Tattersalls Million Irish Champion Stakes September 4th

The Tattersalls Million Irish Champion Stakes takes place at Leopardstown on Saturday 4th September and it is one of the best flat races run in Europe each year. There have been some superb duels down the years such as St Jovite and Dr Devious, Fantastic Light and Galileo and Dylan Thomas and Ouija Board. Last year Sea The Stars put in one of his best performances to win the race and the horse he beat into 2nd (Fame And Glory) is looking to go one better this time around.
 as ever solid pointers in Blue type  --  Red type negatives and -- Purple -  place chances


 Good to firm going but already had showers and now at 11am a really hard downpour - the good to firm could go quickly at Leopardstown and more rain forecast - keep checking the course correspondent on racing post site 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

	W	P	R
3yo	6	6	32
4yo	3	5	26
5yo	1	3	12
6yo+	0	0	4

3yos (6-6-32) have a superior record to the older horses (combined 4-8-42) and 3yos have won 5 of the last 6 renewals

Gender

Fillies and mares (0-2-11) have a poor record in the race, gaining just 2 places from 11 runners in the past decade. today - Lady of the desert (3 yr old filly) Rainfall (3 yr old filly) Serious Attitude(3 yr old filly)

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times that season

10 of 10 winners had won 1 of their last 2 starts

9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F or 1M 4F (exception was having first run over further than a mile)

10 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (8 of 10 had won more than one)

5 of 10 winners had previously run at Leopardstown and all 5 wereunbeaten at the track

5 of 6 winners aged 3 had won a group 1 or 2 as a 2yo

Other Races

Eclipse Stakes winner (Twice Over): 12211 (3-2-5)

Judmonte International winner (Rip Van Winkle): 121 (2-1-3)

Irish Derby winner (Cape Blanco): 24412 (1-2-5)

Previous season's Futurity Stakes winner (Cape Blanco): 1211 (3-1-4)

Previous season's Tyros Stakes winner (Cape Blanco): 1 (1-0-1)

5 of 10 winners (last 4) ran in the Judmonte International last time, finishing 14231 (Rip Van Winkle and Twice Over)

4 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 3421 (Rip Van Winkle)

4 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in the Irish 2000 Guineas finishing 2222 (Cape Blanco)

3 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in the Eclipse, finishing 111 (Twice Over)

3 of 6 winners aged 3 had won the Futurity as a 2yo (Cape Blanco)

2 of 6 winners aged 3 had won the Beresford as a 2yo

2 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in the Dewhurst, finishing 21(Beethoven)

3 of 4 winners aged 4+ ran in the Prince Of Wales Stakes, finishing 112

3 of 4 winners aged 4+ ran in the King George, finishing 251

2 of 4 winners aged 4+ ran in the Tattersalls Gold Cup, finishing 12

2 of 4 winners aged 4+ ran in the Breeder’s Cup Turf, finishing 51

Trainers

Aidan O’Brien (5-6-26) has a super record in this race having won 5 of the last 10 runnings. If you just count his first strings his record improves to 5-4-10.

British-trained runners (2-6-24) have won 2 of the last 10, both those winner were trained by Saeed Bin Suroor (2-0-8).

Price

10 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting

The longest priced winner in the past 10 years has been 8/1, not a race for big turn-ups.

Favourites (5-2-10) have won 5 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 0.83.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: 

·         Aged 3

·         Run 3+ times this season & won 1 of last 2 starts

·         Won over 1M 2F or 1M 4F

·         Won a group 1 (won more than 1 if aged 4+)

·         Unbeaten at Leopardstown

·         Won the Eclipse, Futurity and/or Judmonte International

·         Ran in the Judmonte International last time out

·         Trained by Aidan O’Brien

·         From first 4 in the betting




well this looks a laydown for the trends so what else can catch the eye?


 MY Bet is Cape Blanco for the win - has age on its side and will love the distance beat home Workforce in the dante 1m2f g/frm and has all the stats above - plus i cannot resist Heffernen getting the ride as one of the most underated in the Obrien yard - pacemaker for Rip ? well he has to go from the front anyway so why not 


 Fallon as usual has to be respected on the outsider Sea Lord - its run at Goodwood produced a decnt time over 1m in the Totesport Mile heritage Handicap  a figure of 93 and four wins on the bounce -  not the first time a johnston horse has gone to Ireland and he has one winner from 11 runners at this track (Pams system of picking winner trainers comes into fore"! in fact with his low ratio runners to wins makes him top trainer and Fallon has given up some good rides in Uk to come here --- he definitely looks better than a handicapper and though the classy animals look so good i have to say its front running tactics could pay off for decent bet at long odds in the place market and will back this 80/20 place win


 good luck 


 Bobt