The Spinal Research The Atlantic 4 Gold Cup (formerly sponsored by Boylesports and several others) takes place at Cheltenham on tomorrow, 10th December. It is a grade 3 handicap chase, run over 2M 5F. Usually many horses that contested the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November run in this and 4 of the last 6 winners of this had made the frame in the Paddy Power Gold Cup on their previous start.
The race was not run in 2001 and 2008. Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings (1999 to 2010):
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-3-8
6yo: 4-7-22
7yo: 4-5-31
8yo: 2-9-34
9yo: 0-1-26
10yo+: 0-0-16
6 and 7 year olds have the best records. Between them they have won 8 of the last 10 renewals from approximately 35% of the total runners.
Horses aged 9+ have gained no wins and just 1 place from 42 runners since 1999. You have to go back to 1993 for the last 9yo winner and 1974 for the last winner aged over 9.
Breeding
French bred: 7-8-41
Irish bred: 2-14-58
American bred: 1-0-3
British bred: 0-3-31
German bred: 0-0-2
NZ bred: 0-0-2
French bred horses have won 7 of the last 8 runnings of this race and they have only represented 30% of the total runners in past 10 renewals.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-13 or more: 7-10-74
Horses carrying 10-12 or lower: 3-15-63
7 of 10 winners carried 10-13+ & last 4 winners all carried 11-4+
Record of top weight: 494P4P5PR91 (1-0-11). Poquelin won the race last year under top weight, though had a claimer taking 5lbs off.
4 of the 5 runners to carry a penalty have been placed (0-4-5)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 147 or higher: 4-8-47
Horses rated 146 or lower: 6-17-90
No huge bias on official ratings over the past 10 years, however if we focus on the past 5 renewals:
Horses rated 147 or higher: 4-5-31
Horses rated 146 or lower: 1-9-46
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 times that season
9 of 10 winners gained Mr of 144+ last time out
8 of 10 finished in the first 3 last time out
8 of 10 winners ran in past 30 days
10 of 10 winners had run in 6 to 14 chases prior to landing this
10 of 10 winners had previously won 2 to 4 times over fences
9 of 10 winners had run in 4 or less handicap chases (exception was Poquelin winning it for a 2nd time last year)
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases
10 of 10 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won or placed in a graded chase (exception was having first run in a graded chase but had won a class 2)
5 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (3 others were placed here)
Other Races
Previous year's winner (Poquelin): 501 (1-0-3)
Rainbow Riches @bluesq.com H'cap Chase winner (Roudoudou Ville): 1 (1-0-1)
Paddy Power Gold Cup winner (Great Endeavour): 4P15 (1-0-4)
Centenary Nov H'cap Chase winner (Divers): 84 (0-1-2)
Scilly Isles Novice Chase winner (Medermit): 6P (0-0-2)
Imperial Call Chase winner (Roberto Goldback): F8 (0-0-2)
Silver Trophy Chase winner (Poquelin): 500 (0-0-3)
4 of 10 winners (4 of last 6) ran in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, finishing 3125
2 of 10 winners ran in Wayward Lad Novice Chase, finishing 1F
2 of 2 Irish-trained winners ran in Bord Na Mona Nov Chase, finishing RU
2 of 2 Irish-trained winners ran in a graded novice chase at Punchestown Festival, finishing 26
7 of 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival (2 Grand Annual, 2 Arkle, 1 RSA, 1 Coral Cup & 1 Ryanair)
5 of 10 winners contested a chase at that year's Aintree Festival
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (2-7-19) has saddled Poquelin to win the race for past 2 years and he had also trained a placed finisher in the previous 5 renewals.
Jonjo O’Neill (2-1-6) and Nicky Henderson (2-0-10) have each won the race twice since 1999.
Philip Hobbs (1-1-7) and David Pipe (1-1-9) have each saddled a winner and a placed finisher in past 10 runnings.
Nicky Richards (0-3-4), Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-3-10) and Henrietta Knight have all trained multiple placed runners since 1999.
