The Lough Derg Long Walk Hurdle, which takes place at Ascot on Saturday 17th December at , is a grade 1 hurdle run over 3M 1F and is one of the main pointers to the World Hurdle at Cheltenham in March. The race has been won by some of the best stayers of the past decade including Baracouda, Mighty Man and My Way De Solzen and Big Buck’s, who is looking for a hat-trick of wins in the race. The last 2 renewals were both called off at Ascot and moved to Newbury over Christmas.
Below we take a look at the trends for the last 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-1-3
5yo: 2-2-15
6yo: 3-6-24
7yo: 2-2-8
8yo: 1-2-12
9yo: 1-1-5
10yo+: 1-2-8
7 of 10 winners (last 6) have been aged 5 to 7 (2 exceptions were Baracouda winning for 3rd and 4th times at ages 8 & 9)
Gender
Mares (0-1-5) have failed to win this race since it became a grade 1 in 1990, with just 1 of 5 representatives making the frame in the past 10 runnings.
Breeding
French bred: 9-7-28
GB bred: 1-4-26
Irish bred: 0-4-16
Other: 0-1-5
9 of 10 winners (last 8) were French bred
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (6 won)
9 of 10 winners had 1 previous run that season
10 of 10 winners had run in the last 40 days
7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle (3 exceptions won a hurdle worth 10K+)
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 5F or further
8 of 10 winners were officially rated 155 or higher (2 exceptions rated 142+)
Other Races
Previous year's winner (Big Buck's): 123161 (3-1-6)
Long Distance Hurdle winner (Big Buck's): 511F211 (4-1-7)
World Hurdle winner (Big Buck's): 21F11 (3-1-5)
Liverpool Hurdle winner (Big Buck's): 31411 (3-0-5)
National Spirit Hurdle winner (Celestial Halo): 16F (1-0-3)
Betfair.com/paulnicholls Fixed Brush H'cap Hurdle winner (Dynaste): 3 (0-1-1)
Rendlesham Hurdle winner (Cross Kennon): 23 (0-1-2)
West Yorkshire Hurdle winner (Restless Harry): PF8355 (0-0-6)
8 of 10 winners ran in the World Hurdle that year, finishing 18123911
5 of 10 winners ran in the Long Distance Hurdle last time, finishing 31111
4 of 10 winners ran in the Liverpool Hurdle, finishing 1411
3 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Hurdle last time, finishing 123
3 of 10 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle, finishing 241
6 of 10 winners had previously finished 1st or 2nd in the race
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (2-2-6) has won the race with Big Buck’s for past 2 years.
Nicky Henderson (1-2-5) and David Pipe (1-2-5) have both saddled a winner and 2 places finishers in past 10 years.
Both Irish-trained runners (0-2-2) to run in this in the past decade have been placed.
Price
7 of 10 winners were sent off favourite
The favourite (7-3-11) has won 7 of last 10 & shows a level stakes profit of 2.68.
Conclusion:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- French Bred gelding
- Aged 5 to 7
- Finished in first 3 in Long Distance or Ascot Hurdle last time
- Ran in the past 40 days
- Won a Grade 1 or 2 Hurdle
- Won over 2M 5F+
- Officially rated 155+
- Finished in first 4 in World and/or Liverpool Hurdle
- Previously finished in the first two in this race
- Trained by Nicky Henderson or Paul Nicholls
- Favourite have a great record in this race
it would be fantastic if Dynaste could repeat its success of its last run acceleration off a really fast pace marks this as a really good animal and he will lead a come and catch me race that will ensure this to be a good fast run race - staying will be the name of the game.
With Big Bucks only chink being right handed race today and probably the best animal in training going for its 14th win on the trot the stats say he will not be beaten. He does look so good the race is one to savour rather than get involved in.
Mares have a poor record for getting into the frame but the one that did was on heavy ground (just for their weight allowance) - Sparky May is a soft ground winner at Ascot and was looking the best animal in the race last time at Newbury (was well backed just before the race) until flattening out at the bend - that was first run of the year and has no bounce factor ruining her chances today. Restless Harry back to hdles will relish the ground and the complete outsider with chances is Cross Kennon who will stay all day on this ground - has done well in a class 1 hdles - so am in the place market these three just to be in the race am backing them for small stakes 80 -20 place win.
Bob
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