I wonder if its possible to delete races from the race library, because when I go into analysis of a runner and look into the race it ran and open it up in the race library it works well. The only problem I have is that there are then too many races there I would like to delete after Ive looked into it. Is that possible or does datafrom lack that feature? Would be very convenient, being able to choose freely to delete races.
Cheers rade!
Wednesday, 30 November 2011
WHO WON THE NAPS COMP ?
Tipster Wins Runs Strike LSP POE benucci 6 20 30% +31.77 +159% Geoffrey 8 25 32% +20.17 +81% JohnC 3 28 11% +17.00 +61% roberttaylor03 1 8 13% +13.00 +163%
WILL LET YOU KNOW IF ANYONE PUTS UP SOME 33/1 SHOT TO BEAT YOU
Well Done RADE!
WILL LET YOU KNOW IF ANYONE PUTS UP SOME 33/1 SHOT TO BEAT YOU
Well Done RADE!
Who won the dataform tipster comp?
Hey guys,
My dataform subscription ran out on 28th November, so I am not able to follow the Nap Comp,
Can anybody tell me whats the final score? I just accept if you both Martyn or Bob, overtook me ;)
Cheers rade!
My dataform subscription ran out on 28th November, so I am not able to follow the Nap Comp,
Can anybody tell me whats the final score? I just accept if you both Martyn or Bob, overtook me ;)
Cheers rade!
Three good people who put detail into their analysis
My favourite is minervaracing.com blog, but he goes for big races and does not make analysis everyday, what I really like though is he put a great deal in his work, he even makes fence to fence sectionals of good meetings like Newbury or Ascot and spots horses, that scored for example a great time in a Novice or Maiden of that day or show great potential from the sectionals, he knows a great deal about horses and his work found for example unexposed horses like Edgardo Sol,Sonofvic or he say he wants to oppose Grand Crus in a strong run G1 next time very interesting point he makes with his sectional analysis.
http://www.minervaracing.com/
Here is a guy called Monty in the Punterslounge Forum, who has his thread with explanations of his his tips and has a 265pts profit since started.
http://forum.punterslounge.com/f13/montes-specialisation-sanity-maintained-265pts-104152/
Another guy in this forum called rupert,pretty good analysis.
http://forum.punterslounge.com/f13/ruperts-racing-thread-118448/
http://www.minervaracing.com/
Here is a guy called Monty in the Punterslounge Forum, who has his thread with explanations of his his tips and has a 265pts profit since started.
http://forum.punterslounge.com/f13/montes-specialisation-sanity-maintained-265pts-104152/
Another guy in this forum called rupert,pretty good analysis.
http://forum.punterslounge.com/f13/ruperts-racing-thread-118448/
Tuesday, 29 November 2011
Tuesday Bets
| ||||||
| ||||||
| ||||||
|
Tuesday 29th November 2011
Good posting Matt its really what we have been saying for a while now without anyone from the game such as Sir Henry Cecil coming into the ring and saying it out loud.
I am not sure that any flat bred who hasn't got a duel sire such as Flemensfirth who has very high-class 10-12f runner, dual-purpose sire, and top NH sire should ever be a positive flat bred worthy of a big bet until its proved its a freak - any line up in major NH races you have to look at the sire, has to be based on stamina, and the conformation to jump - You can see this when bumpers include flat breeds winning but never go on once they have to take the rigours of jumping - they cannot adapt their frame no matter - that's a fact of life. Watching bumpers and seeing a flat bred win from a Nh bred second you can see there is more potential once they go over the sticks.
Todays racing is a bit of a nightmare - AYR has been abandoned because of waterlogged ground
LINGFIELD
I am not sure that any flat bred who hasn't got a duel sire such as Flemensfirth who has very high-class 10-12f runner, dual-purpose sire, and top NH sire should ever be a positive flat bred worthy of a big bet until its proved its a freak - any line up in major NH races you have to look at the sire, has to be based on stamina, and the conformation to jump - You can see this when bumpers include flat breeds winning but never go on once they have to take the rigours of jumping - they cannot adapt their frame no matter - that's a fact of life. Watching bumpers and seeing a flat bred win from a Nh bred second you can see there is more potential once they go over the sticks.
Todays racing is a bit of a nightmare - AYR has been abandoned because of waterlogged ground
LINGFIELD
GOING: STANDARD WEATHER (Light rain) STALLS 5f & 1m - Outside; Remainder - Inside
GOING: GOOD (Good to firm in places; GoingStick 8.6) (Fences are 7yds inside with the Golf Club bend 5yds inside and the bend into the home straight 5yds outside the line raced on the 7th November) WEATHER (Windy, light rain)
The chances of a punt or Naps table success will not be helped by the weather conditions or the low prize money offered so anything will have to be largely market and ground dependant which means last minute selections as far as I am concerned
Bob
More Trouble For Racing?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/wondermonkey/2011/11/bred-to-destruction.shtml
Earlier this year I noted Sir Henry Cecil saying that he felt that the breed wasn't progressing, and probably regressing.
Although it's difficult to prove that a specific fracture event is due to inbreeding, there's no doubt that breeding racehorses involves selection for an improved power/weight ratio.
This leads to bigger muscles and lighter bones. It's a bit like a F1 racing car which has a huge engine and an ultra-light body. Or if you selectively bred cyclists capable of winning the TDF, you'd end up with a breed of light boned ectomorphs like Contador or the Schlecks.
Obviously there comes a point in the selective breeding process at which the bones of certain individuals become so light and fragile that an unexpected stress event causes catastrophic fracture.
That's why I get concerned when I see racy flat-bred types put over hurdles, or worse still, fences.
Breeding good jumpers takes a long time and requires an enormous amount of patience, because by and large, you can't start racing them until they are at least four or five years old. And even if they do turn out to be winners, you don't have the prospect of a lucrative breeding career, except of course in the case of a good mare.
