2.40 Hereford 2m5f Hcp Chase
Mud Monkey OFF a mark of 118
Betfair SP 18 Place SP 5,0
Front Runner Mud Monkey will profit from the easy track and the downhill runin and is down in class with a good weight and TJ O Brien is booked, travelled nicely LTO in a truly run Ch3 and just Fell when good in contention, will force the pace tomorrow and has a big shout. Odds of 17+ are very value.
Finished 3 length to 131 unadjusted Midnight appeal in 2nd
Finished 3/4 length to Double The Trouble 126 unadjusted in 2nd
I think its a great chance to dominate a field on an easy track for this horse under TJ Obrien, so these odds will hopefully steam tomorrow.
Sherwani Wolf could be a real candidate, that will steam in tomorrow, LTO 11 lenghts against useful Invictus and raced before in Newbury, has now 2 very high class races and will love the easy track and the easier opposition. Steamed in already in form 7.0-4.0 and is a bit short for me at these odds.
Here are my other two bets I play very small,
Hereford 1.10 2m Ch5
Sablazo
Raced LTO in a pretty decent Ch5 event in Ludlow with two decent progressing types and simply got outpaced as this was a strong pace and stopped at the 2m2f mark after chasing the leaders pretty well, Won before on Soft Ground a 2m2f in Fontwell and I think this track and lower distance of 2m coupled with the ground should suit much more. I dont see a stand out progressing type in this race so odds of 15 should be value for this horse. Its really a weak Class 5 event, so everything can happen there.
1 Unit Win 15,0 Betfair SP
Hereford 2.10 2m4f HH4
Picot De Say
I think this horse represents a good value in this weak HH4 contest. It changed the stable but raced LTO a decent 2nd to American Art and what I really like is the form finishing 2nd to Caddie Master an 120+ rated runner with 3 lenghts. Is racing off a mark 110 today and can also win here. odds of 20 on the exchanges are a bit extreme I think.
1 Points Win 20,0 Betfair SP
Note: Heavy gambled down favourite!!!!!!
Good Luck!
7 comments:
Hi Rade - yep the form for this race looks solid Mud monkey is a confirmed front runner and O'Brien will get it right - decent jumper in the main BUT all the signs are this ground may catch it out at the end of the race - it would certainly be shorter in better ground. if it is no worse than G/soft and early races will prove that - he is a win bet for me too. Has the experience to beat Shewani Wolf today - that one was in a limited novice handicap and I for one was less impressed with his jumping than most very high and clumsy - got its act together just before that horrible blunder when he actually jumped off the wrong leg - after that he jumped high again looking after itself.. it has some engine but think its a left handed animal really and its inexperience could count against him -- will be looking for A BTL
Money for the uttox winner Dont Tell Sailor would be significant as he has not run on this forecast soft ground - but he ping's his fences and out of Saddlers breeding should handle the going!
good luck its a decent chase
Bob
Im against Mud Monkey on the basis he's a dodgy jumper & Shewani Wolf I believe is better after a break of 40 days or more.
I fancy Mallusk @ 5/1 as he goes well fresh and connections will have him primed for today. Also have a little on Mylord Collonges @16/1 as his record in class 4 races is excellent.
See my post on my blog here
http://the-inside-track.blogspot.com/
they all have lots of question marks over their jumping that's for sure but dont think you can say this will be much of a contest on that front - your selection Mallusk is one big bugger of a horse - was actually at uttox for its first fencing round and he was pretty effective and wrote it as a natural left handed animal (though he hasn't confirmed that since!) good luck on its first run back mate
Do you know what struck me with Mallusk, that the jockey is different, why have a big shout at a seasonal reappearance and not book the topjockey for this horse?
The jockeys not a problem Rade, as he uses Maguire and if not avalible then Quinlan.
Bos selection ran a cracker race,very unlucky! Well done youre inform with your ideas imo
think Sailor ran a decent race but agin showed thats he better left handed and will win more races going that way and better ground will suit it more - its an improver no doubt about it
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