We are spoilt Sunday 041211

The Bar One Racing Hatton’s Grace Hurdle is a grade 1 run over 2M 4F for 4yos and upwards. It is one of the three grade 1 events taking place The race brings together top class 2 mile hurdlers as well as the best staying hurdlers and has been won by such top class horses as Brave Inca, Limestone Lad and Hurricane Fly in the past decade.

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 0-0-1

5yo: 0-1-13

6yo: 4-8-23

7yo: 2-0-14

8yo: 2-2-8

9yo: 1-1-6

10yo+: 1-2-6

Horses aged 5 or under have gained just 1 place from 14 runners. The only horse younger than 6 to ever win the race was the mighty Istabraq as a 5yo in 1997.

Horses aged 6 to 8 have won the last 8 runnings. The only horse aged over 8 to win this was Limestone Lad, when winning the race for a 2nd and 3rd time.

Gender

Mares (3-2-11) have gained 3 wins and 2 seconds from 11 runners, though those stats are distorted by fact that Solerina accounted for all 3 successes.

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners won last completed start (2 exceptions were 3rd in Morgiana)

9 of 10 winners ran in last 35 days (exception Hurricane Fly last year)

10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F

10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle

9 of 10 winners were course winners (exception yet to run here)

7 of 10 winners had won a bumper (other 3 had finished in first 4 in a group or listed race on flat)

Other Races

Lismullen Hurdle winner (Voler La Vedette): 211222175 (3-4-9)

Morgiana Hurdle winner (Thousand Stars): 1211332 (3-3-7)

Deloitte Novice Hurdle winner (Oscars Well): 125 (1-1-3)

Boyne Hurdle winner (Voler La Vedette): 1264 (1-1-4)

WKD Hurdle winner (The Real Article): 1 (1-0-1)

Navan Novice Hurdle winner (Oscars Well): 1 (1-0-1)

Tipperary Hurdle winner (The Real Article): 519 (1-0-3)

Previous season's Royal Bond winner (Zaidpour): 275 (0-1-3)

Leopardstown Christmas Hurdle winner (Mourad): 44284 (0-1-5)

9 of 10 winners ran at Punchestown Festival (4 World Series Hurdle, 3 in Champ Hd'l & 2 in Cathal Ryan Memorial Champion Nov Hd'l)

6 of 10 winners ran at the Leopardstown Christmas Festival (3 Festival Hurdle, 2 Future Champions Nov Hurdle & 1 Christmas Hurdle)

3 of 10 winners ran at Cheltenham Festival (2 Champion Hurdle & 1 World Hurdle)

6 of 10 winners ran in the Lismullen Hurdle, finishing 21111F

4 of 10 winners ran in the Morgiana last time out, finishing 1133

3 of 3 previous season novice winners ran in Synergy Solutions Nov Hurdle, finishing 123

2 of 10 winners ran in the Tipperary Hurdle finishing 1F

2 of 10 winners ran in Coolmore N.H Sires Novice Hurdle, finishing 11

Trainers

Colm Murphy (1-3-5) gained a 1 win and 2 places from running Brave Inca in the race and saddled Voler La Vedette to place last year.

Noel Meade (1-2-9), Willie Mullins (1-1-9) and Eddie O’Grady (1-0-7) have all trained the winner in past 4 years.

Price

10 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting

No winner has gone off higher than 11/2 in the last 10 years.

The favourite (5-2-12) has won 5 of last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 1.04.

