The Betfred Becher Handicap Chase, 031211 off at 2.10

The Betfred Becher Handicap Chase, takes place tomorrow  Saturday 3rd December, is a 3M 2F listed contest run over the Grand National fences. Twice in the past decade, the winner of this race has gone on to win the Grand National (Amberleigh House and Silver Birch in a later season). Last year’s winner, Hello Bud, will be looking to become the first horse to win back to back renewals on Saturday. A race that Martin seems to do very well in over the years

 past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 0-1-1

6yo: 0-1-4

7yo: 1-1-17

8yo: 2-7-29

9yo: 3-7-49

10yo: 3-2-28

11yo: 0-5-17

12yo+: 1-0-11

8 of the last 10 winners have been aged 8 to 10 though that age bracket has accounted for 68% of the total runners.

The only horse aged below 8 to win this since 2001 was Silver Birch who subsequently won the Grand National.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 5-12-73

Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 5-12-83

There are no very strong trends on the weights though 3 of the last 5 winners carried 11-5+.

Top Weight: 6FF541FP15 (2-1-10)

Horses racing from out of the handicap: 2-4-30

Horses racing from 7lbs or more out of the handicap: 0-1-9 

Official Ratings

Horses rated 143 to 157: 3-3-16

Horses rated 127 to 142: 3-16-91

Horses rated 112 to 126: 4-5-49

The last 5 winners have been officially rated 133 to 148.

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on last completed start

10 of 10 winners had won over 2M4F+

7 of 10 winners had won over 3M+

7 of 10 winners had run in the last 45 days

7 of 10 winners had run in at least 13 chases (3 exceptions were trained by Paul Nicholls)

7 of 10 winners had previously run in 10 to 22 handicap chases (3 exceptions were trained by Paul Nicholls)

7 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases

7 of 10 winners were 4th or 5th season chasers (3 exceptions were trained by Paul Nicholls)

8 of 10 winners had won a chase at class 2 or higher

5 of 10 winners had run over the National fences (3 of 5 exceptions were trained by Nicholls, 1 had won the Cork National and 1 had completed the last 2 Irish Nationals)

Other Races

Previous season's winner (Hello Bud): 232 (0-3-3) Now 13 cannot have him today

Classic Chase winner (West End Rocker): 1 (1-0-1)  will love the ground today but has been running stinkers can run to this mark and was jumping these fences like a stag in the grand national when brought down at beechers

Topham Chase winner (Always Waining): 170FU (1-0-5) saves its best for this track but lagged around the back last time in a hurdles under maguire -- cant help feeling that was a prep race for this  because that's how they train this animal gets in here at 140 which he is well capable of (ran to a mark I made as 146 over hdles and has won chases of my mark of 150 

3 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Paddy Power Chase, finishing 042

3 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in prev year's Troytown, finishing 764

2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Leopst'n H’cap Chase, finishing 44

2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Irish Grand National, finishing P8

2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Pat Taaffe H’cap Chase, finishing 02

2 of 10 winners ran in that year's Grand National, finishing F5

2 of 10 winners ran in Haydock Grand National Trial, finishing P8

Racing Style

8 of 10 winners (last 7) raced prominently with leaders throughout

Trainers

Paul Nicholls (3-3-14) has trained the winner three times in the past 6 years and had the runner-up in 2 of the 3.

Dessie Hughes (2-1-3) has trained the first and third in 2008 and the winner in 2009.

Sue Smith (1-1-8) trained Ardent Scout to gain a win and 2 places in the race.

Jonjo O’Neill (1-0-4) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-8) have each won the race once in the past 10 years.

Irish based trainers (3-3-25) have a good recent record in the race having won it 3 times in the last 6 years.

Price

No strong trends on prices, though 6 of the last 8 winners have gone off shorter than 8/1 but 3 others winners since 2001 have gone off at 25/1 or bigger.

Favourites (2-4-11) have won 2 renewals in the past 10 years and show a level stakes profit of 3.50.

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• Aged 8 to 10
• Officially rated 133 or higher
• Finished in the first 5 on last completed start
• Has run in the last 45 days
• Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F+ (ideally over 3M+)
• Run at least 13 times over fences
• Run in 10 to 22 handicap chases (but won no more than 2)
• 4th or 5th season chaser (or trained by Paul Nicholls)
• Previous form over the National fences is a positive
• Tends to race prominently

Cannot see Hello Bud at 13 taking this for the second year 

 West end Rocker was jumping like a stag in the grand national when he got brought down at Beechers (6th) has been jumping like a pig of late and  has all the stats cannot see him running tomorrow unless King is positive is back to its best currently 16/1 

Always Waining is interesting in that he saves his best for here is a front running animal and last run looked as if he is here in peak form - soft ground is a bit of a worry if it dries to g/soft hes well in 11/1 tonight

Ballyvessy again for Bowen ran a half decent race last year - headed the winner three from home and, while he tired from the final fence, this was a decent effort from 5lb out of the weights. is only 2lbs out of the weights tomorrow it was soft that day and will be watching if the overnight 20/1 moves in or out.and Hughes gets the ride, he is 2 from only 17 rides for Bowen 20/1 overnight

 good luck its a thriller

 Bob
 Result and a great one for me - 1 West End Rocker 10/1  2 Niche Market 9/1 3 Ballyvesey 20/1 


Horses had to encounter testing ground on the National course, with it being changed to heavy in places, but some jockeys felt it wasn´t quite as soft as the other tracks.

This was the first race over the newly regulated fences, although it was no surprise to still see some mishaps. However, this didn´t represent the test some of them will face on spring ground in the National.

Predictably the runners finished tired, but one significantly less so than the others, WEST END ROCKER, who was unluckily brought down in last season´s Grand National, but jumped well here, having recovered from an early scare, and relished the testing conditions, racing to a clear-cut victory. Stamina was never going to be an issue, having won over 3m5f in heavy ground at Warwick last season, and few would appeal more for the big one were it to come up soft in April. That´s unlikely, however, and his handicap mark will also now be affected.

Niche Market, fifth from a 3lb higher mark in last season´s Grand National, would probably have preferred slightly better ground as the conditions looked to take a toll on him from the second-last. He was given a well-judged ride and will no doubt return in April for another crack at the big one.

Balleyvesey, a creditable fourth in the race last year when just a 5yo, had a visor back on and came from out of nowhere late on to claim a distant third. It was clearly a good effort, but he probably didn´t achieve a great deal. still a national bet for me!

Stablemate Always Waining, winner of the Topham for the past two seasons, was 7lb higher than for the last of those and again upped his game for the return to this course, despite not jumping the fences as accurately as he usually does. That may have been due to the ground, however, and it was no surprise to see him empty out late on over this trip. He´ll stand a fair chance of a Topham hat-trick come April.