The Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase takes place on Wednesday 15th September and is the highlight of the 7-day Listowel Festival, which begins on Sunday. It is a 3 mile Grade A handicap chase that can throw up clues for the Aintree Grand National later in the season.
This morning the ground is forecast as Good to yielding - will go with that over this distance
Over night there are 21 runners ( three reserves) with the top weight carried by MossBank aged 10 carrying 11-10
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
W | P | R | |
5yo | 0 | 0 | 1 |
6yo | 1 | 2 | 14 |
7yo | 3 | 6 | 34 |
8yo | 3 | 10 | 49 |
9yo | 3 | 7 | 42 |
10yo+ | 0 | 2 | 26 |
Not a whole lot to choose between the horses aged 6 to 9 who have landed the last 10 runnings.
No horse aged 10 or over has won the race in the last 10 years from 26 runners (15.7% of total runners). Dont take this to heart if you fancy a 10 yr old - last year the placed horses Church Island (33/1) led all the way to run in and Royal County Star 11/1 were both Ten carrying 11-02 and 11-03.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 11-7 or more: 2-2-14
Horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 2-4-23
Horses carrying 10-7 to 10-13: 2-6-40
Horses carrying 10-6 or less: 4-16-89
Horses carrying 11-0+ have a better record, proportional to the number of their runners, 4 wins from 37 runners, which account for only 22.3% of total runners.
Last year Northern Alliance 4/1Fav 8 yr old carrying 11-02 ridden by Mccoy had run in a hdle race previous run - form before winning this race was lamentable
Last year Northern Alliance 4/1Fav 8 yr old carrying 11-02 ridden by Mccoy had run in a hdle race previous run - form before winning this race was lamentable
Top Weight: 36F731F056 (1-2-10) this year Mossbank (10 yrs old)carries top weight has not run for 875 days
Official Ratings
Horses rated 126 or more: 7-13-68
Horses rated 125 or less: 3-15-98
Horses officially rated 126 or higher have won 7 of the last 10 from approximately 41% of the total runners.
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won or placed on last start
7 of 10 winners (last 6) had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
9 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers
8 of 10 winners had gained 2 to 4 previous wins over fences
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run in past 50 days
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 3F or further
7 of 10 winners had won a chase worth 12K+
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had contested a graded chase (Mossbank Northern Alliance Archie Boy Finger On The Pulse Montero Fosters Cross Ponmeoath)
7 of 10 winners had won or placed at a previous Listowel Festival Northen Alliance won (3 exceptions had never run at Listowel before) - Paco Jack was well backed for last years run in this race - really fancied as it had run its previous race like a champ - Rider reported the horse had broken a blood vessel)
5 of 10 winners (last 3) had their previous start over hurdles( this year Golden kite -
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Northern Alliance): 7616 (1-0-4)
Galway Plate winner (Fingeronthepulse): B (0-0-1)
Like A Butterfly Novice Chase winner (Archie Boy): 5 (0-0-1)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Galway Plate, finishing 8665 (winner Finger on the Pulse - Northern Alliance (5th) Three others pulled up or fell Duetschland(PU) Lucky wish (Fell ) Montero (Fell) Nedzers return (Bd) Paco Jack(ur)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown, finishing 70
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's Munster National, finishing 34
5 of 10 winners (last 4) ran in a chase at that year's Cheltenham Festival, finishing 54404
Fingeronthepulse (fell Fulke Wylwyn challenge cup - fosters Cross 9th in the Arkle)
Ran over Hdles last time out :- Dancing Tornado -Ponmeoath -
Ran over Hdles last time out :- Dancing Tornado -Ponmeoath -
Trainers
Willie Mullins (2-2-12) has won the race twice in the last 5 years,(runs Duetschland)
As has Eric McNamara (2-1-6) who trained Ponmeoath to win it in 2007 and 2008. (runsPonmeoath)
As has Eric McNamara (2-1-6) who trained Ponmeoath to win it in 2007 and 2008. (runsPonmeoath)
Michael Hourigan (1-5-10) has seen 6 of his 10 runners make the frame(runs Mossbank)
while Tony Martin (1-1-5) saddled the 1st and 3rd last year. (runs Northern Alliance)
while Tony Martin (1-1-5) saddled the 1st and 3rd last year. (runs Northern Alliance)
British–trained runners (1-1-14) have gained 1 win and 1 place from 14 runners.
Jockeys
Ruby Walsh (4-1-8) has a super record in this race in the past decade, winning 4 of the last 6 renewals. (Rides Deutschland)
Paddy Flood (2-0-4) won the race twice on Ponmeoath in 07 & 08 (Rides? not declared yet)
Barry Geraghty (1-2-7) has bagged a win and 2 places from his 7 rides in the race since 2000.
Price
8 of 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 10/1
7 of the 10 winners came from the first 5 in the betting and none have been bigger than 14/1.
Favourites (1-4-11) gained their first win in the race for over 10 years in 2009. Level stakes loss of 5.00.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 6 to 9
· Officially rated 126 or higher
· Won or placed last time out (in last 30 days)
· Ran over hurdles last time out
· Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
· Second or third season chaser
· Won a chase worth 12K+
· Won or placed at Listowel Festival in previous years
· Ran in a chase at the 2010 Cheltenham Festival
· Priced between 4/1 to 10/1 (first 5 in the betting)
· Trained by W Mullins, M Hourigan, E McNamara or A J Martin
· Ridden by Ruby Walsh
££ Golden kite ran in a hdle race last time out - has won a chase worth 28K and is a course distance and ground winner over hdles(was disqualified and placed 2nd) is an 8 yr old carrying 10-3 has won off this 132 and is of 130 today is 3rd season chaser currently 12/1 ticks most of the trend boxes
£ Dancing Tornedo the choice of Tony Mccoy ran in a hdle last time out refused at his last chase has won a chase of 31K
£ Alpha beat has a brilliant profile - Barry Geraghty won its last start is only 6 and has to carry a great deal more than he has won off has not won this class
so thats my trends for this race and my selections - when you read the trend would apprciate your looking at them with your own eye and comment on your choice and why?
thanks guys
BobT
Result ---- 1 Alfa Beat 6/1 2 Dancing Tornado 7/2F 3 Finger Onthe Pulse 14/1 4 Swift Counsel 16/1
££ Golden kite ran in a hdle race last time out - has won a chase worth 28K and is a course distance and ground winner over hdles(was disqualified and placed 2nd) is an 8 yr old carrying 10-3 has won off this 132 and is of 130 today is 3rd season chaser currently 12/1 ticks most of the trend boxes
£ Dancing Tornedo the choice of Tony Mccoy ran in a hdle last time out refused at his last chase has won a chase of 31K
£ Alpha beat has a brilliant profile - Barry Geraghty won its last start is only 6 and has to carry a great deal more than he has won off has not won this class
so thats my trends for this race and my selections - when you read the trend would apprciate your looking at them with your own eye and comment on your choice and why?
thanks guys
BobT
Result ---- 1 Alfa Beat 6/1 2 Dancing Tornado 7/2F 3 Finger Onthe Pulse 14/1 4 Swift Counsel 16/1
18 ran Distances: 3½l, hd, 4l
TIME 5m 45.10s (slow by 0.10s)
TIME 5m 45.10s (slow by 0.10s)
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