The Grade 1 John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Steeplechase 2.05

The Grade 1 John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Steeplechase takes place on Sunday, 11th December. The best Irish staying chasers of recent times have won this, including Florida Pearl, Beef Or Salmon and Kicking King. Joncol and Tranquil Sea, who have won the past 2 runnings, make up part of small but select of field of entries at the 5-day stage. 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 3-1-6

7yo: 2-4-9

8yo: 3-4-24

9yo: 2-4-19

10yo+: 0-1-7

11yo+: 0-0-4

Horses aged 6 to 8 have a combined record is 8-9-39 and have won the last 8.

Horses aged 9+ have a combined record of 2-5-30 and 2 winners aged 9 were Florida Pearl (2nd previous year) and Native Upmanship (finished 1st and 2nd previous 2 years).

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (exception unseated)

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 150+ last time out (exception unseated)

10 of 10 winners had their last start in the past 40 days

10 of 10 winners had had 1 or 2 runs that season

10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+

10 of 10 winners had won a graded chase

6 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase (4 exceptions finished in first 3 in grade 1 chase)

8 of 10 winners (last 8) had run in 5 to 14 chases prior to this

8 of 10 winners (last 8) were second or third season chasers (both exceptions were 2nd in the previous year's race)

10 of 10 were officially rated 150+

Other Races

Previous year's winner (Tranquil Sea): 25352 (0-1-5)

Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup (Kempes): 112 (2-1-3)

Clonmel Oil Chase winner (Tranquil Sea): 251 (1-1-3)

Nas Na Riogh Novice Chase winner (Roi Du Mee): 31 (1-0-2)

Red Mills Chase winner (Rubi Light): 2P2 (0-2-3)

Thurles Chase winner (Joncol): 324 (0-2-3)

Star Chase winner (Roi Du Mee): 523 (0-2-3)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus, finishing 211

3 of 10 winners ran in the Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 112

3 of 10 winners ran in JNWine Champion Chase last time, finishing 32U

2 of 10 winners ran in Clonmel Oil Chase last time, finishing 21

2 of 10 winners ran in Poplar Square Chase last time, finishing 22

2 of 10 winners ran in Ladbrokes.com Chase last time, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in Powers Gold Cup, finishing 22

6 of 10 winners ran at Cheltenham Festival (2 Arkle, 2 Gold Cup, 1 Ryanair & 1 RSA)

6 of 10 winners ran at Punchestown Festival (3 Gold Cup, 2 Ryanair Novice & 1 Growise Novice Chase)

Trainers

Willie Mullins (1-1-7) trained Florida Pearl to win this in 2001 and saddled J’y Vole to take 2nd last year.

Paul Nolan (1-0-1) and Eddie O’Grady (1-0-2) have trained the last 2 winners.

Price

10 of 10 winners were priced 7/1 or below

The last 10 winners all came from the first 4 in the betting.

Favourites (5-2-11) have won 5 of the last 10 runnings & show a level stakes profit of 0.93.

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• Aged 6 to 8
• Run once or twice this season
• Finished in first 3 last time, posting MR 150+
• Ran in the last 40 days
• Won over 2M 4F or further
• Won a graded chase
• Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase
• Second or third season chaser
• Officially rated 150+
• Finished in the first 2 in the Lexus, Hennessy or Powers Gold Cup
• Last run in Ladbrokes.com, Poplar Square, Clonmel Oil or JNWine Champion Chase

 Bob