Ascot 15.40 NHF
Claret Oak was really impressive in his debut and should win again. Nice odds for this talented horse. NAP!
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,469081_3,00.html
Ascot 1.55 2m HS1
Molotof is a beautiful horse to me, that runs very strong, holds his head very straight can accelerate fast and come into extra gear, really looks like a winner type. I guess it will beat the fav tomorrow.
Here are the sectional fence to fence from 2 races at the Wincanton meeting on 5/11/2011
Winner Molotof OR 143
Runde 8 00:00:14.90 00:03:19.20
Runde 7 00:00:19.64 00:03:04.30
Runde 6 00:00:51.23 00:02:44.66
Runde 5 00:00:14.66 00:01:53.43
Runde 4 00:00:22.68 00:01:38.77
Runde 3 00:00:21.80 00:01:16.08
Runde 2 00:00:32.63 00:00:54.27
Round 1 00:00:21.64 00:00:21.64
Winner Celestial Halo OR166
Runde 8 00:00:16.22 00:03:18.32
Runde 7 00:00:21.57 00:03:02.09
Runde 6 00:00:54.64 00:02:40.52
Runde 5 00:00:15.01 00:01:45.87
Runde 4 00:00:21.40 00:01:30.85
Runde 3 00:00:20.74 00:01:09.45
Runde 2 00:00:29.49 00:00:48.70
Runde 1 00:00:19.21 00:00:19.21
Celestial Halo was very fast in the beginning making all, but the closing sectionals from Molotof are very nice, considering, that Celestial Halo really went power from the very start of the race.
The Strawberry One based on ability of spring form 2011 on cIm tracks available at odds of 40 I have to take as Im confident that there is a bit of class in this animal when watching the video of his Market Rasen run 2nd LTO. Also the jockey booking is interesting coupled with the intuition, that being held up could be worth in this contest this time. LTO was after long layoff against really strong prospects but Is still my value bet on Win and Place of the day.
14.30 2m3f Novice Chase Class1
Pacha Du Polder 4.4 Betfair SP is to me a cracking price in this contest here. This one could be a really good one to follow,just watching the horse is impressive,as its a real chase from the makeup and looks perfect. LTO in Sandown he raced in 2 runner race and to me the form is
top Notch, i was really a truly run race and I compared the fence to fence sectionals with the 2m4 CH3 contest with the winner Roudouville(FR) OR 145, who went on to have a cracking race finishing 3rd in the Atlantic 4 Gold Cup in Cheltenham, having lost an iron and being the best animal in this contest. And watching Pascha Du Bolders last race it is incredible how smooth and boldly he jumps also very high and straightfoward making loads of ground, the sectionals against Roudouville are even better, way better and I think that this horse can considering the way it jumps, the way it looks from the makeup being a high class chaser. Today doesnt really face Class1(Grade 2+) winning horses and the 4.4 on offer seem to me very generous, as people underestimate LTO form. Today is the right time to jump on this animal as its still unexposed for the punters.
Cheers rade!
8 comments:
what a great write up Rade thanks very much - I also like the selection of The Strawberry One - until I saw today's going is SOFT and am not all sure she will handle it against the boys again today - her best showing has been on high Cim tracks but on better ground than this her run at Market Rasen was on g/sft and that's the best omen for her today even though that was further she was only just denied -if the ground was dryer I would be tempted with a decent bet but there are others better in even though she is back in novice company I have to give a touch of caution - she can win it with her class but feel that Peckhamecho with its love of soft ground holds better chances of beating Hazy Tom in this race
Claret Oak - well touted today but again the ground says its too short for me - like the chances of some decent soft ground bumper types with concentration on the chelt bumper winner (filly makes me think!because no filly has won this race) Golden Firebird - progeny of Old Vic should relish the ground and track stiffness
there is a good chance that the multiple points winner Powerman will get into the place market at massive odds as this race is usually very muddling and lacking pace
2.30 is a terrific race and your selection solid - think that Michael Flips though up in grade has the form on soft ground - (its second to Cue Card was pretty good stuff) will give him a lot to do - loves this track and good performer though up in grade is in the main a very good fencer
Bob youre right with that Soft thing, as i wrote it was G-S, but nevertheless he is out of form completely, Molotof really nice race and also your selection, Hyza Tom didnt get the uncontested lead nice.
With Pacha Du Polder, especially with that drift now very value, as I think it will relish the Soft Ground and there will be late money in this hopefully.7,0 BSP great value for this talented horse.
Pacha Du Polder raced very different today, maybe it was the ground, but also the high fences that stop his speed are unsuited. He jumped today slowly and looked from the beginning as he doesnt want today. Nice perfromance from Zaynar
thanks Rade my only winning return today at Ascot - the reverse forecast
1 Molotof 2/1
2 Peckhamecho 13/2
3 Hazy Tom 10/11F
and the lay on the favvy so happy daze
Thank you too for your good selections, for me there is imo a real tale to overcome, but I was also a bit sloppy with my analysis the last month. There is always this unknown factor in racing also with the longshots, your long shot looked good on paper if can bounce back, but didnt and for me The Strawberry One is out of form, really was different horse way back (maybe also whip changes?) and the Soft Ground. Your concern with the pace in Claret Oaks bumper race was a reason I think, why the horse finsihed 2nd coupled with the Soft ground lottery, as it didnt come into gear in any way like before. Molotof race was just brilliant as the racesetup was perfect and the horse handled the ground and the idea of the fav loosing was due to that it didnt got an uncontested lead and faced stronger animals. Pascha Du Bolder ran not in any way like before, didnt lead the race jumped sloppy, why? Also Walsh rode him held Up, does he not prefer to make it boldly from the front on a frontrunner small field track like Ascot.
See ya soon!
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