Matt
Earlier this year I noted Sir Henry Cecil saying that he felt that the breed wasn't progressing, and probably regressing.
Although it's difficult to prove that a specific fracture event is due to inbreeding, there's no doubt that breeding racehorses involves selection for an improved power/weight ratio.
This leads to bigger muscles and lighter bones. It's a bit like a F1 racing car which has a huge engine and an ultra-light body. Or if you selectively bred cyclists capable of winning the TDF, you'd end up with a breed of light boned ectomorphs like Contador or the Schlecks.
Obviously there comes a point in the selective breeding process at which the bones of certain individuals become so light and fragile that an unexpected stress event causes catastrophic fracture.
That's why I get concerned when I see racy flat-bred types put over hurdles, or worse still, fences.
Breeding good jumpers takes a long time and requires an enormous amount of patience, because by and large, you can't start racing them until they are at least four or five years old. And even if they do turn out to be winners, you don't have the prospect of a lucrative breeding career, except of course in the case of a good mare.
Matt
in the 2.20 Southwell Class 5 3m Chase Totally wrong price here. Won LTO in a ultra donkey race run slow, there were really no contenders.Gets heavy penalty here and faces for example 2nd fav Hever Road, which LTO perfromance I rate much higher, i watched also several videos of both on the same track and French Ties is a very nervous horse on the rear so great possibility to trade out early and really just won when the race was a walk until the line. Ran in Southwell and fell so its really not reflecting in any way the chances in my view.
Monday, 28 November 2011
Wolverhampton 1650
I like the claims of Lady Heartbeat here, she is a full sister to Monsieur Pontaven who picked up a win on Saturday evening around this course, and is a half-sister to Indian Trail among other winners. Given the family have largely been sprinting types, I guess it is slightly surprising the daughter of Avonbridge appeared short of speed in her three maiden runs, but there is a modicum of stamina on the distaff side, and there was certainly a lot to like about the way she ran at Kempton, when stepped up to a mile, far more so than the post race comments gave her credit for (a race that didn't clock bad figures for the grade by the way). She travelled really well throughout that race, getting no room at a crucial stage, but did then quicken up promisingly and although her jockey gave up inside the final hundred yards, when having no chance of making the frame and again short of room, it's worth noting the filly remained full of running.
This race is a bit stronger, but given the record of Avonbridge on this surface, don't be surprised if she steps up again and having been handed a good draw, not to mention dropped a pound from Kempton, I'm expecting her to go close this afternoon. She should find matters suitably contested regards pace, and is in receipt of eleven pounds from the market leader, so while her price has been trimmed a couple of points since the book opened, 7/1 still has a bit of juice in it, not forgetting she may well go back out on course.
This race is a bit stronger, but given the record of Avonbridge on this surface, don't be surprised if she steps up again and having been handed a good draw, not to mention dropped a pound from Kempton, I'm expecting her to go close this afternoon. She should find matters suitably contested regards pace, and is in receipt of eleven pounds from the market leader, so while her price has been trimmed a couple of points since the book opened, 7/1 still has a bit of juice in it, not forgetting she may well go back out on course.
BUMPER AT FOLKSTONE 281111
Not a bad lil punting race Golden Firebird won the mares bumper at cheltenham beating
Flat Cap Thursday by 4l or more and has to heft 7lbs more today - watching that race you have to say Golden Firebird had plenty in hand to beat Flat cap but that one really did not have much of a clue till late on.
Was impressed with Flat cap run in the bumper (against the boys) at Towcester where she was too slow away and gave them too much of a start in quite a decent run race - despite that tardy start she picked up the bit and finished with a rattle is an improving profile and this claimer today has a 10% strike rate on right handed tracks and bumpers with a very handy extra 5lbs allowance
is my only other bet today
Bob
Nap today at ffos lass 2.20
Really waited for the return of Song Sung Blue under Joe Tizzard and he has its ground sticky and heavy and will stay forever - True has not run for the proverbial Yonks but will do for me Red Rouble gets in well but for me it has to be song Sung Blue will make his usual couple of mistakes but with the yard going so well hope of a big shout around the 6/1 mark -- good luck with the naps today lads I particularly will be on martins at Wolverhampton!
Bob
Bob
Monday 281111
Back for a punt today - see there have been some sneaky long priced winners in the naps table including the 20/1 shot by the Martin (well called mate) Colin at 14/1 and Geoffrey at 10/1 (another near miss from JohnC at 16/1 really does make the month a good one for the Vfb with some cracking bets and selections - its not over yet and have three days left - Rade still heading the table but has some decent tipsters hunting him up -- all to play for
FOLKESTONE
FOLKESTONE
GOING: Hurdle course - GOOD (Good to firm in places); Chase course - GOOD TO FIRM (GoingStick: Chase 9.6, Hurdle 8.5) (Hurdle home bend moved out onto fresh ground) WEATHER (White cloud)
GOING: STANDARD WEATHER (Sunny intervals)
STALLS 7f - Outside; Remainder - Inside
GOING: SOFT (Heavy in places; GoingStick: 6.9) WEATHER (White cloud)
Hennessy revisited 281111
hi guys - some best went astray with the ground remaining good thought that Great Endeavour ran a blinder and looked a solid bet - Fair Along will def be showing up in distance chasers - looked a real sod at the start and that first fence howler cooked it and sulked but will be a force for distance races this term.
The horse I take out of the race is Beshabar was having his first outing since landing the Scottish National in April and was 4lb higher. He posted a cracking effort and was running on again late in the day after getting outpaced in the home straight. He was later found to be lame on his left fore. Providing connections can preserve his mark he appeals a leading player for the Grand National, as marathon trips do look made for him. He was cut into 14-1 ante-post market leader with some firms.
Bob
The horse I take out of the race is Beshabar was having his first outing since landing the Scottish National in April and was 4lb higher. He posted a cracking effort and was running on again late in the day after getting outpaced in the home straight. He was later found to be lame on his left fore. Providing connections can preserve his mark he appeals a leading player for the Grand National, as marathon trips do look made for him. He was cut into 14-1 ante-post market leader with some firms.
