With the Ayr Gold Cup fast approaching most punters will be turning their attention to the Bronze Cup (today) and the Silver Cup (tomorrow) to see if any strong draw bias exists.
Ben Has put up some though provoking stats on the Bronze and Sliver Cup races at Ayr today that you should really look long and hard at his work at
http://www.narrowing-the-field.com/2010/09/think-twice-before-following-bronze-box.html
Have mentioned the need to look at these races with a view to getting a bias for the big race - Ben explains why he has reservations with this approach and stats to verify his contention
On today's field - historically (and no other factor enters this )
6flngs4.30 Bronze Cup today 27 runners have the following bias for the boxes :-
box 22 (+3) boxes 23/21/13/25/27/24/14/26/5(+2) 11/12/6/20/4/3/2(+1) 1/10/7/15/8/9/16(0) 17/18/19(-1) Bronze Cup -- Like the chances of Chevington on the high drawn side - looks a real 6flngs animal that tends to be slow away and in running animal for me - last year the first side home was low drawn good ground on that side Ancient Cross dropped down to 6flngs dutching these two
5 flngs (3.20) boxes - 3/11/12/16(+2) 2/4/13/14/15/17 (+1) 1/7/10/6/5(0) box 9 (-1)
Good Luck today
Bobt
4 comments:
Your draw figures indicate a bias towards high numbers Bob. I have already put one up for this, and now I'd like to put another up Each Way Cheveton. Drawn very high, this has won off a 6lb higher mark, is in form and cies out for this 6 furlong trip. It would seem that Price has deliberately run this over the minimum trip, where it's always slow out of the stalls and runs on.
My Selection for this race martin is also Cheveton - thought he did really well last time and though others thought he would not have won despite that interference I actually think that is no account - am even thinking the naps table for it
YES!!! Didn't we do well Bob!!!!
yep we did -- and look at the naps table - I did go for it -- looking at your selection and nap in the next - g/l mate
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