National stakes saturday the currugh

The Ladbrokes.com Vincent O’Brien National Stakes takes places at the Curragh on Saturday 11th September on the supporting card of Irish St Leger day. It is one of the premier group 1 races for juveniles run in Europe. Winners over the past 15 years include Sinndar, Hawk Wing, George Washington, New Approach and Mastercraftsman.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age

Race for 2yos

Breeding

10 of 10 winners were born in February or March

4 sons of Galileo have run in this, finishing 1912 (2-1-4)

3 of the last 5 winners were by Danehill or a son of Danehill or out of a Danehill mare

Recent Form

9 of 10 winners (last 9) won last time out

10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out

10 of 10 winners won their maiden over 6F or 7F (last 5 at Curragh)

7 of 10 winners had won a group race (2 of 3 exceptions had won their only run in a maiden)

7 of 10 winners had previously won at the Curragh (2 exceptions were having first run here & other was beaten a 1/2L in the Futurity on only previous course start)

6 of 10 winners were unbeaten (other 4 had lost just one race)

Other races

Futurity Stakes winner (Pathfork): 123113 (3-2-6)

Phoenix Stakes winner (Zoffany): 11216 (3-1-5)

Tyros Stakes winner (Zoffany): 2611 (2-1-4)

Marble Hill Stakes winner (Samuel Morse): 3 (0-0-1)

Washington Singer Stakes winner (Janood): 5 (0-0-1)

4 of 10 winner ran in the Futurity Stakes last time, finishing 3111 (Pathfork 1st - Glor Na mara 2nd Samuel Morse 3rd - High Ruler 4th - Rudolf valentino 5th

3 of 10 winners ran in the Phoenix Stakes last time, finishing 111 Zoffanny 1st Glor Na Mara(2nd btn 1/2l) Samuel Morse 5th (well back)

Zoffany was btn by Samuel Morse in the Coventry stakes goodwood from a worse draw! and beat it comprehensively at that  - trends have highlited the brilliance of Heffernen and given us good winners 

Trainers

Irish trained runners: 9-9-62

British-trained runners: 1-4-11

Aidan O’Brien (5-3-30) has won the race 5 times in the last 10 years. If you focus only on his first strings, his record improves to 4-2-10.

Jim Bolger (2-1-7) won the race in 2006 and 2007 with smart juveniles Teofilo and New Approach, both had won the Futurity and Tyros Stakes en route.(His runner today Glan Na Mara came a 1.5 second to Pathfork this year this 7flngs favours the low boxes - but both ran from low draw that day

Dermot Weld (1-1-6) last won the race in 2002.

Price

8 of 10 winners (last 7) came from the first 2 in the betting

The last 10 winners have all come from the first 4 in the betting and none have been bigger than 10/1.

Favourites (5-2-10) have won 5 of the last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 0.75.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Born before 01/04/2008

·         Won last time out posting highest RPR

·         Won a maiden over 6F or 7F

·         Won a group race ( Zanood - Pathfork - Janood)

·         Previously won at the Curragh - Zanood - Pathfork

·         Won the Phoenix or Futurity Stakes last time out -  Pathfork -
·         Trained by Aidan O’Brien, Kevin Prendergast or S Bin Suroor

·         First two in the betting


The trends say that Pathfork is the value bet for the win - ticks all the boxes currently 85/40 betfair

there are still 9 runners at time of post and would not put anyone off taking the top two on in the place market - slow ground brings in Samuel Morse as an animal that is totally over priced and if the rain gets into the ground is a realistic joker in the pack 
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Post Race comments


Pity about my longshot running forth for what would have been a great pickup
the trend were spot on for the win -


A first win at Group 1 level for trainer Jessica Harrington and jockey Fran Berry with PATHFORK retaining his unbeaten record and following up his win in the Group 2 Futurity Stakes over course and trip last month with a game victory on very different ground to last time.

The official description was changed to soft after the first race. In the immediate aftermath of the race Harrington was uncertain whether the winner, who fully justified the decision to supplement him at a cost of Euro 20,000 will run again this season, while Berry reported that the colt "never enjoyed the soft ground at any stage".

Ridden prominently as had been the case on his previous start, Pathfork went to the front just over 2f out and, while the runner-up came back at him in the closing stages, he stuck to his task and held on in a photo-finish. With conditions less than ideal for him, he remains an exacting prospect for next year and a genuine contender for the 2,000 Guineas, for which he is now 10-1 with Ladbrokes and William Hill (from 14 and 12 respectively. He remains 12-1 with Paddy Power for the Newmarket Classic.
Samuel Morse, running in his eighth race, hasn´t won since scoring landing the Listed Marble Hill Stakes over 5f here in May. Beaten four lengths by Pathfork in the Futurity Stakes here last month, he was just over a length and a half further adrift of the winner this time. Driven along soon after halfway, he kept on without ever posing any sort of threatto the winner but only btn !/2 by the fav Zoffany