The Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes, which takes place at Doncaster on Saturday 11th September, is the final Classic of the season. In recent years the two races that have supplied the majority of the winners have been the Great Voltigeur and the Gordon Stakes, 9 of the last 10 winners ran in one or the other.
First run in 1776, the St Leger at Doncaster is the oldest Classic, the longest at 1m6f and the final leg of British Racing's Triple Crown - last claimed in 1970 by Nijinsky. The great race is now the Saturday centrepiece of a high-class, four-day festival that's one of the highlights of the Flat racing season.
Going spots of rain but still good ground
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age
Race for 3yos.
Genders
Fillies (0-3-7) have gained 3 places from 7 runners (2 of the 3 were group 1 winners and the other was an unbeaten group winner)
Snow Fairy is the only female entrant this season, she has won both the Epsom and Irish Oaks. The last 2 dual-Oaks winners to run in the Leger were User Friendly (1st 1992) and Ramruma (2nd 1999) there could be good place money in this stat alone
Breeding
8 of 10 winners were by a sire with a stamina index of 10.9F to 11.6F
this brings in the dosage index horses - separate blog for details but in order of best index
Joshua Tree Ted Spread Rewilding Total Command (though the high dosage index for This animal indicates a greater speed horse for distances below 1m4f )
this brings in the dosage index horses - separate blog for details but in order of best index
Joshua Tree Ted Spread Rewilding Total Command (though the high dosage index for This animal indicates a greater speed horse for distances below 1m4f )
5 of 10 winners were by Sadler’s Wells or by a son of Sadler’s Wells or out of a Sadler’s Wells mare
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 4) were out of a mare by Diesis
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won last time out - Only Rewilding satisfy s this stat.
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out this excludes TED SPREAD -TOTAL COMMAND -THEOLOGY -CORSICA
10 of 10 winners ran in the past 60 days -- all qualify
10 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR on 1 of last 2 starts (8 last time out)
10 of 10 winners won their maiden over 7F+
8 of 10 winners had won over 1M 3F to 1M 4F (both exceptions placed in the Voltigeur)
9 of 10 winner had won a group race (exception twice 2nd in group 2's)
9 of 10 winners had run 4 or 5 times that season
Other Races
Great Voltigeur winner (Rewilding): 2131513 (3-3-7)
Chester Vase winner (Ted Spread): 1368 (1-1-4)
Bahrain Trophy winner (Corsica): 2 (0-1-1)
Epsom Oaks winner (Snow Fairy): 3 (0-1-1)
6 of 10 winners ran in Great Voltigeur last time, finishing 132112
3 of 10 winners ran in Gordon Stakes last time, finishing 111
5 of 10 winners ran in King Edward VII, finishing 42322
4 of 10 winners ran in the Derby, finishing 0274
3 of 10 winners ran in Irish Derby, finishing 442
3 of 10 winners ran in French Derby, finishing 850
2 of 10 winners ran in Grand Prix de Paris, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in the Dante, finishing 22
Draw Advantage (ground dependent) funny to give a draw advt this distance but trends suggest that drawn 123 boxes are a small advnt. The are held by Theology - Joshua tree and Ted Spread.
Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (3-3-25) has won 3 of the last 10 renewals but saddled a whopping 25 runners (over a quarter of the total runners).
Saeed Bin Suroor (2-1-5) saddled the first two in 2009 and his 8 runners in the past 12 years have produced 4 winners and 2 places.
Michael Stoute (1-3-13), John Gosden (1-0-2) and Jeremy Noseda (1-0-2) have all saddled the winner once in the past decade.
Price
7 of 10 winners came from first 2 in the betting
Last year’s winner Mastery was the first winner priced above 8/1 in past 15 years.
Favourites (6-4-11) have won 6 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 4.91.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Sired by a horse with stamina index of 10.9F to 11.6F
· Related to Sadler’s Wells or Diesis
· Finished in first 3 last time out (ideally won)
· Posted a career high RPR in last 2 outings
· Ran in past 60 days
· Run 4 or 5 times this season
· Won a group race over 1M 3F to 1M 4F
· Finished in first 3 in Great Voltigeur or Gordon Stakes last time
· Finished in first 4 in King Edward VII Stakes
· Trained by Aidan O’Brien or Saeed Bin Suroor
· From first two in the betting
Cannot see past Rewilding for the form and Trends bet have taken it
at 13/8 and still 5/4 betfair - has all the blues in the VFb
Ted Spread 16/1 on Tuesday has been subject of a bit of a gamble 16/1 to 12/1 by Thursday
Joker in the pack Total Command has maintained the 33/1 place in the market - should be recognised as a place horse well-bred stepped up on the form he showed at Newbury he´s a brother to St Leger runner-up Quiff. Not as classy as some of his relatives, he needs this 1m6ffand apparently easier ground is expected to suit him better as well. has not got it at the mo but any rain and will fancy it placed
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Cannot see past Rewilding for the form and Trends bet have taken it
at 13/8 and still 5/4 betfair - has all the blues in the VFb
Joshua Tree - out of Montjeu is currently 8/1 shot has the plum draw and Obrien has booked spencer despite their past differences am on each way
Am in two Minds how good the filly Snow Fairy is - trends are solid
won the oaks and the curragh oaks what a turrn of speed fantastic animal 170710
2nd yorkshire oaks 190810 - The quickening ground was thought to be ideal for Snow Fairy, who had not been totally at home in yielding conditions at the Curragh despitebolting up there by eight lengths. With Richard Hughes replacing the injured Ryan Moore, she travelled as strongly as the winner into the straight, but after following the older filly through she had no answer to her turn of foot.