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• Aged 6 to 8
• Won last time out in the last 35 days
• Won over 2M 4F
• Won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
• Course winner
• Bumper winner or finished in first 4 in class 1 flat race
• Finished in the first 3 in Lismullen and/or Morgiana Hurdle
• Ran in a grade 1 hurdle at the 2011 Punchestown Festival
• Ran in a grade 1 or 2 at 2010 Leopardstown Christmas Festival  
• From the first 3 in the betting

 The Royal Bond Novice Hurdle is the first of three Grade 1 races which take place on the Fairyhouse card the winner usually goes towards the top of either the Supreme Novices’ or Ballymore Properties Hurdle betting for the next year’s Cheltenham Festival. Previous winners include subsequent Champion Hurdlers Istabraaq, Hardy Eustace & Hurricane Fly and Champion Chase winners Moscow Flyer and Newmill.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 5-5-22

5yo: 3-10-38

6yo: 1-1-18

7yo+: 1-1-5

4 & 5yos have won 8 of the last 10 runnings of this race, with 4yos holding the best individual record.

Both winners that were aged 6+ were unbeaten over hurdles and had won the Irish Champion Bumper.

Gender

Mares (1-1-12) have won just 1 of the past 10 runnings. Since 2000 there have been two successful mares in this, both had won the grade 1 Irish Champion Bumper.

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners won last time out (both exceptions were in 2nd in a graded hurdle on last start)

9 of 10 winners ran in the last 50 days

8 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 3 hurdles previously (two exceptions had run in 4 or 5 hurdles)

10 of 10 winners had won at least once over hurdles

7 of 10 winners had contested a graded hurdle or bumper (3 exceptions were all unbeaten over hurdles)

6 of 10 winners were unbeaten over hurdles (4 exceptions finished in first 4 in a graded hurdle)

8 of 10 winners had won a hurdle or bumper by 5+ lengths

6 of 10 winners had their last run at Navan or Punchestown

6 of 10 winners had won a bumper (2 exceptions had won a listed or group race on the flat)

Other Races

Punchestown Champ Bumper winner (Lovethehigherlaw): 121 (2-1-3)

For Auction Hurdle winner (Il Fenomeno): 5951229 (1-2-7)

Ireland v England Maiden Hurdle winner (Corbally Ghost): 1 (1-0-1)

Buy Annual Badge Maiden Hd’l winner (Il Fenomeno): 0382 (0-2-4)

Tote Pick Six Maiden Hurdle winner (Galileo's Choice): 47 (0-0-2)

EBF Mares Grade 3 Novice Hurdle winner (Miss Nomer): 646 (0-0-3)

3 of 10 winners ran in Punchestown Champion Bumper, finishing 161

2 of 10 winners ran in Goffs Land Rover Bumper, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in For Auction Novice Hurdle, finishing 21

Trainers

Noel Meade (3-3-13) has won 3 of the last 7 runnings and saddled the 3rd in ‘06 & ‘10 and 2nd in ‘08 and had no runner in ‘09.

Willie Mullins (2-2-11) has trained 2 of the last 3 winners.

Jessica Harrington (1-2-3) and Charlie Swan (1-0-2) have also trained the winner once in the past 10 years.

Eddie O’Grady (0-4-5) seen 4 of his 5 runners finish 2nd in last 10 years.

Price

9 of 10 winners were priced 7/1 or lower

The last 10 winners all came from the first 4 in the betting with 10/1 being the highest priced winner.

The favourite (4-4-10) has only won 4 of the last 10 but still shows a level stakes loss of 2.52.

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• Aged 4 or 5 (especially 4yos)
• Run 1 to 3 times over hurdles (winning at least once)
• Won last time out (or 2nd in a graded hurdle)
• Had last run in the past 50 days
• Had last run at Navan or Punchestown
• Won a bumper or a group/listed race on flat
• Won a hurdle or bumper by 5+ lengths
• Ran in a graded bumper/hurdle or unbeaten over hurdles
• Ran in the Champion Bumper at Punchestown
• Trained by Noel Meade, Willie Mullins or Jessica Harrington

The kelso card  includes the marathon 4miler  Borders National and will be my big race for betting  its only had two previous runs to stats are thin on the ground  both races were on soft ground and both winners had distance and ground conditions to their liking aged Nine and Ten  -- anyone who reads this blog will be able to guess where my pin has landed overnight 

 Bob