The Istabraq Festival Hurdle is the highlight of the fourth and final day of the Leopardstown Christmas Festival, Today 29th December at 1.55 A grade 1 hurdle, run over 2 miles, it attracts the top Irish hopes for the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle and has been won by the likes of Istabraq, Brave Inca, Sublimity and Hurricane Fly in the past 10 years.
Horses aged 4 to 6 have a combined record of 4-5-35.
Horses aged 7+ have a combined record of 6-5-24.
The only horse aged over 8 to ever win the race was the mighty Istabraq, who was winning it for the fourth time.
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on last completed hurdles start
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run in past 55 days
10 of 10 winners had run no more than 3 times over hurdles that season
10 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 on all hurdles starts that season
8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle (2 exceptions had won a grade 3)
9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 in a hurdle at Leopardstown before (exception was having first course start)
Other Races
Morgiana Hurdle winner (Thousand Stars): 5123812 (2-1-7)
WKD Hurdle winner (The Real Article): 12 (1-0-2)
Tipperary Hurdle winner (The Real Article): 42 (0-1-2)
Previous season's Deloitte Novice Hurdle winner (Oscars Well): 42 (0-1-2)
Galway Hurdle winner (Moon Dice): 5 (0-0-1)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Fighting Fifth last time, finishing 223
3 of 10 winners ran in the Hatton's Grace last time, finishing 311
6 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing F12211
5 of 10 winners ran in the Morgiana, finishing 23131
4 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Champion Hurdle, finishing 1221
4 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Hurdle, finishing FU11
4 of 10 winners ran in the Champion Hurdle, finishing 9314
4 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's race, finishing FF14
Trainers
Colm Murphy (2-2-4) has saddled Brave Inca to gain 2 wins and 2 places in this race in the past 10 years
Jessica Harrington (1-2-4) has gained a win and 2 seconds from her 4 runners since 2001.
Willie Mullins (1-0-3) won the race with Hurricane Fly last year and Dermot Weld (0-1-1) has seen his 2 representatives since 2000 both finish 2nd.
Price
8 of 10 winners (last 6) came from the first 3 in the betting
Only one winner went off bigger than 7/1 and that was Golden Cross, who won the race in 2003 at massive odds of 66/1.
The favourite (4-1-10) has an average record in this race having won 4 of the last 10 renewals and showing a level stakes loss of 2.87.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 7+
- Finished in the first 3 in a grade 1 last time out
- Ran no more than 3 times this season
- Finished in first 3 on all starts this season
- Won a grade 1 hurdle
- Previously finished 1st or 2nd over the course and distance
- Finished in first 3 in Fighting Fifth or Hatton’s Grace Hurdle last time
- Finished in first 3 in Morgiana, Irish and/or Punchestown Champion Hurdle
Well this is a fine race and no mistake hard to look beyond the stats for the winner and The favourite really though the filly Unaccompanied was the best of these on the flat and has a pull in the weights that makes her very attractive a bridle stayer with distance + on her side the Listed winner on the Flat who wasn't far off the best juvenile hurdlers last season, second to Zarkandar in the Triumph. Made the most of a good opportunity last time the combination of Wells and Towend record this track makes the ultimate appeal to me
I really like the record of Harrington in this race - she's no mug and has the rock of Gibralter bred Gimli's Rock entered as the complete outsider of the field - and the ground is forecast good - a very tuff animal with a 57% strike rate on this going on the flat from 8 runs --- she also has Oscars Well who is a very good animal indeed a stumble cost him dearly at Cheltenham and its run against Thousand Stars shows it has to find a few pounds today but a clear round he can win this
an exciting race - let me know what angle you have on it
Bob
3 comments:
Simply looking at the Head to Heads and ignoring trends, I would go for Moon Dice ( gambled fown 17.0-9.0).
Beat Real Article 6 lenghts easy and Gimlis Rck a long way, Real Article beat Oscar Wells 3,75 lenghts and Luska Lad 8 lenghts, Luska Lad beat Thousnad Stars 3 lenghts, so there is only Unaccompanied left with Moon Dice.
Moon Dice at 9,0+ still loks very solid to me considering the horse finished close up to the likes of Brampour...
well as head to heads go that's a fine selection backed it at chelt against Brampour and was decidedly unlucky Racing with a low head carriage, he had worked his way back into the picture when he was chopped for room on the outside on the run to the final flight, causing Tom Doyle to switch him right across to the inner. He ran on up the hill but the lost momentum probably cost him second place.I got out at the right time!
that was a handicap race though and today am happy to take you on with Oscar Wells !!!! (famous last words?)
Oscar ran a cracker but Unaccompanied was just a thrilling win - rode Ruby Walsh to sleep on the favvy make sure you note these three for cheltenham in march
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