Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 to 8
- Finished in the first 3 last time out in last 50 days
- Had run once or twice this season
- Won over 3M+
- Won a Grade 1 or 2 chase
- Ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup or RSA Chase in March
- Ran in Hennessy Gold Cup or Betfair Chase last time
- Course winner (or having first start here)
- Trained in Great Britain
- Priced 7/1 or shorter
The line up this year is pretty hot and to note - It has been won by some of the top chasers of the past 10 years including Denman, Best Mate and Beef Or Salmon. In recent years British-trained runners have held the call.
Note the fact that horse who have won in the past have won over 3m+ and this puts the favourite( Jnwine.com Champion Chase winner (Quito De La Roque): 112 (2-1-3) in with the favourites chance.
The fact that Synchronised Confirmed stayer over 3m5f soft ground bypassed the Chepstow National yesterday for this race is a puzzle as he would have had a major chance in that race beating yesterday second easily last year and trained in almost identical manner this time around.
Noland from Nichols yard is well over the winning age group for the race and not run for yonks has to have been targeted for this race
Joncol and Cooldine fought out the Irish Hennessy on soft ground and were beaten Comprehensively by Rubi Light last time over a very inadequate 2m4f - You have to say Light has to beat the trends for winners of this race needing to have won 3m+ but with the sort of round of jumping that one showed that day there are very few that can beat him in the pure jumping arena.
Take nothing away from any runner this race but the 3m+ plus animals should be there at the death with the joker in the pack Magnanimity who seems well over looked has run well in heavy ground after a layoff of 60 days but has not run for 297 days. He performed so well in the Rsa over 3miles on ground too firm for him and has not been out since.
Not a race to be going for a longshot with all 10 winners coming from first 4 in the betting.Favourites (4-2-11) have a fair record, having won 4 of the last 10 but showing a level stakes loss of 2.68.
My hopes are that Rubi Light can go on improving and prove its staying ability because it is a star in the making but for this race the favourite has the form in the book Quito De La Roque should win this race -
Bob
5 comments:
Tough race isn`t it?
No Bet race to me actually...
Quito De La Roque (too short premarket)
- I think that G-S suits him more, as last time out on Soft he lost ground in the middle against two Front Runners, G-S is good I think,that it can stay in contact during the middle part, similar to the Aintree race and then I really think the gradual upclimb could catch out Rubi Light,
Rubi Light
-seems to me on video a strong Front Runner that can hold this strong gallop, have a doubt that the uphill and the 6f+ could be too much in the end, but there is also a great possibility it will make such a strong lead, that he stays on, sometimes sloppy late in his jumping very akwardly also a negative
-Synchronised could be as you said the surprise, specially after I read your targeting subject, with this climb and the ground, is a bit gambled from early and is my 3rd one.
The others I cant have( also because of Head to Heads, Noland would be one but too old...
Was more of a sprint finish, then a real formmarker.
If Quito De La Roque drifts now heavily in the Gold Cup, but is still racing there, I think it would be value to back it Each Way. Today was more of a sprint finish and this doesnt suit. Real uphill in Chelt, strong pace and weakening horses and a place is possible in the Gold Cup.
Will prob drift now!
when Synchronised was up with the pace early he was up for it when he was making ground at the at the last bend you knew it was time to jump on he stay and stays and the gamble landed - would not have bypassed yesterdays national for this unless they knew he was on a going day for such a big prize -
Yeah! mate it was obvious! They didnt go very fast, Rubi Light went off stronger in races before and it was a bit to me that you need a speedy staying type when these three go head to head so bunched in the end. Not sure yet what to make out of it. Quito is a big bugger on the slow side and def wasnt suited to this, otherwise he gets outpaced when too fast, is a bit similar to Long Run, but Long Run is a more speedier stayer, that can also accelerate off a slow pace late.
I have to watch it again for sure this race to make my mind up.
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