Dosage figures and what that means!

  First an explanation of what the term means - don't get bored half way through!!!
The Dosage Index is a mathematical figure used by breeders of Thoroughbred race horses, and sometimes by bettors handicapping horse races, to quantify a horse's ability, or inability, to negotiate the various distances at which horse races are run. It is calculated based on an analysis of the horse's pedigree.

Interest in determining which sires of race horses transmit raw speed, and which sires transmit stamina (defined as the ability to successfully compete at longer distances) to their progeny dates back to the early 20th Century, when a French researcher, Lt. Col. J. J. Vullier, published a study on the subject (called Dosage), which was subsequently modified by anItalian breeding expert, Dr. Franco Varola, in two books he authored, entitled Typology Of The Race Horse and The Functional Development Of The Thoroughbred.

However, these observations attracted little interest from the general public until 1981, when Daily Racing Form breeding columnist Leon Rasmussen published a new version of Dosage developed by an American scientist and horse owner, Steven A. Roman, Ph.D., in his analysis of the upcoming Kentucky Derby for that year. The new approach, which was more accessible to owners, breeders and handicappers and was supported by solid statistical data, rapidly caught on, and the term "Dosage Index" has been a fixture in the lexicon of horse racing ever since. The details of Dosage methodology have been summarized in Dr. Roman's book entitled Dosage: Pedigree & Performance published in 2002.

The index itself is compiled by noting the presence of certain influential sires, known as chefs-de-race (French for "chiefs of racing," or, more esoterically, "masters of the breed") in the first four generations of a horse's pedigree. Based on what distances the progeny of the sires so designated excelled in during their racing careers (the distance preferences displayed by the sires themselves while racing being irrelevant), each chef-de-race (the list released in the early 1980s identified 120 such sires, and 85 more have been added as of April 2005) is placed in one or two of the following categories, or "aptitudinal groups": Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid or Professional, with "Brilliant" indicating that the sire's progeny fared best at very short distances and "Professional" denoting a propensity for very long races on the part of the sire's offspring, the other three categories ranking along the same continuum in the aforementioned order. If a chef-de-race is placed in two different aptitudinal groups, in no case can the two groups be more than two positions apart; for example, Classic-Solid or Brilliant-Classic are permissible, but Brilliant-Solid, Intermediate-Professional and Brilliant-Professional are not.

If a horse's sire is on the chef-de-race list, it counts 16 points for the group to which the sire belongs (or eight in each of two categories if the sire was placed in two groups); a grandsire counts eight points, a great-grandsire four, and a great-great-grandsire two (female progenitors do not count directly, but if any of their sires etc. are on the chef-de-race list points would accrue via such sires).

This results in a Dosage Profile consisting of five separate figures, listed in order of Brilliant-Intermediate-Classic-Solid-Professional. Secretariat, the 1973 Triple Crown winner, for example, had a Dosage Profile of 20-14-7-9-0. To arrive at the Dosage Index, the first two figures plus one-half the value of the third figure are added together, and then divided by one-half of the third figure plus the sum of the last two figures. In this case, it would be 37.5 (20 + 14+ 3.5) divided by 12.5 (3.5 + 9 + 0), giving Secretariat a Dosage Index of exactly 3.00 (the figure almost always being expressed with two places to the right of the decimal point and rounded to the nearest .01).

 sounds complicated and of course it is - there are a few publications that have all the stats you require to calculate them but they are just too complicated for us the average punter -- 

High Dosage Index (and Center of Distribution) figures are associated with a tendency to perform best over shorter distances, while low numbers signify an inherent preference for longer races

 there are even a few sites http://www.bettingmarket.com/dosage.htm where they will freely give you them,  for example this site has published for the St ledger

Horse	Dosage Profile	Dosage Index	Centre distribution
REWILDING	14	1.33	0.21
DANDINO	12	1.40	0.25
MIDAS TOUCH	22	0.69	-0.14
JOSHUA TREE	30	0.94	0.07
ARCTIC COSMOS	18	1.77	0.50
SNOW FAIRY	14	1.33	0.21
TED SPREAD	22	0.91	0.14
TOTAL COMMAND	42	1.05	0.21

The best dosage figure for Distance animals are those with a the lowest Positive  result of the dosage calculation of the  Centre of Distribution  ( the lower that Number the better the breeding  for all grass racing ground conditions for stamina at 1m4f + pedigree  

 Joshua Tree    Ted Spread  Rewilding    Total Command (though the high dosage index for This animal indicates a greater speed horse for distances below 1m4f )

 So if they all run thats the way the dosage index says they will finish in that order!!! 


Joshua Tree - out of Montjeu is currently 8/1 shot


Ted Spread is an outsider at 16/1 on Tuesday has been subject of a bit of a gamble 16/1 to 12/1 this morning


Rewilding - price has steadily dropped as many cannot see past this animal and 6/4 looks solid now
Total Command - has been largely ignored by the ante post brigade




 Total Command  has maintained the 33/1 place in the market