Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 or 7
- Run at least twice this season
- Finished in the first 2 last time out in past 30 days
- Won over 2M 4F+
- Run in 2 or 3 chases prior to this
- Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 chase or hurdle
- Had last start in the Drinmore Novice Chase
- Trained by Noel Meade, Jim Dreaper or John Berry
6 of 10 winners came from the first 2 in the betting, though in the past 3 winners there have been 2 winners priced 14/1 and 25/1.
Last Instalment his form figures to date are already starting to suggest he is a horse that needs this cut to be seen at his best and he is the one to beat when the mud is flying
First lieutenant pulled up in the Drinmore chase and The second that Day was Shinrock Paddy (winner was Bog Warrior) First Lieutenant almost took the fence out and yet was asked to continue he had a very very hard race gaining ground before pulling up when his monkey of a jock got the message every one else got 4 fences back! ) Shinrock had no chance to collect against Bog Warrior who is simply fantastic - but did all its best work at the end of the race staying on very well having been prominent If Bog Warrior had turned up for this race it would have been no contest. however there are chances that this race will be break neck speed and many casualties Shinrock is a sticky jumper but an improving profile and a breeding line that suggests this is its distance - the joker in the pack has to be Son Amix who looks a brill lil jumper in the making who has never been able to get its head in front but has the potential to surprise must be noted for its run today. You have to respect Alle Garde wins over 3miles hdles handles soft and heavy ground
am going for the blues for the forecast but its close
Bob
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2 comments:
Looking at the race,
First Lieutnant got in my eyes outpaced when unseated and today is similar thing I guess strong pace. Cannot have it at that price, but is one to me here that could outclass them, as im not sure how the UR affected, it looked abit outpaced already,but 2nd LTO looked way stronger.
Last Installment I cannot have aswell, when pulled up in fast HH against Raptor and Allee Garde.
Shinrock Paddy seemed to me too one paced late. To me the winner ist First Lieutnant, Allee Garde or Raptor and watching the Head to Head Hurdle race in Punchestown and the odds of 5.1 for Alle Garde and 14 for Raptor, I will go with Raptor Each Way as I see also advantages with his running style and the uphill today. Dont understand how between these two can be such an odds discrepancy, when finished in a fast race level.
Boom mate!
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