Bob
2nd season chasers
There's a lot of talk about 2nd season chasers this year; an example was the poor performance(s) in this years Hennessey (which is usually won by a second season chaser). The answer is obvious - they just aren't any good! Let's look at last years top novices: Wishfful Thinking, Time for Rupert, Medermit - none have come out and shown anything! Bearing this in mind, IMO, when Bob publishes his trends and second season chasers are recommended, I would ignore this fact. It's not Bob's fault, just that last years novices aren't as good as we hoped.
Monday Bets
| ||||||
| ||||||
|
Sunday, 27 November 2011
Sunday Bets!
Two bets today for me today.
Prince De Beauchene in Navan 14.20.
Won against very good animals Categorical, Reve De Sivola, Hey Big Spender, Besalem, Great Endeavour back in Spring in his last race. Changed to the Mullins Stable and Mullins First time out runner havae a great record.
Glenwood Knight in Carlisle 2.25
Fell two last starts on hard fences today back to easy fences and uphill runin. His last run impressed me when fell late against Airteen Thirteen a way higher rated animal.
Glenwood Knight actually an unexposed horse, that if gets a run can win here. Has a long layoff so I will only bet when there is good support in the last minutes.
Prince De Beauchene in Navan 14.20.
Won against very good animals Categorical, Reve De Sivola, Hey Big Spender, Besalem, Great Endeavour back in Spring in his last race. Changed to the Mullins Stable and Mullins First time out runner havae a great record.
Glenwood Knight in Carlisle 2.25
Fell two last starts on hard fences today back to easy fences and uphill runin. His last run impressed me when fell late against Airteen Thirteen a way higher rated animal.
Glenwood Knight actually an unexposed horse, that if gets a run can win here. Has a long layoff so I will only bet when there is good support in the last minutes.
Something to remember
In 90% of all races, the winner has an aPR of >-6 ... just a reminder. Lat>ALL also has a high percentage - wherever and on whatever surface.
Saturday, 26 November 2011
Apart from the Hennessey, here are my bets:
| ||||||
| ||||||
| ||||||
|
Bets 26.11.2011
Newbury 13.20 3m2f Hcp Chase Ch3
Double Dizzy at odds of 10+ here is very overpriced in my eyes. LTO run in a Cheltenham Ch2 race over 3m7f against very classy animals included Garde Champetre and Uncle Junior both rated 140+. The race was run at a very good pace and Double Dizzy just struggled in the end. Today over lower distance against weaker opposition and against mainly 130 rated runners, makes this horse my shot. Ialso like Battlecry here as a chance from the front looked also very decetn last time out and should have a chance as a frontrunner.
I also have a Lay at 3.4 for Horsham Lad, set a Back Inrunning 4.0+because I think its too short and I see a chance of Horsham Lad getting outpaced early, when Battlecry goes on with Double Dizzy and a good chance of trading out at higher odds.
BOOM! Horsham Lad traded put successfully and had Battlecry aswell traded out.
13.30 Newbury 2m6f Ch3
Made in Time 10 .5 BSP 3.7 PSP
LTO first time over fences beat Rio Gael 153 Dhcp rated runner with 16 lenghts.
Ran in March in a Bumper in Newbury having a close 2nd to Al Ferof a 142+ DHCP rated runner, who won a 13k Novice Chase Class1 last time out.
Starts today on an official 139 mark which the horse can get here.
Travelled nicely but unseated :(
Newbury 2.05 2m HH1
Rumble of Thunder ( IRE) 19.5 BSP 4.9 PSP is a nice horse here, won three times in a row on Hurdles but still has such a high odds. Is really a cracking price considering it beat LTO Dance for Julie a horse with DHcp of 148 and before hacked up in a HH1L in Market Rasen beating several good animals. Is running held up and striking late and showed it against good animals.
Rock on Ruby (IRE) 7.2 BSP PSP ? also is a classy horse to me in this line up to me. Showed LTO very nice perfromance in Aintree HH1 2m4f simply loosing against a class act Spirit Son which was another dimension and finsihed close to Cue Card. Hit the last and today has shorter trip which will suit. Has a long layoff, but has all the chances today when Walsh is booked. Horse has 2/2 on Walsh and is facing mainly runners today that didnt really prove at high level pace and class races what they are capable of. Favourite Empire Levant has to prove that first, same with Dream Function, a horse that won an ordinary Novice hurdles.
BOOM! Rock on Ruby easily 1st
15.45 Newbury 2m4f Ch2
I oppose Coup Royale here at 5.5 BSP. Didnt show anything special yet. LTO in rear and didnt convince in the finsih compared to Fistral Beach. Races today against much better opposition and back to Newbury has a long layoff, jockey booked that is 2nd choice for him and there are many Ch1 and Ch2 horses that can run a cracker sometimes.
I play very small stakes Quilinton a horse that has concentration problems but sometimes hacks up and has the ability in this Grade to win, when running close to his best. BSP 48
BOOM! Coup Royale never there unplaced
Double Dizzy at odds of 10+ here is very overpriced in my eyes. LTO run in a Cheltenham Ch2 race over 3m7f against very classy animals included Garde Champetre and Uncle Junior both rated 140+. The race was run at a very good pace and Double Dizzy just struggled in the end. Today over lower distance against weaker opposition and against mainly 130 rated runners, makes this horse my shot. Ialso like Battlecry here as a chance from the front looked also very decetn last time out and should have a chance as a frontrunner.
I also have a Lay at 3.4 for Horsham Lad, set a Back Inrunning 4.0+because I think its too short and I see a chance of Horsham Lad getting outpaced early, when Battlecry goes on with Double Dizzy and a good chance of trading out at higher odds.
BOOM! Horsham Lad traded put successfully and had Battlecry aswell traded out.
