the irish St leger saturday the Currugh 3.45

he Irish Field St Leger takes place at the Curragh this Saturday, 11th September. Unlike the other four Irish Classics this race is open to older horses and since 1990 only one horse aged 3 has won the race, that was the great Vinnie Roe, who went on to win the race 3 more times.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

	W	P	R
3yo	1	3	16
4yo	2	8	36
5yo	3	3	15
6yo+	4	5	19

Horses aged 3 or 4 have combined record: 3-11-52

Horses aged 5+ have combined record: 7-8-34

Clearly this is a race to focus on older horses, seeing that those aged 5 or above have won 7 of the last 10 runnings from just under 40% of the total runners.

Gender

Fillies/mares (1-1-9) have gained 1 win and 1 place from 9 runners, which is about right considering they represented approximately 10.5% of the total runners.

Breeding

8 of 10 winners sired by a horse with a stamina index of 10.6F to 11.3F (1 of 2 exceptions was out of a mare who had won a group 3 over 1M 5F)

The last 3 winners were by Sadler’s Wells or a son of Sadler’s Wells

The last 2 winners were out of a Darshaan mare

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions were 2nd on last start)

8 of 10 winners had previously won at the Curragh (2 exceptions were having their first run here)

10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 6F or further

8 of 10 winners had won a group race (both exceptions were dual-listed winners who'd finished in first 3 in a group race)

6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 in a group 1 (2 of 4 exceptions were having first run in a group 1, other 2 had finished 4th & 6th in a group 1)

Other Races

Ballyroan Stakes winner (Profound Beauty): 5111344 (3-1-7)

Vintage Crop Stakes winner (Roses For The Lady): 111 (3-0-3)

Saval Beg winner (Profound Beauty): 8131 (2-1-4)

Ballycullen Stakes winner (Rajik): 71251 (2-1-5)

Curragh Cup winner (Tactic): 66114 (2-0-5)

Ascot Gold Cup winner (Rite Of Passage): 218 (1-1-3)

Challenge Stakes winner (Profound Beauty): 1764 (1-0-4)

Lonsdale Cup winner (Opinion Poll): 443 (0-1-3)

Princess Of Wales' Stakes winner (Sans Frontieres): 555 (0-0-3)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Ballyroan Stakes last time, finishing 1121

2 of 10 winners ran in the Ballycullen Stakes last time, finishing 11

4 of 10 winners ran in the Saval Beg, finishing 1212

3 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Gold Cup, finishing 721

3 of 10 winners ran in the Curragh Cup, finishing 112

3 of 10 winners ran in the Vintage Crop Stakes, finishing 111

2 of 10 winners ran in the Challenge Stakes, finishing 15

3 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's Prix Royal Oak, finishing 614

2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Lonsdale Cup, finishing 12

2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Melbourne Cup, finishing 47

Trainers

Irish-trained runners: 8-9-53

British-trained runners: 2-10-33

All 4 of Dermot Weld’s (4-1-8) wins came from Vinnie Roe winning this race 4 times in a row between 2001 and 2004.

Aidan O’Brien (2-5-16) and John Oxx (2-1-8) have each won 2 of the last 4 renewals of this race.

Saeed Bin Suroor (0-3-3) has seen all 3 of his runners in the race in the past 10 years make the frame.

Price

9 of 10 winners came from first 3 in the betting

The highest priced winner in the last 10 years has been 10/1, not a race to be looking for a big outsider.

Favourites (4-5-12) have won 4 of the last 10 but have shown a level stakes loss of 3.28.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 5 or older

·         Sired by a horse with a stamina index of 10.6F to 11.3F

·         Won last time out (no worse than 2nd)

·         Course winner

·         Won over 1M 6F or further

·         Won a group race

·         Finished in first 2 in the Ballyroan or Ballycullen Stakes last time

·         Winner of the Saval Beg, Vintage Crop and/or Curragh Cup

·         Trained by O’Brien, Oxx, Weld or Bin Suroor

·         First 3 in the betting


 I cannot look beyond Profound Beauty who holds all the aces - Mare who is out of danehill has won here at the currugh  won the ballycurran and winner over 1m6f 
Come On the girls


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Post Race comments


 One can argue whether this race was spoiled a bit by the soft ground. It wouldn´t have helped the runner-up but SANS FRONTIERES showed his class and picked up best on it. Held up off a pace that was a bit stop-start, he didn´t pick up immediately in the straight and being switched towards the outside seemed to help. He did change gear well over a furlong out and ran on strongly inside the last without his jockey having to really get serious.

He won snugly and would have to be seen as a horse very much on the upgrade, but it is a pertinent question as to how he would cope with the runner-up should they meet on better ground, which they may do at Melbourne in November.

Considering how she ran on heavy ground in this race last year, Profound Beauty ran a blinder. She travelled much better this time on ground that wasn´t quite so testing, travelling strongly to challenge and lead a furlong and a half out but she didn´t quite stride out on it under pressure. It was an ideal trial for Melbourne.

 she is still my darlin- what a race she ran