There are 8 runners declared for the king George - lets hope they all go to post for some cracking each way bets - St Stephens Day or Boxing Day, depending on which side of the Irish Sea you reside, is the busiest race day of the year, and the William Hill King George VI Chase at Kempton is the big race of the day. It has been won by many of the greatest steeplechasers in the history of NH racing and in the last decade champions such as Best Mate, Kicking King and Kauto Star have taken it. Last year Long Run denied Kauto Star a fifth straight success in the race before going on to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup and he will be attempting to win the race again this year.
Age (for age stats we'll assume last season’s race was run in 2010)
5yo: 1-0-2
6yo: 2-4-13
7yo: 3-6-19
8yo: 1-3-28
9yo: 2-2-19
10yo: 0-4-10
11+: 1-0-9
Horses aged 5 to 7 have a combined record of 6-10-34.
Compare that to horses aged 8 or older (4-9-65).
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners won on last completed start (2 exceptions placed)
9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days
10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 times that season (only Long Run !)
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (1 of the 2 exception was runner-up in a grade 1 on only previous start over 3M+) that cuts it down it a bit includes kauto Star Long Run Nacarat and Diamond Harry))
9 of 10 winners had run in 8 to 22 chases (Excludes Diamond Harry and captain Chris)
10 of 10 winners had won 2 or more grade 1 chases
7 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd over this CD (excludes Golan Way)
Other Races
Previous year's winner (Long Run): 44011113 (4-1-8)
Cheltenham Gold Cup winner (Long Run): 1111 (4-0-4)
Betfair Chase winner (Kauto Star): P1171 (3-0-5)
John Durkan Chase winner: 151 (2-0-3)
Peterborough Chase winner: 14334P (1-2-6)
Aintree Bowl winner (Nacarat): 443P3P2 (0-2-7)
Melling Chase winner (Master Minded): 653P (0-1-4)
Pendil Novice Chase winner (Captain Chris): PP (0-0-2)
6 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's race, finishing 221111
5 of 10 winners (5 of last 6) ran in Betfair Chase, finishing 311U1
3 of 10 winners ran in the JNWine Champion Chase, finishing 321
2 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Gold Cup, finishing
9 of 10 winners (last 9) ran in a grade 1 chase at Cheltenham Festival
5 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 11121
2 of 2 second season chasers to win had placed in Arkle or RSA
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (4-2-12) has won the race four times with Kauto Star.
Henrietta Knight (2-3-10) has won this with Edredon Bleu and Best Mate in the past 10 years.
Nicky Henderson (1-5-11) saddled the first 2 home last season and has seen over half his 11 representatives make the frame.
Irish-trained runners (3-0-7) have produced 3 winners from 7 runners since 2001.
Price
7 of 10 favourites have won and backing favourites would have left you with a level stakes profit of 5.56.
Edredon Blue at 25/1 in 2003 has been only one winner to be sent off at odds greater than 8/1 in the past 10 years.
Conclusion:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 or 7
- Has run 1 to 3 times this season
- Won last time out in the past 40 days
- Won over 3M+
- Won 2 or more Grade 1 chases
- Previously finished 1st or 2nd over this CD
- Finished in first 2 in 2010 King George and/or Gold Cup
- Finished in first 3 in the Betfair Chase
- Trained by P Nicholls, N Henderson, Ms H Knight or in Ireland
- Favourite (priced no bigger than 8/1)
The picture of current betting is based on the ground remaining good and its predicted as such -
but last year saw panic and pandemonium as the weather tightened up and the race was
delayed until the 15 of January when the going on the day was back to g/soft ..and long Run won
by a very easy 12l --- Am interested in Captain Chris - on its breeding from kings Theatre it
should get the 3m+ it is a real athlete of a horse that Arches its back like best mate used to -
winner of the Arkle he looked like a 3mile chaser at the beginning of the race slow into stride -
but finished like very few I have seen up the cheltenham Hill - have waited in anticipation for its
first attempt at the distance is a gorgeous horse and will be taking the odds -
These days, the Arkle seems to be going to a horse thought to need further and perhaps the most impressive aspect of this win was his jumping, which many had worried about beforehand as he´d shown a tendency to jump right. Kept wide early, once Johnson realised the horse had his eye in he started firing him at his fences and he came up every time, being switched inside at the top of the hill, and the result looked inevitable once he more or less drew alongside the runner-up, who had already expended plenty of energy, at the first in the straight.
good luck in the selections which I am looking forwards to
Bob
4 comments:
I like Kauto Star at these odds, in last year"s Gold Cup Kauto Star was not in form properly to my view, the way the horse carried his head together with a unsuited racesetup ( Kauto had to run behind the leaders and was hindered to run his race and slowed down for the most part of the race until they arrived at the finish and Long Run has advantages in head to head finishes with a bit speed.Personal interpretation).
This year in Haydock I think Long Run wasnt top notch prepared, but I think the way Kauto Star dominated in a similar field size suits him and if he can make a similar race even a Top prepared Long Run will find again Kauto too good. The pace has to be fast and constant to beat Long Run. Captain Chris I have doubts only after his last race, i liked the Cheltenham race, but LTO I thought from the body language of the horse there was a bit struggle before Unseating Johnson, and has to prove against this class first, another problem I have is that Long Run and Kauto Star are two big athletic types long striding and Captain Chris seems to be athletic but no long strider so I think maybe uphill tracks like Cheltenham are more suiting than a flat track. All in All I think its between these three, but its tight and maybe I just bet Inrunning to see how the horses look in the betting ring.
well mate good luck to you with kauto Star - think its King George was last time - cannot have it at this age in a fight the younger animals will come to the fore
there wont be a dry eye in the house if it gets home in front on Sunday but it is a very poor price for a horse approaching 13 yr old.
Speaking on Saturday, clerk of the course Barney Clifford was pleased with ground as he said: "We had five millimetres of rain yesterday and the ground is good to soft, with the chase course good in places. The GoingStick is 6.8 on the chase course and 6.2 on the hurdles track.
"The outlook is cloudy, mild and with temperatures between four and twelve degrees. It should be perfect going for everyone by Monday."
The Age problem is another thing and youre right its too short for that. Its no betting race or something with a speculative thing like your selection, with a bit of value.
Here are my thoughts,
Long Run too short but likely, pace questionmarks
Kauto Star strong Walsh positive field size positive
Captain Chris distance ? horse size ?, pace positive
Master Minded distance ?
Somersby horse size doubts, but breeding positive for longer trip
Golan Way`s last race has something to me, it could have been a strong improvement and has horrendous odds, but still the factor that it will prob not last home, but the way the horse lasted home was impressive against a good horse with Bostons Angel.
The Haydock race was the best race this year so far, so the winner here should come out of this race again,is my personal feeling.
The Odds of 190+ of Golan Way are maybe an intelligent punt with the view to trade out under 100 and enjoy the race after.
Golan Way falls within the age group if not the experience for this race and is another horse who has aspirations my notes - "won all the way at cheltenham 131108 red bold 152 dsr2m novice hdle what a smashing run now 4 on the bounce
191208 really class race at ascot all horses must be noted 2miles g/sft btn by Medermit levels 35 dsr needs a greater test of stamina like cheltenham
kempton 011110 chase looked big in paddock but went so well"
this is its best time of year this is its Gold Cup and i think the horse has bags of development and its refusal to start at Wincanton looks an odd blip rather than a dogepot made all in a grade 1 so the bet to lay at much shorter than 100 in running and you echo my thoughts exactly though my BTL will be closer to 20s with my main bet
you can really dig into this race on the lay angle
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