Tingle Creek Sandown 031211

This year its a real puzzle - you take the class horse Sizing Europe with a health warning in my book - he finished legless last time over too far and is too risky back to a fast 2miles - wishful thinking was considered to be a 2m4f horse and is really bussy animal that can play up badly in the prelims -- the youngest horse kauto Stone  has insufficient experience for me at this stage regardless of Nichols strike rate this race .
 Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners (last 9) finished in first 3 last time out

7 of 10 winners had previously run that season

7 of 10 winners had run in at least 10 chases (all 3 exceptions trained by Nicholls & became multiple winners of the race)

9 of 10 winners had won a chase by 19+L (exception won by 9L)

9 of 10 winners had previously won a Grade 1 chase (Kauto Star was the exception, he had not previously run in a Grade 1)

 Gauvain looks to be at the top of its game winning on the bridle in a class 2 last time and together with Cornas who is a soft ground winner here over 2miles look real value bets to me  neither are top class animals that for sure  but this could well be their queen mother chase days  in a race for small stakes that usually goes to the first few in the betting but today have too many iffs and buts at the top of the market - so its the each way route for me