13.30 Newbury 2m6f Ch3
Made in Time 10 .5 BSP 3.7 PSP
LTO first time over fences beat Rio Gael 153 Dhcp rated runner with 16 lenghts.
Ran in March in a Bumper in Newbury having a close 2nd to Al Ferof a 142+ DHCP rated runner, who won a 13k Novice Chase Class1 last time out.
Starts today on an official 139 mark which the horse can get here.
Travelled nicely but unseated :(
Newbury 2.05 2m HH1
Rumble of Thunder ( IRE) 19.5 BSP 4.9 PSP is a nice horse here, won three times in a row on Hurdles but still has such a high odds. Is really a cracking price considering it beat LTO Dance for Julie a horse with DHcp of 148 and before hacked up in a HH1L in Market Rasen beating several good animals. Is running held up and striking late and showed it against good animals.
Rock on Ruby (IRE) 7.2 BSP PSP ? also is a classy horse to me in this line up to me. Showed LTO very nice perfromance in Aintree HH1 2m4f simply loosing against a class act Spirit Son which was another dimension and finsihed close to Cue Card. Hit the last and today has shorter trip which will suit. Has a long layoff, but has all the chances today when Walsh is booked. Horse has 2/2 on Walsh and is facing mainly runners today that didnt really prove at high level pace and class races what they are capable of. Favourite Empire Levant has to prove that first, same with Dream Function, a horse that won an ordinary Novice hurdles.
BOOM! Rock on Ruby easily 1st
15.45 Newbury 2m4f Ch2
I oppose Coup Royale here at 5.5 BSP. Didnt show anything special yet. LTO in rear and didnt convince in the finsih compared to Fistral Beach. Races today against much better opposition and back to Newbury has a long layoff, jockey booked that is 2nd choice for him and there are many Ch1 and Ch2 horses that can run a cracker sometimes.
I play very small stakes Quilinton a horse that has concentration problems but sometimes hacks up and has the ability in this Grade to win, when running close to his best. BSP 48
BOOM! Coup Royale never there unplaced
Friday, 25 November 2011
Hennessy Gold Cup Chase!
So now comes my analysis for the Hennessy Gold Cup as promised. First of All I wanna say that this years renewal is much weaker than last year contest. For this prove I have taken a screenshot of lasts year race.
As you can see the general level of Bspeed and Bhcp was much better last year....
Selection 1:
My first selection is Great Endeavour win here 7.8 BSP. The reason for this is its last run in Cheltenham on 12/11/11 14 days ago. What appeals to me in Great Endavour that he won LTO a race in amazing style, that was firstly run at an immense pace and with decent animals, that come much more close to the level of lasts year Hennessy. To understand the logic about my reasoning I have put up a dataform screenshot of the LTO race in Cheltenham and a video how strong the horse was actually. From the screenshot, you can see that it was a very strong field and on the video you can see that it was one of the fastest run races this year. There is doubt, that Great Endeavour stays the distance and track suitability also there is doubt about freshness, but to me LTO performance was too strong, that Im willing to take in the risk of that. Another plus is that its a horse that races with the leader and still runs on strongly.
Video Cheltenham run:
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,468263_3,00.html
BOOM! Finished 4th but was leading in the last 50 metres down to 2.0 Inrunning and totally broke down and weakened rapidly, I hedged out at 2.22 Inrunning.
Selection 2:
My 2nd selection is Carruthers Win and Place 21 BSP 5.3 PSP with the intention to trade out win around 6.0 mark and letting the place stay.
Carruthers is way to overpriced here in my eyes. The horse ran last year in the same contest which were much better animals and has today an immense advantage in the weights.
I have to say its a bit of a dodgepots in the last furlong but proved ability in much better company to race most of the race pretty decent and there comes the weight into play I can imagine this time a place and a really good run, as its a weaker Hennessy and Carruther came back LTO very nice over 3m3f in Cheltenham and raced a really good race upto 3m2f there.
Last race the horse carried 11-07 weight upthe hill and weakened in the last furlong pretty heavily and ran a cracker upto then.Considering the weight and the horse it lost against I highly rate this performance and if the horse gets a run today from the front again, which is likely there is a big chance that it will trade very low early, as the horse can press very hard and contain that speed. I have made a sreenshot of lasts race and added a video of that race plus the race from last years Gold Cup. The jumping of Carruthers seems to be improved aswell. Carries today 10-04 and races against poorer opposition then general. I see value in this, as punters see that it races 6th last year but it wasnt that bad actually. Another thing that strucks me is that LTO was after a long layoff and the horse never started in such a top form after a long break.
Video last run Cheltenham:
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,470285_3,00.html
Video last year Hennessy Gold Cup
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,407962_3,00.html
BOOM! Leading all the way and hacked up nicely, I traded out at 4.6 for the win though and got my place fully matched let it stay.
Selection 3:
Sarando BSP 18 and 4.0 PSP appeals to me as this horse is unexposed 6 year old and fits into the statistics and showed already in Aintree under similiar conditions with improving young upcoming horses under a fast gallop a real finish against Quito De La Roque ( My Cheltenham Gold Cup favourite). The race was truly run, because there was Golans Way who raced recently in Cheltenham making as Front Runner a heavy pace. This race is a good form measure as it was truly run.
Franked that form in Carlisle and is my 3rd chance here, as has similar to Great Endeavour an amazing finish. I hav added a video from his Aintree run.
Video Aintree run:
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,425874_3,00.html
Sarando was sad, that he fell, because he travelled nicely from the front and this race wasnt as fast pace then usual in my eyes, he would have had a great chance in my eyes in the closing stages.
Good Luck to all!
As you can see the general level of Bspeed and Bhcp was much better last year....
