28/12/2011

Leopardstown 12.55 2m 6k Novice HH Good to yielding

Star of Aragon off a Mark 110 faces tomorrow again an uphill track and more likely ground like LTo Soft -Heavy and too classy race. Races off a mark to win here in Ireland and Claimer takes loads of weight. Convinced me upthehill in Cheltenham even if it was a bunched finish the pace was strong enough for this class and stays this. Ground is a prob a bit too soft likes it more fast tendency, but I like it that there is a pacemaker with fav Cairdin in this race, whcih should suit my selection. LTO there was no real early pace going on.

Beat in Cheltenham Priors Gold with 3 lenghts who had after 124, 125, 121 OR
Lost with 2 lenghts to Inspector Closeau in Fairyhouse 123,130,132,135,129 OR formline

so is around 120-130 OR imo maybe and with an uphill and strong pace worthwhile at good odds.

Stake 1 /10 Win 15,0
Stake 1/10 Place ?

BOOOOOOOM! Back 30/1 Easy peasy from the bridle.Loosing run finished.

Lexus Chase 2.35 Leopardstown
Quito De La Roque is at 2.98 BSP racewise maybe not value, as Rubi Light goes early pace and there is a danger getting outpaced, but its an Inrunning play from 3/4-end.Noland available 12+ is a danger finsihed level with 170 rated What a friend a is valuewise maybe the play here. But there is for me age doubt

Stake 2/10 Quito De La Rogue Inrunning if not getting outpaced after halfway and still good in contention.

2.30 Leicester

Quipe Me Posted 14 BSP Win Stake 2/10 4,6 Place Stake 2/10

looks a gift to these odds. Beat two horses 14lenghts head to head was 2nd to useful Rilieyv with Tom Cannon on Board last season, can see this longshot winning today in this weak field.
LTO Pace was Slow,Slow,Fast,Fast and the horse was flying the best and made good headway late, tomorrow off a great mark, Cannon on Board, seems to travel best on Soft and has 2m4f which should suit. 2nd LTO the race in Cheltenham was just too classy and there was an very early fast gallop and it got outclassed.

Edit: Led and weakened heavily late.

3.35 Leicester

Royal Opera and Action Impact for me Im dutching these two. Stake 3/10 Odds 3.4
Lay Grams and Ounces Stake 3/10 Odds 4.8

Edit: Grams and Ounces Won again gambled down to 3.0 heavily.

Royal Opera from the front very strong for me, Action Impact some nice headway in a classy race and could profit from the Pace set by Royal Opera here. Grams and Ounces bugger race out for me, Bin End didnt convince me, that I think it would have stayed like the winners of that race and is pacewise not good I think. I finally decided to lay Grams and Ounces here today was gambled heavily Lto on bugger track Hereford racing with many onepaced animals over 2m4f and even nearly missed the gamble. Carries an extra penalty today of 7lbs and there is not this strong market support early. Faces a different class today and a galloping track the ground dries out and this is unsuitable coupled with 2 miles.
Maybe there are many who just bet on him, because it got gambled LTO, but to me the form LTO was weak it was a weak race from the class of the animals.