Irish trained horses (2-2-18) have gained 2 wins and 2 places from 18 runners. Both winners were 8yo second season chasers that had run in a graded novice chase at the Punchestown Festival.
Price 7 of 10 winners were priced between 7/2 and 8/1, however 3 of the last 5 winners were sent off 16/1 or bigger.
Favourites (1-2-10) don’t have a great record in this race. In 2009 Poquelin became the first winning favourite since 1996.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 or 7
- French bred
- Finished in the first 3 last time & posted an RPR of 144+
- Ran in the last 30 days
- Carrying 10-13+
- Officially rated 147+
- Run in 6 to 14 chases (winning 2 to 4)
- Run in 4 or less handicap chases (winning 2 or less)
- 2nd or 3rd season chaser
- Previously won or placed at Cheltenham
- Won or placed in a graded chase
- Finished in first 5 in Paddy Power Gold Cup
- Trained by J O’Neill, N Henderson, P Nicholls or N Richards
plenty to think about guys - let me have your opinions
Bob
selection - Roudoudou Ville (FR) is my horse to follow this term and will not let him go without a good bet today - this one is a joy to watch over his fences and will go right to the top this term this is the acid test for the horse and am unhappy that Reagan is not riding him. Has run to this mark and has trounced lesser opposition easily on the bridle from the front - I expect him to keep improving. his jumping will win it for him today and have a lot of conviction in the selection
Bob
selection - Roudoudou Ville (FR) is my horse to follow this term and will not let him go without a good bet today - this one is a joy to watch over his fences and will go right to the top this term this is the acid test for the horse and am unhappy that Reagan is not riding him. Has run to this mark and has trounced lesser opposition easily on the bridle from the front - I expect him to keep improving. his jumping will win it for him today and have a lot of conviction in the selection
Bob
6 comments:
Im beginning to lean towards Medermit, Alan King seems upbeat about his chances he likes Cheltenham, trip & ground suit.
I know a few races have already proven last seasons novices might not have been a good bunch but the Arkle form has not really been tested but prehaps its worth revisiting that race as 4 came clear of the 5th (Ghizao) - a possible indication of a higher class field?
So back to Medermit - He got outpaced a bit in the Amlin when losing by 12L's and 4Ibs to Masterminded. Paul Nicholls' former champion was on something of a recovery mission himself and broke the course record, so perhaps there's no disgrace in his defeat which would be worth a rating of about 163 - 4lbs for weight and 159, so if he can run Masterminded to 12L's LTO then in the context of this race he should be there or thereabouts.
Can see why mate its run at Exeter was to say the least fortunate but he is a bloody enigma - the run you highlite was the best form on offer but he does not really relish the hill enough for me and he has to want it today if he does I could well regret passing him over this time. his run against the ill fated Hells Bay here at cheltenham was terrific - hope you get the same want from him as that cos he will be there or therabouts at the end
Have put up my best improver for the race he has not got the form in the book but am in love with a big fence jumper who skips them and mine does fill the bill on that count alone
Hmmm, intresting thoughts on him not really relishing the hill, his runs at Cheltenham are as follows
2nd in a Supreme (should have won)
3rd in a Greatwood (top weight giving 3Ibs to Khyber Kim, lost by 3L's)
3rd in a Bula (5L's to Khyber this time and Celestial Halo in between)
7th in a Champion Hurdle
2nd in a Dipper (beaten 0.75L's by Hells Bay on only his second run over fences, front pair came 22L's clear of Reve de Sivola in 3rd)
4th in an Arkle (beaten 9.5L's, 2nd and 3rd won since, winner should have done)
Hmmm, maybe he does'nt really relish it as he should have won the Supreme and the Dipper. Oh well you pay your money and take your chance.
The run against Hells was unlucky rather than anything else I really really rated that race and he was easily the winner without Hells -- that was very very very good run --and im taking him on with an animal that has not shown that class!
Roudoudou Ville-- if you were not impressed with this animal give up backing that was one hell of a performance almost brought down and rider lost irons but still did everything a class horse is capable of --- Cream
Aye - it looks a class animal alright.
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