The StanJames.com International Hurdle (formerly the Bula) is a grade 2 hurdle run over 2M 1F and it takes place at Cheltenham on Saturday, 10th December at 3.05 . In recent years the Greatwood Hurdle has been the key race in finding the winner of this. In 2008 the race was run at Ascot after being abandoned at Cheltenham.
From a trends perspective we'll focus on past 10 runnings at Cheltenham (2000 to 2010):
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 1-4-12
5yo: 5-2-18
6yo: 1-1-10
7yo: 2-4-14
8yo: 1-1-6
9yo: 0-1-6
10yo+: 0-0-6
As we can see the winners’ ages have varied in the past 10 runnings.
Horses aged 4 to 6 have a combined record of 7-7-40 which compares well to horses aged 7+ of 3-6-32.
The last 7 winners have been aged 4 to 7.
4 of the 5 horses aged 4 to make the frame had finished 1st or 2nd in a grade 1 at that year’s Cheltenham Festival.
Weight
Horses carrying 11-8: 2-4-26
Horses carrying 11-4: 7-5-21
Horses carrying 11-0: 1-4-24
7 of the last 10 winners carried 11-4. The last 2 winners to carry 11-8 were trained in Ireland.
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 runners had finished in first 3 in a graded hurdle last time
10 of 10 winners posted an MR of 150+ last time
8 of 10 winners had won a graded or listed hurdle (both exceptions were placed in a graded hurdle on their last start)
9 of 10 winners (last 8) had run in the last 30 days
7 of 10 winners were course and distance winners (1 exception had yet to run at the track, the other two had finished runner-up in either the Greatwood Hurdle or the Champion Hurdle)
10 of 10 winners had run in at least 6 hurdles races previously
10 of 10 winners were officially rated 148+
Other Races
Greatwood Hurdle winner (Brampour): 11111 (5-0-5)
Fighting Fifth winner (Overturn): 27 (0-1-2)
Ascot Hurdle winner (Overturn): 23 (0-1-2)
Future Champions Finale Juvenile Hurdle winner (Marsh Warbler): 6 (0-0-1)
Scottish Champion Hurdle winner (Sanctuaire): 5 (0-0-1)
6 of 10 winners ran in Greatwood Hurdle last time, finishing 111211
3 of 10 winners ran in the County Hurdle, finishing 100
2 of 10 winners ran in the Champion Hurdle, finishing 32
2 of 2 Irish-trained winners ran in Morgiana last time, finishing 23
2 of 10 winners ran in the Totesport Gold Trophy, finishing 12
6 of 10 winners ran at the Aintree National meeting (2 Aintree Hurdle, 2 Top Novice, 1 Anniversary and 1 Silver Cross H'cap Hurdle)
Relkeel who won the race in 1997, 98 & 99 was the last horse to win the race and run in it the following year. Menorah is attempting to win back to back renewals this season.
Trainers
Philip Hobbs (3-0-6) has saddled 3 of the last 10 winners of this race, all 3 of his winners came here on the back of winning the Greatwood.
Nicky Henderson (1-2-5) and Paul Nicholls (1-1-5) have each saddled the winner and a placed finisher in past 10 runnings.
Irish trained-runners (2-1-10) have gained 2 winners and 1 second from 10 runners. Both winners had finished in first 3 in the Morgiana on previous start.
Price
7 of 10 winners were sent off 7/1 or shorter
The favourite (6-1-11) has won 6 of the last 9 and shows a level stakes profit of 3.70 since 2000.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 4 to 7
- Finished in the first 3 in a graded hurdle in the past 30 days
- Posted at MR of 150+ last time out
- Had previously run at least 6 times over hurdles
- Officially rated 148+
- Carrying 11-4
- Won a listed or graded hurdle
- Course and distance winner
- Greatwood Hurdle winner
- Trained by Philip Hobbs, Nicky Henderson or Paul Nicholls
- Favourite does well
The Stats for Brampour are outstanding and have been picked up by the blog for its last 2 wins and it was smooth here last time over a bit shoter going away
Menorah back to hdles looks the Bees Knees was coming to win its chase race at Exeter before departing at the last - has a lot of the form stats and cannot be ignored - Overturn is a beaut but not sure hes in love with Cheltenham type track in a fast race like this -
Am holding some pennies for Clerks Choice who has to defy the stats for fitness have him in analyser as a horse that runs best fresh and a real bridle stayer who jumps like a cat out of good ground
good luck all - make those notes!
Bob
5 comments:
I'm reasonably confident Clerks Choice needs Good to Firm ground, so will hold fire. I'm also aware that Claisse routinely declares 'diplomatic ground' which is normally half a description faster than he says and sometimes a full description
I think anyone would be crazy not to back Branapour - made for this race!
Brampour, I don't care if he has won a Greatwood, he did it with a 7Ib claim he won't get in this race, and in beating Sanctuaire 8L's when in receipt of 8Ibs he wouldn't be guaranteed to repeat that result even. Menorah won last years Greatwood off top weight carrying 11.12 and beat Bothy a neck giving 25Ibs. Brampour has beaten the same horse 2.5L's giving 12Ibs.
Im begining to lean towards Clerks Choice as even though he looks to me like a class below this level, if everything falls right for him, and he's been trained for this (his Champion hurdle so the trainer says) he wouldn't be a forlorn hope at a price, but you'd have to take some e/w cover and hope one of the big three doesn't turn up or falls.
cannot see why you think Clerks Choice needs ground faster than good to be honest but agree its an each way selection - am staying with Menorah and Clerks for the rev forecast -
From going adjustments i've made, anyway i've played him in an e/w patent with Medermit & Robinson Collonges.
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