The Ladbroke is a 2M Listed Handicap Hurdle that takes place at Ascot on Saturday, 17th December. Always a highly competitive affair, it is generally won by more unexposed improving types. The race was first run in 2001, but has taken place at Sandown twice and has been abandoned for the past 2 years.
Below we take a look at the trends for the 8 runnings since 2001.
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-7-27
5yo: 5-6-52
6yo: 1-7-32
7yo: 2-2-18
8yo: 0-1-15
9yo+: 0-1-10
8 of 8 winners have been aged 5 to 7
Horses aged 8+ (0-2-25) have a very poor record having gained no wins and just 2 places from 25 runners.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 7-13-97
Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 1-11-57
Horses carrying 10-9+ have won 7 of the last 8 (including the last 6) and have filled 19 of 24 places in the last 6 renewals.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 140 or higher: 1-2-16
Horses rated 130 to 139: 4-10-77
Horses rated 129 or lower: 3-12-61
No strong trends on official ratings.
Recent/Past Form
5 of 8 winners won last time out
7 of 8 winners finished in first 3 last time out
6 of 8 winners gained their highest RPR on their last outing
7 of 8 winners were having seasonal debut or had run once
7 of 8 winners previously ran in 4 to 10 times over hurdles
8 of 8 winners had won 1 to 3 times over hurdles
7 of 8 winners had run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles
8 of 8 winners had won no more than 2 handicap hurdles
7 of 8 winners were second season hurdlers
5 of 8 winners (last 5) ran at the Cheltenham Festival the previous March
Other races
WilliamHill.com H'cap Hurdle winner (Brampour): 1 (1-0-1)
Greatwood Hurdle winner (Brampour): 84 (0-1-2)
Imperial Cup winner (Alarazi): 0P30 (0-1-4)
Bet365.com H'cap Hurdle winner (Raya Star): 0 (0-0-1)
Sportingbet Novice Hurdle winner (Prospect Wells): 8 (0-0-1)
3 of 8 winners ran in the Caspar Caviar H'cap Hurdle last time, finishing 321
2 of 8 winners ran in the Swinton Hurdle, finishing 01
2 of 8 winners ran in the County Hurdle, finishing 70
5 of 8 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival (2 County Hurdle, 1 Arkle, 1 Triumph & 1 Supreme Novices)
Trainers
Nicky Henderson (3-2-13) has won 3 of 8 runnings to date, including the last 2.
The Pipe stable (3-2-21) have also won the race 3 times since its inception but have no representative this year.
Venetia Williams (1-1-6) is the only other trainer with an entrant to have previously won the race.
Trainers who have saddled multiple placed runners include Gary Moore (0-3-10) and Paul Nicholls (0-2-7).
Irish trained runners (0-2-15) have gained just 2 places from 15 representatives.
Price
5 of 8 winners have been priced between 7/1 and 14/1
Favourites (1-0-8) have a poor record having won just once in eight runnings, giving a level stakes loss of 4.75.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 5 to 7
- Finished in first 3 last time (ideally won)
- Posted their highest MR last time
- Carrying 10-9+
- Run no more than once this season
- Second season hurdler
- Run 4 to 10 times over hurdles (winning 1 to 3)
- Run in 5 or less handicap hurdles (winning no more than 2)
- Ran at the 2011 Cheltenham Festival
- Trained by N Henderson, V Williams, G Moore or P Nicholls
A hard race to crack with so many close in the stats the ground will determine a great deal for those like Brampour who want to come off the pace.
am sweet on Abergavenny is the only one who has only run once this season, is an up with the pace animal in only its second handicap today off a a mark it ran to last time at Cheltenham at only 4 is in experienced but the pace angle looks solid -
Via Galiiei has some form on this ground on the flat but is a worry - Moore For Moore and can get placed.
One Joker in the pack Rigidity likes to run to the pace in soft/heavy ground and cannot see why it is such a big price with only 10-00 on its back gets into the weights at 9-11 with a dcent 5lbs claimer and could well be the dark horse of the race in its first handicap - the grade 1 it contested last time showed he is a handicapper but has a touch of class
and the other Joker has to be Act Of Kalanisi with a great lil claimer again only its second run of the season and an up with the pace animal has course distance and going form.
So For me its divided stakes win and place Abergaveny and Act Of Kalanisis
good luck let me know what YOU think
Bob
1 comment:
Rigidity likes to run to the pace in soft/heavy ground and cannot see why it is such a big price with only 10-00 on its back gets into the weights at 9-11 with a dcent 5lbs claimer and could well be the dark horse of the race in its first handicap - the grade 1 it contested last time showed he is a handicapper but has a touch of class"what a darkun it is indeed"
1 Raya Star 12/1
2 Rigidity 40/1
3 Alarazi 16/1
4 Prospect Wells 11/4 Fav
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