Selection 1:
My first selection is Great Endeavour win here 7.8 BSP. The reason for this is its last run in Cheltenham on 12/11/11 14 days ago. What appeals to me in Great Endavour that he won LTO a race in amazing style, that was firstly run at an immense pace and with decent animals, that come much more close to the level of lasts year Hennessy. To understand the logic about my reasoning I have put up a dataform screenshot of the LTO race in Cheltenham and a video how strong the horse was actually. From the screenshot, you can see that it was a very strong field and on the video you can see that it was one of the fastest run races this year. There is doubt, that Great Endeavour stays the distance and track suitability also there is doubt about freshness, but to me LTO performance was too strong, that Im willing to take in the risk of that. Another plus is that its a horse that races with the leader and still runs on strongly.
Video Cheltenham run:
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,468263_3,00.html
BOOM! Finished 4th but was leading in the last 50 metres down to 2.0 Inrunning and totally broke down and weakened rapidly, I hedged out at 2.22 Inrunning.
Selection 2:
My 2nd selection is Carruthers Win and Place 21 BSP 5.3 PSP with the intention to trade out win around 6.0 mark and letting the place stay.
Carruthers is way to overpriced here in my eyes. The horse ran last year in the same contest which were much better animals and has today an immense advantage in the weights.
I have to say its a bit of a dodgepots in the last furlong but proved ability in much better company to race most of the race pretty decent and there comes the weight into play I can imagine this time a place and a really good run, as its a weaker Hennessy and Carruther came back LTO very nice over 3m3f in Cheltenham and raced a really good race upto 3m2f there.
Last race the horse carried 11-07 weight upthe hill and weakened in the last furlong pretty heavily and ran a cracker upto then.Considering the weight and the horse it lost against I highly rate this performance and if the horse gets a run today from the front again, which is likely there is a big chance that it will trade very low early, as the horse can press very hard and contain that speed. I have made a sreenshot of lasts race and added a video of that race plus the race from last years Gold Cup. The jumping of Carruthers seems to be improved aswell. Carries today 10-04 and races against poorer opposition then general. I see value in this, as punters see that it races 6th last year but it wasnt that bad actually. Another thing that strucks me is that LTO was after a long layoff and the horse never started in such a top form after a long break.
Video last run Cheltenham:
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,470285_3,00.html
Video last year Hennessy Gold Cup
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,407962_3,00.html
BOOM! Leading all the way and hacked up nicely, I traded out at 4.6 for the win though and got my place fully matched let it stay.
Selection 3:
Sarando BSP 18 and 4.0 PSP appeals to me as this horse is unexposed 6 year old and fits into the statistics and showed already in Aintree under similiar conditions with improving young upcoming horses under a fast gallop a real finish against Quito De La Roque ( My Cheltenham Gold Cup favourite). The race was truly run, because there was Golans Way who raced recently in Cheltenham making as Front Runner a heavy pace. This race is a good form measure as it was truly run.
Franked that form in Carlisle and is my 3rd chance here, as has similar to Great Endeavour an amazing finish. I hav added a video from his Aintree run.
Video Aintree run:
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,425874_3,00.html
Sarando was sad, that he fell, because he travelled nicely from the front and this race wasnt as fast pace then usual in my eyes, he would have had a great chance in my eyes in the closing stages.
Good Luck to all!
Am out the door one last Post for the blog till Sunday
Dont forget the Fighting Fith tomorrow at Doncaster - don't have time for full stats but
5yos have a very strong record in this race having won 6 of the last 10 runnings of this race (in 2 of the other 4 years they did not have a representative).
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 runners finished in the first 2 last time out
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle (exception The French Furze had finished 2nd in previous 3 renewals)
7 of 10 winners had previously run in 4 to 11 hurdles
8 of 10 winners were 2nd or 3rd season hurdlers
5 of 5 season hurdler winners had won a class 1 hurdle at Aintree or Cheltenham Festivals that year
7 of 10 winners (last 5) were officially rated 150+ over hurdles
7 of 10 winners finished in first 5 in a graded hurdle at Cheltenham Festival (3 exceptions missed Cheltenham that year)
5 of last 7 winners contested a 2M grade 1 at that year’s Punchestown Festival (other 2 had won a grade 1 novice hurdle at Cheltenham)
Price
6 of 10 winners were sent off favourite
This is a good race for the favourite (6-3-11) who shows a level stakes profit of 2.15. Binocular in the past 2 renewals has been the only unplaced favourite in the race in the past 15 years.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 5
- Finished in the first 2 last time out
- Previously won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
- Second or third season hurdler
- Officially rated 150+
- Finished in first 5 in a grade 1 at Punchestown Festival or
- Won at Cheltenham Festival
- Trained by Nicky Henderson or Donald McCain
- Sent off favourite
good luck all
Bob
Not great racing today
I went through the cards last night and to be honest, I can't find a decent bet for this afternoons racing, although I have a couple on the all weather at Wolverhampton this evening.
Can you do me a favour?
Hi Guys Can I ask for a volunteer (Martin would be good for this if your up for it mate) - but perhaps you can decide one of you will ? To post a screen shot of the Hennessey for g/soft ground as I may be able to get onto the blog on Saturday morning but not onto my Vfb
I would really appreciate the following headings
Trainer Course --- Dsr -CDG -Goi- Imp -Dvo---Bds -Cfe -Cod-- Cgl - C- Cr - All
if you would set to see the maximum for Cgl that would be even nicer of you.
Am of this morning by about 10.30 so will appreciate any feedback from you if you can
Bob
I would really appreciate the following headings
Trainer Course --- Dsr -CDG -Goi- Imp -Dvo---Bds -Cfe -Cod-- Cgl - C- Cr - All
if you would set to see the maximum for Cgl that would be even nicer of you.
