Thursday 8 December 2011

Tomorrow racing!

Edgardo Sol runs tomorrow back to Cheltenham down to Class 3 and on favourite track on G-Firm should def suit, is available imo at 7,0 BSP so nice value early on.

Derham is on Board and gets the allowance aswell,

Uptothemark 6.4 for three places is aswell very value, raced LTO against Edgardo Sol a very decent race actually and has +12 against him and new jockey with Paddy Brennan, def very value to me these odds for three places.

Ballylegends has to be opposed at 9.8 BSP, I cannot see this 6 year old winning this, showed on a galloping track in Newbury nil in the finish, is with the leaders and has a very poor record on galloping, uphill tracks with a bit pace and testing conditions, won LTO in Chepstow, but this was run slow and even there he was flat out late against very poor opposition went home poorly for 1st. Speed Ratings suggest aswell, that it is overrated and this race has some progressive sorts and needs a horse that can stay late and not a leading flat out type on testing track.
Trainer and Jockey are also very poor in Cheltenham and this is a race with several 20%+ trainers and TJ O Brien has a 5% SR in Cheltenham compared to a 15% SR overall.



ThatllDoBoy is my NAP today, as Im very convinced LTO out perfromance was a very good one and real improvement, races today with the same days since run and I see still value at these odds here.

Cheers rade!

BAAAAD! DAY!


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