winners had run in fewer than 10 handicaps
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time out
Other Races
Zetland Gold Cup winner (Forte Dei Marmi): 41 (1-1-2)
sportingbet.com Heritage Handicap winner (Circumvent): 01 (1-0-2)
baden-racing.com Handicap winner (Al Khaleej): 3 (0-1-1)
Betfair App For iPhone Stakes winner (Indian Days): 02 (0-1-2)
Dubai Duty Free Stakes winner (Forte Dei Marmi): 00360 (0-1-5)
Britannia Stakes winner (Ransom Note): 0 (0-0-1)
Ayrshire Handicap winner (Tiger Reigns): 07 (0-0-2)
Shergar Cup Mile winner (Set The Trend): 000 (0-0-3)
Goddard Stakes winner (Ransom Note): 00055 (0-0-5)
4 of 10 winners ran in Dubai Duty Free Stakes last time, finishing 9230
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in the Sunderlands Handicap, finishing 45
Trainers
John Gosden (2-0-5) has won 2 of the last 3 runnings of the race.
Hughie Morrison (1-1-3) and David Elsworth (1-1-8) have both saddled the winner and a placed finisher in the past decade.
Other trainers who have won the race since 2000 are Gerard Butler (1-0-2), Alan Swinbank (1-0-2), Roger Charlton (1-0-5) and Mark Prescott (1-0-8).
Jeremy Noseda (0-3-7), Pat Chamings (0-2-2), Jim Goldie (0-2-3) and Mark Johnston (0-2-9) have all saddled multiple placed finishers in the past 10 years.
Draw
Horses drawn 1-10: 1-12-100
Horses drawn 11-20: 4-9-100
Horses drawn 21+: 5-11-123
Low drawn horses have fared by far the worst with 9 of the 10 winners coming from stall 11 or higher.
Price
7 of 10 winners were priced 16/1 or below
No strong trends on the prices. There have been a few big upsets with a 33/1 winner in 2001 and a 100/1 winner in 2004.
Favourites (2-3-14) have a fair record in this race having won 2 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes profit of 2.00.
Racing Style
7 of 10 winners were held up off the pace
(However the last 2 winners both race prominently, with last year’s winner, Supaseus, making all to win the race.)
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 3 or 4
· Carrying 8-9+
· Officially rated 97 to 102
· Finished in the first 4 in a class 2 handicap last time
· Posted their highest RPR of past 12 months last time
· Has won at class 2 level or above (preferably race worth 9K+)
· Won over 1M 2F
· Run in 9 or fewer handicaps
· Ran in the Dubai Duty Free Stakes or Sunderlands Handicap
· Trained by John Gosden, Hughie Morrison or Jeremy Noseda
· Drawn 11 or higher
GOOD LUCK THIS RACE GUYS HOPE THE TRENDS HELP YOU SORT OUT THE WINNER
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Result - This historic high-class handicap is often won by a battle-hardened handicapper but has on several occasions fallen to a progressive 3-y-o. This year there were several in the latter category in evidence but it went to one of the former group. The pace looked good as three of the first four came from well back.
CREDIT SWAP --- 5 yr - had gained all his wins on soft and had appeared unlucky twice in the preceding week, being beaten narrowly here just two days previously. Again ridden with restraint, he got plenty of room towards the far rail and, hitting the front inside the last furlong, won well. Connections are likely to look for another opportunity while the ground is in his favour.
Steele Tango, a Group 3 winner over C&D last October, has alsoput up numerous good efforts in Listed and Group company. Although 8lb higher than for his last run in a handicap, he still looked fairly treated and ran a fine race, especially as he raced more towards the centre of the track than the winner. He is likely to be back here later in the month to attempt a repeat success in the Darley Stakes.
Pires, who mixes Flat racing and hurdling, has not won on the Flat since 2006 but came into this in good form and, after being last of all around 3f out, finished well up the centre of the track. A return to further will be in his favour.
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Result - This historic high-class handicap is often won by a battle-hardened handicapper but has on several occasions fallen to a progressive 3-y-o. This year there were several in the latter category in evidence but it went to one of the former group. The pace looked good as three of the first four came from well back.
CREDIT SWAP --- 5 yr - had gained all his wins on soft and had appeared unlucky twice in the preceding week, being beaten narrowly here just two days previously. Again ridden with restraint, he got plenty of room towards the far rail and, hitting the front inside the last furlong, won well. Connections are likely to look for another opportunity while the ground is in his favour.
Steele Tango, a Group 3 winner over C&D last October, has alsoput up numerous good efforts in Listed and Group company. Although 8lb higher than for his last run in a handicap, he still looked fairly treated and ran a fine race, especially as he raced more towards the centre of the track than the winner. He is likely to be back here later in the month to attempt a repeat success in the Darley Stakes.
Pires, who mixes Flat racing and hurdling, has not won on the Flat since 2006 but came into this in good form and, after being last of all around 3f out, finished well up the centre of the track. A return to further will be in his favour.
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