Am of this morning by about 10.30 so will appreciate any feedback from you if you can
Bob
Thursday, 24 November 2011
Newbury 241111 1.35 Promised Wings
NEWBURY
GOING: Chase course - GOOD (Good to soft in places); Hurdle course - GOOD TO SOFT (GoingStick: Chs 6.6; Hdl 5.0) (Hurdle and Chase courses are set out very wide for the first day and rail will be moved inwards overnight for the three days of the meeting)
Unfortunately yet again I am unable to do other than watch tonight on the replays
1.35 Newbury and a horse that attracts in this novice hurdle (and my nap table selection) is Promised Wings beaten a long way when it came to the track last year on good ground was more about raw hurdles blunders In rear but in touch, ridden along from 6th, stayed on to take moderate 4th after 2 out (op 16-1) is one of my Analyser animals now -"041111 Fontwell just not get there Promised wings for me in this next one -- improver and they will know how to ride it today Promising Wings was 5lb ahead of the handicapper after his improved second in a handicap over C&D last week, so it wasn´t surprising to see him out again quickly. He took it up in home straight and was the one to beat jumping the last, but he made a mess of it. Looking at the way he rallied that probably cost him."
I think they have him ready to do himself justice today over this trip with the longer run in and greater distance
good luck guys
Bob
Todays racing!
2.45 Newbury 2m6f Good Good to Soft in places Chase 3
Vieno Griego win and place13 Bsp and 4.4 PSP is to me nice value in this race at this mark.
29/01/2011 Cheltenham 2m5f Chase 2 13k Good to Soft
2nd beaten 2 lenghth to The Giant Bolster Off 140 and coming back to Newbury today where there was the horses third Chase run over this distance finsihing 3rd and there was first improvement seen.Vieno Griego made several mistakes and could have won.
15/03/2011 entered in a Class 1 Chase in Cheltenham and the horse bettered the form finishing 4th on one level with Quantitative Easing and Divers both finished close to Great Endavour in the Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase on 12/11/11 wit a D Hcp of 150+.
Vieno Griego could have won this race here.
Today has a mark of 133 and back to favoured track and a decent days since run and with J E Moore who knows this horse good.
Watching the races beginning with the Newbury run there is steady improvement to see especially in the jumping. Had 3 errors against The Giant Bolster, which mad up maybe 3-5 lenghth, had jumps which made superb ground on the other side. The race in Class 1 on it jumped much better had one slight error and you could really see the ability to push forward in this horse, which was the only jockey error i think, that Moore went to drive out to early in this race and got caught online then. The Ground which is Good, Good to Soft in places is in the horses favour when its going to good. And def had its best run on Good Ground.
Newbury 13.35 2m5f Hcp Hurdle
Kingsmere Win and place 12.5BSP 3.7PSP (waiting to get matched Inrunning)
Resaon:
2nd S.H in a strong run 3m HH4 in Bangor travelling smoothly an pushing clear with Pie at Midnight. 2m5f will be better.
After send off as 7/2 favourite in a Class 3 Hcp Chase here in Newbury over 2m5f and stumbled on the first and got hampered pulled up.
Taking the Bangor form and ignoring the last race with in mind that it was sent off as fav in much better race in Class 3 last time with the lower fencs and over best distance I see this horse with great chances today. Has same jockey with Tinkler again like in Bangor.
Summary: Today was a bad day for the selections, i would have seen both actually how they perform but both fell or stumbled immideately and got Unseated. Also my worry with Bobs selection was a bit there, as the horse seemed to be outpaced in the race. Today we were both unlucky and hopefully soon there are more interesting horses to follow. All guys a good weekend with loads of racng action. Cheers rade!
Vieno Griego win and place13 Bsp and 4.4 PSP is to me nice value in this race at this mark.
29/01/2011 Cheltenham 2m5f Chase 2 13k Good to Soft
2nd beaten 2 lenghth to The Giant Bolster Off 140 and coming back to Newbury today where there was the horses third Chase run over this distance finsihing 3rd and there was first improvement seen.Vieno Griego made several mistakes and could have won.
15/03/2011 entered in a Class 1 Chase in Cheltenham and the horse bettered the form finishing 4th on one level with Quantitative Easing and Divers both finished close to Great Endavour in the Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase on 12/11/11 wit a D Hcp of 150+.
Vieno Griego could have won this race here.
Today has a mark of 133 and back to favoured track and a decent days since run and with J E Moore who knows this horse good.
Watching the races beginning with the Newbury run there is steady improvement to see especially in the jumping. Had 3 errors against The Giant Bolster, which mad up maybe 3-5 lenghth, had jumps which made superb ground on the other side. The race in Class 1 on it jumped much better had one slight error and you could really see the ability to push forward in this horse, which was the only jockey error i think, that Moore went to drive out to early in this race and got caught online then. The Ground which is Good, Good to Soft in places is in the horses favour when its going to good. And def had its best run on Good Ground.
Newbury 13.35 2m5f Hcp Hurdle
Kingsmere Win and place 12.5BSP 3.7PSP (waiting to get matched Inrunning)
Resaon:
2nd S.H in a strong run 3m HH4 in Bangor travelling smoothly an pushing clear with Pie at Midnight. 2m5f will be better.
After send off as 7/2 favourite in a Class 3 Hcp Chase here in Newbury over 2m5f and stumbled on the first and got hampered pulled up.
Taking the Bangor form and ignoring the last race with in mind that it was sent off as fav in much better race in Class 3 last time with the lower fencs and over best distance I see this horse with great chances today. Has same jockey with Tinkler again like in Bangor.
Summary: Today was a bad day for the selections, i would have seen both actually how they perform but both fell or stumbled immideately and got Unseated. Also my worry with Bobs selection was a bit there, as the horse seemed to be outpaced in the race. Today we were both unlucky and hopefully soon there are more interesting horses to follow. All guys a good weekend with loads of racng action. Cheers rade!
12.30 Newb and then more....
When Penelope Pips won her only bumper back in march (3 horse race that didn't suit her), I recall noting that she would make a fine chaser. After a break, and no doubt some good schooling by the shrewd Evan Williams, she is up against some decent enough novices here, but the price is tempting. A place bet at the very least methinks.
