provisional Stats on the Big race Friday Middle Park

The Shadwell Middle Park Stakes is one of two group 1’s taking place at Newmarket on Friday 1st October. There are 12 runners left in at the 5-day stage and some of the most promising 2yo prospects including Strong Suit, Dream Ahead and Temple Meads could make this a cracking renewal.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age

Race for 2yos

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had run at least twice

9 of 10 winners won last time out (exception was 3rd in a group 1)

8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out

10 of 10 winners had won over 6F

8 of 10 winners had won a group race (2 exceptions had not previously run in a group race)

Other races

Prix Morny winner (Dream Ahead): 413411 (3-1-6)

Norfolk Stakes winner (Approve): 112 (2-1-3)

Mill Reef Stakes winner (Temple Meads): 511 (2-0-3)

Coventry Stakes winner (Strong Suit): 1324 (1-2-4)

Gimcrack Stakes winner (Approve): 9421683 (1-1-7)

Prix Robert Papin winner (Irish Field): 2 (0-1-1)

4 of 4 Irish-trained winners ran in the Phoenix Stakes, finishing 1133

3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Morny last time, finishing 111

2 of 10 winners ran in the Coventry Stakes, finishing 31

2 of 10 winners ran in the Anglesey Stakes, finishing 11

Trainers

Aidan O’Brien (3-1-17) has won the race 3 times in the past decade though has not saddled a runner in the race in the past 2 years. His first strings have a record of 3-1-8.

Peter Chapple-Hyam (1-1-3) has saddled the winner and a runner-up in the past 4 years while Jeremy Noseda (0-2-3) has saddled 2 runners-up in this since 2000 (one of which was subsequently given the race when a banned substance was found in the winner’s sample).

Price

9 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting

The last 10 winners have all come from the first 5 in the betting and none have been bigger than 8/1.

Favourites (5-2-10) have won 5 of the last 10 but only show a level stakes profit of 1.21.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Won last time out, posting career high RPR

·         Won over 6F

·         Won a group race

·         Won the Prix Morny, Norfolk or Mill Reef Stakes

·         Trained by O’Brien, Chapple-Hyam or Noseda

·         First three in the betting