Joker in the pack Total Command has maintained the 33/1 place in the market - should be recognised as a place horse well-bred stepped up on the form he showed at Newbury he´s a brother to St Leger runner-up Quiff. Not as classy as some of his relatives, he needs this 1m6ffand apparently easier ground is expected to suit him better as well. has not got it at the mo but any rain and will fancy it placed
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Post race comments
A stronger-looking field than last season assembled for the final classic of the year all though thats prob not saying much the form of the key trials was well represented, with the first four from the Great Voltigeur, as well as the placed runners from the Gordon Stakes, all making the line-up. In fact Snow Fairy was the only runner not to have been prepped for this in either of those races.king field than last season assembled for the year´s final Classic, although that´s probably not saying much. The form
The race revolved around the extremely well-backed Rewilding (shortest-price favourite since Scorpion in 2005), who had looked a world-beater in winning the Voltigeur, but there was good reason for thinking he may struggle to repeat that form, and it was clear from the turn in that he wasn´t going to be winning.
There was no place to hide thanks to Corsica, who set a searching gallop, but little got into it from the rear, and the first two home sat alongside each other in the perfect position for much of the race. As a result the winning time was 2.68secs quicker than standard.
John Gosden has had his string in cracking form in recent weeks, and the application of first-time blinkers to ARCTIC COSMOSproved a masterstroke, as he found the necessary improvement to provide the handler with win number three in the race, following the successes of Shantou in 1996 and Lucarno in 2007.
Beaten off a mark of 78 at Newbury back in May, his improvement since has been remarkable, easily defying that mark next time and then finishing second just over a week later in the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot. His Gordon Stakes third was all the more credible considering he didn´t handle the track, and there was little doubt about him seeing out this longer trip, so it looked ominous for the opposition when Buick was sat in behind the leaders waiting to pounce as they raced past the three-furlong marker. Asked to go on and win the race inside the final two furlongs, he immediately picked up to take the lead and then stayed on strongly for pressure to maintain a comfy advantage all the way to the line.
Out of North light and obviously Danehill stock blink first time Gosden in tremendous form at the moment ---this animal came right out of left field the trend were completely blown away and must be remembered for nxt year
A stronger-looking field than last season assembled for the final classic of the year all though thats prob not saying much the form of the key trials was well represented, with the first four from the Great Voltigeur, as well as the placed runners from the Gordon Stakes, all making the line-up. In fact Snow Fairy was the only runner not to have been prepped for this in either of those races.king field than last season assembled for the year´s final Classic, although that´s probably not saying much. The form
The race revolved around the extremely well-backed Rewilding (shortest-price favourite since Scorpion in 2005), who had looked a world-beater in winning the Voltigeur, but there was good reason for thinking he may struggle to repeat that form, and it was clear from the turn in that he wasn´t going to be winning.
There was no place to hide thanks to Corsica, who set a searching gallop, but little got into it from the rear, and the first two home sat alongside each other in the perfect position for much of the race. As a result the winning time was 2.68secs quicker than standard.
John Gosden has had his string in cracking form in recent weeks, and the application of first-time blinkers to ARCTIC COSMOSproved a masterstroke, as he found the necessary improvement to provide the handler with win number three in the race, following the successes of Shantou in 1996 and Lucarno in 2007.
Beaten off a mark of 78 at Newbury back in May, his improvement since has been remarkable, easily defying that mark next time and then finishing second just over a week later in the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot. His Gordon Stakes third was all the more credible considering he didn´t handle the track, and there was little doubt about him seeing out this longer trip, so it looked ominous for the opposition when Buick was sat in behind the leaders waiting to pounce as they raced past the three-furlong marker. Asked to go on and win the race inside the final two furlongs, he immediately picked up to take the lead and then stayed on strongly for pressure to maintain a comfy advantage all the way to the line.
Out of North light and obviously Danehill stock blink first time Gosden in tremendous form at the moment ---this animal came right out of left field the trend were completely blown away and must be remembered for nxt year
BOb T
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