In the 3.40 Uttoxeter ex Irish gelding Purcells Bridge has it's debut Uk run - its 3rd at Punchestown 030511 was a good effort (the winner won 2/2 since) and has arguably the best form.
In the 3.40 Uttoxeter ex Irish gelding Purcells Bridge has it's debut Uk run - its 3rd at Punchestown 030511 was a good effort (the winner won 2/2 since) and has arguably the best form.
Wednesday, 23 November 2011
The Hennessey Gold Cup Saturday 26th November at 3.10
The Hennessy Gold Cup takes place at Newbury on Saturday 26th November. Run over 3M 2½F, it’s a grade 3 handicap chase which usually attracts a high class field of staying chasers. In 2002 Be My Royal won the race was disqualified weeks later due to a banned substance, from a trends point of view we will count Be My Royal as the winner in 2002.
The importance of this race in the calendar cannot be over emphasised – runners who come in the first 8 places will go on for wins in major staying races including for some curious reason the Grand National and of course The Gold Cup.
Before you do anything else go back to last year’s race in The visual Form Book and add to the library Diamond Harry’s win then you will see the balance of last year and be able to compare it with this year’s card on Friday evening.
Last year the field was dominated by the entry of Denman carrying 11-12 (a massive burden for this race) the rest all carried 10-00 - Denman was bidding to make history by becoming the first three-time winner in the 54 running’s of the event. Its presence in the line-up rather compressed the weights with only four others, including two of his stable companions and the 2008 winner Madison Du Berlais, in the handicap proper. Despite that there were several interesting second-season chasers lurking just out of the weights, Diamond Harry and Burton Port were only just outside the handicap proper and were the ones to battle out the finish. The pace was strong as is often the case and the time excellent, being over 18secs faster than the earlier amateurs´ handicap over the trip and just over 0.7secs outside the course record.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-0-3
6yo: 3-10-27
7yo: 5-7-57
8yo: 1-4-34
9yo: 1-3-37
10yo: 0-3-16
11yo+: 0-0-5
6 and 7 year olds have the best record (combined 8-17-84) which compares well to all others ages (combined 2-10-95).
Diamond Edge in 1981 is the only horse aged over 9 to have won the race in the last 40 years.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners) you can forget last year’s compression of the handicap this year and then you can consider the Norm handicap line up
Horses carrying 11-0 or more: 6-7-47
Horses carrying less than 11-0: 4-20-132
Higher weights hold the call in this with 5 of the last 6 winners all carrying 11-4 or more, one exception was last year when Denman was the only runner in the 18-strong field to carry over 11-0.
Top Weight: 90F91P1313 (3-2-10) has gained 3 wins and 2 places in last 5 years, though Denman has twice carried top weight to victory, which slightly skews the top weight statistic.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 159 to 174: 2-1-11
Horses rated 142 to 158: 6-17-96
Horses rated 126 to 141: 2-9-73
The 2 wins & 1 place from horses rated 159+ were all achieved by Denman.
5 of the last 6 winners were officially rated 150 or higher. You Must look at Form in Array to find how well your animal is in the official handicap
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M 1F+ (exception was placed in previous year's Hennessy)
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on last completed start
7 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times over fences
8 of 10 winners had won at least 50% of their chase starts
7 of 10 winners were second season chasers
9 of 10 winners had run in 3 or fewer handicap chases
10 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher over fences
8 of 10 winners had won a graded/listed chase
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Diamond Harry): 3 (0-1-1)
Bet totepool Novice Chase winner (Aiteen Thirtythree): P7P11 (2-0-5)
Paddy Power Gold Cup winner (Great Endeavour): 1 (1-0-1)
Previous Worcester Nov Chase winner (Aiteen Thirtythree): 35 (0-1-2)
Towton Novice Chase winner (Wayward Prince): 68 (0-0-2)
Racing Post Chase winner (Quinz): 6P (0-0-2)
Cotswold Chase winner (Neptune Collonges): 807 (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in the RSA Chase last time, finishing 11P
Wayward Prince finished third under McCoy and Aiteen thirtythree p.u !
Wayward Prince finished third under McCoy and Aiteen thirtythree p.u !
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Feltham, finishing 25
2 of 10 winners ran in the Bet Totepool Novice Chase, finishing 11
Diamond Harry may try to repeat last year’s win, the only previous horse to win back to back runnings was Arkle.
Running Style
8 of 10 winners (last 6) raced with the leaders throughout
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (3-6-22) has won the race 3 times in the past 8 years, including twice with Denman (07 & 09) and may have won it a fourth time but for Big Buck’s unseating 2 out.
Nicky Henderson (1-3-10) saddled the winner in 2005 and has had a placed finisher in 3 of the last 5 renewals.
Willie Mullins (1-1-5), David Pipe (1-1-7) and Philip Hobbs (1-1-11) have each gained a winner and a place from their runners in past 10 years.
Price
7 of last 8 winners were sent off 10/1 or shorter
No massive trend on the prices though the first 3 in the betting have been responsible for 6 of the last 8 winners.
