Coral Welsh National heavy ground 271211

The Coral Welsh National takes place at Chepstow on Tuesday 27th December. It is grade 3 handicap chase run over 3M 5½F, usually on soft or heavy ground, and it represents a serious test of any horse’s stamina.  

Below we take a look at the trends for the last 10 years:

10 of 10 winners have been aged 6 to 9

Horses aged 5 to 7 have a combined record of 6-11-55, which compares well to horses aged 8+ of 4-16-115.

Horses aged 10+ have a very poor record having failed to win a single renewal in the past 10 years and gaining just 4 places from 42 runners.

Breeding

In last 6 years French breeds have filled 13 of 24 places from less than 26% of the total runners

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 3-12-55

Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 7-16-115

No strong trend on weights, though higher weights have held an edge recently with 4 of last 5 winners carrying 10-8+

Top weight: PFP2PF3P2377 (0-4-12)

8 of 10 horses carrying a penalty that were racing from inside the h'cap finished in first 5

Official Ratings

From 2001 to 2005 all 5 winners were rated below 142 and only 5 of 18 places were filled by horses rated 142+.

From 2006 to 2010 4 of 5 winners were rated 142+ and 11 of 20 placed finishers were rated 142 or higher.

Since 2006: Horses rated 142 or higher: 4-7-38  Horses rated 141 or lower: 1-8-54

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time out

10 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days

10 of 10 winners has run either once or twice that season

10 of 10 winners had won over 3M or further

6 of 10 winners had won at Chepstow before (4 others were having first course start)

8 of 10 winners (last 7) had run in 6 or fewer handicap chases

10 of 10 winners had won no more that 2 handicap chase prior to this

9 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers

9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a listed/graded chase (exception had yet to run in a graded chase but won Becher Chase on last run)

4 of last 5 winners ran in a handicap hurdle on previous outing

last year the winner Synchronised fitted this profile exactly plus the fact it was top distance plus horse and was tops for  Course Cgl  Cod and c-R it had completed 91%win ratio from three runs on the forecast ground  this is the sort of profile we are looking for tomorrow 

Other races

Rewards4Racing Handicap Chase winner (Galaxy Rock): P6 (0-0-2)

3 of 10 winners ran in Haydock Grand National Trial, finishing 484

3 of 10 winners ran in the Midlands National, finishing 241

2 of 10 winners ran in the Totown Novice Chase, finishing 12

2 of 10 winners ran in the Scottish National, finishing 35

2 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Grand National, finishing 60

2 of 10 winners ran in the Becher Chase, finishing F1

9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 6 in the Welsh/Scottish/Irish/Midlands Grand Nationals, the Hennessy or NH Chase at Cheltenham (1 exception fell in the NH Chase when still in with a big chance)

Clearly form in a prestigious chase over 3M 2F or further is essential.

Trainers

Paul Nicholls (2-5-20) unsurprisingly has a good record in the race having won it twice in the last 7 years.

Jonjo O’Neill (2-0-5) has also won the race twice, including last year with Synchronised.

Alan King (1-3-8) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-3-11) have each saddled the winner and 3 placed finishers in the past 10 years.

Jim Dreaper (1-0-1) won the race in 2008 with Notre Pere.

Venetia Williams (0-3-7) trained the winner in 2000 and has seen 3 of her 7 runners in past 10 runnings make the places.

Irish trained runners (1-2-10) hadn't won the race until Notre Pere’s success in 2008.

Price

7 of 10 winners were priced 10/1 or shorter

Dream Alliance at 20/1 was the longest priced winner in the past 10 years.

The favourite (1-4-11) has won just 1 of the last 10 and shows a level stakes loss of 5.67.

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• Aged 5 to 9
• French bred horses do well
• Officially rated 142 or higher
• Finished in the first 4 last time out in past 55 days
• Had 1 or 2 runs this season
• Ran over hurdles last time out
• Course winner (or having first course start)
• Won over 3M or further
• Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 2)
• Won or placed in a graded chase
• Second or third season chaser
• Finished in first 4 in Midlands National or Haydock GN Trial
• First 6 in another Grand National, Hennessy Gold Cup or 4M NH Chase
• Trained by P Nicholls, Jonjo O’Neill A King or N Twiston-Davies

My Notebook - As De Fer (Fr) Sam Thomas went well heavy ground Exeter 130211 very unexposed won it easy 

 281111 only 5 yrs old won well from the front hacked up 3miles ffos llas 7.49 betfair class 3 won as he liked under top  weight imp 9 top cgl crs cod cgl c-r page 7 253 dsr very smart indeed was 50/1 before this race for the welsh national wont be that price now! currently 14/1 betfair   bred to stay and stay.


  Update 271211 So with the stats for 5 yr old a bit shaky and as much as I love the horse it is prone to inexperience and therefore not the only one to back in my opinion 
horses to note in the market


Master Overseer - CDG over hdles went of fav last time on heavy but hit too many - is the best backed of Pipe yard runners today and only 10-00 on its back has appeal - will stay

Giles Cross beaten by Synchonised into second last year is running well and is well in today
La Beau Bai a truly lovely stayer gets loads of pluses off this mark 


 Complete outsider with great chance of the frame is Or Noir De Samoza - went well over hdles last run won heavy ground chase in France and went well till the aintree national till hitting the beechers brook fence like a train into buffers


 that's it have a great race allllllllllllll


 Bob