Favourites (3-2-10) have won 3 renewals in the past 10 years and show a level stakes profit of 0.00.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 or 7
- Carrying 11-0+
- Officially rated 150 to 158
- Run in 3 to 6 chase (winning at least half)
- Won a class 2 or better chase over 3M 1F+
- Won a listed or graded chase
- Finished in the first 2 last time out
- Run in 3 or fewer handicap chases
- Tends to race prominently
- Second season chaser that ran in RSA and/or Feltham Chase
- Trained by P Nicholls, D Pipe, N Henderson or W Mullins
- Price 10/1 or shorter
Having said all that this year’s renewal should be a cracker of a race and the most exciting of finishes as always _ from Last years blog ---
8 winners (CARRYING 10-00 DEAD)
10 winners (CARRYING 10-5 T0 10-9)
6 winners ( carrying 10-9 TO 11-00)
13 winners (CARRYING 11-00 TO 11-05)
7 winners (CARRIED MORE THAN 11-08 TO 12-00)
4 (CARRIED 12-00 +)
Horses that conform to past winners going way back since I was a boy have to have solid recent form. And the past ten years does not tell the whole story – the win of Be My Royal at 40/1 was probably my biggest winning day having backed it at 40/1 ante post I got 50/1 on track and backed it right down - (and did it in the forecast with Gingembre) – a horse with a very similar profile is Joncol who no doubt has this as its gold cup target – remember its brilliant win in the Irish Hennessey at leopardstown - problem is it’s a bit dodgy healthwise but it was pretty damn scintillating at Thurles winning in a similar vein to Be My Royal and the quote from Paul Nolan - "will come on an awful lot for this. This is the first year that we´ve had no hiccups with him at this stage and if we can get a clear run with him I think he could be a stone better than he´s rated. We´ll see how he comes out of this and we´ll think about the Hennessy at Newbury". Has been well backed you have to take a look at the race on ATR. The ground is all against him that’s true but Be My Royal had never won on g/soft before his run and disqualified win – the substance found in its urine was nothing other than contaminated feed – nothing that would help it win on any ground.
Of the Nichols horses the darkun must be Michele le Bon who has been laid off since last year – is a one massive bugger of a horse with a turn of speed but coming back after a layoff of this length of time is a worry for a horse that has had only one run.
The horse outside of the handicap proper that attracts is the very long shot Qhilimar at 40/1 is a very dark horse now its joined the Longsdon yard has won round this track and though no Jockey assigned yet I would be delighted if Obrien gets the ride again but that looks unlikely as he is booked for Newcastle but stranger things have happened.
Its a great race and you have to have an opinion so let me see it guys
hope you enjoy these Stats
Bob
Thursday Morning Edit --- JONCOL was last night ruled out of Saturday's Hennessy Gold Cup in a change of plan by trainer Paul Nolan who had earlier described the eight-year-old as "90 per cent certain " to run in the big Newbury event.
CARRUTHERS warmed up for this when placed over 3m3f at Cheltenham a fortnight earlier and he made most to finally bag that big-race success he had long promised. He put in a fantastic round of jumping and emerges with any amount of credit as he continually fought off challengers.
This was the eight-year-old´s first success since winning a graduation chase on heavy ground at this trackin 2009, but he has rarely run a bad race since. This advertises his versatility for underfoot conditions and he was well handicapped on his previous best efforts. The decision to fit a first-time tongue-tie also fully paid off.
It´s hard to see the winner now improving enough to trouble the main Gold Cup hopes, remembering he has been well held in that event the past two years. Perhaps coming back here for the Aon Chase in February is his best option, but the race that could really be for him down the line is the Grand National, if not this season, then definitely the next. His jumping and willing attitude would make him a sight to see in that.
Planet Of Sound ran a blinder on this return to action and he has evidently benefited big time for being given a breathing operation during his seasonal break. He travelled beautifully at a course he adores and only tired very late in the day. This former Grade 1 winner loves a sound surface and looks firmly back on track. Indeed he could improve enoughto nick a Graded race again this term, but his trainer afterwards pointed at a potential crack at the Grand National in April. He´d be nearly top weight in that.
The runner-up´s stablemate Fair Along arrived with a fair bit to prove, but one has to think he would have gone very close had he not gone from near first to last after an error at the very first fence. He was motoring from three out and the engine is clearly still very much intact.
The well-backed Great Endeavour was bidding to emulate Celestial Gold, who completed the Paddy Power Gold Cup and Hennessy double for the same connections back in 2004. He was 6lb ahead of the handicapper under his penalty and hacked round out the back in an attempt to conserve his doubtful stamina. As he made up ground easily leaving the back straight it looked as though he would throw down a strong challenge on the inside, but the tank was empty from the penultimate fence and clearly this was too far for him. He´s evidently still improving and can go in again back down in trip.
Beshabar was having his first outing since landing the Scottish National in April and was 4lb higher. He posted a cracking effort and was running on again late in the day after getting outpaced in the home straight. He was later found to be lame on his left fore. Providing connections can preserve his mark he appeals a leading player for the Grand National, as marathon trips do look made for him. He was cut into 14-1 ante-post market leader with some firms.
Wymottwas last seen pulling up in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham back in March and there was every chance he was lining up a well-handicapped horse here. With the cheekpieces left off, he proved easy to back on account of the lively ground and it was just the fast surface which looked against him. It was good to see him back.
Tullamore Dew, a faller in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last time, looked interesting up in trip. However, while he wasn´t disgraced he rather spoilt his chances of seeing out the distance by running freely.
Blazing Bailey is not the force of old, but he ran an encouraging first race back and can find another opening this term.
The Giant Bolster ran something of an eye-catching race as he didn´tget the best of passages and probably found this too stiff. There is a nice pot in him back over a sharper test should he ever put in a clear round again.
Aiteen Thirtythree was the choice of Ruby Walsh and was well backed. He got a very positive ride but lacks a turn of foot and these tactics were probably best despite him fading in the home straight. The race that could really suit him this season is the Scottish National next April and, if connections point him that way, he could well emerge asa leading hope for the big one at Aintree next term.
Nicholls also saddled Michel Le Bon, who was having his first outing since injury struck after a bloodless success as a novice at this meeting in 2009. He was the total unknown quantity in the race and, while he ultimately dropped away, there was a lot of promise in this comeback effort. He should learn plenty and it´s hoped he remains sound.
The big disappointment was last season´s classy novice Wayward Prince, who has shone when fresh in the past and got very well backed for this handicap debut. However he hardly jumped a fence out the back and now has it all to prove. His rider later reported that he was never travelling.
Sarando was another well backed in the ante-post betting after a bloodless comeback success at Carlisle 19 days earlier, but he drifted out towards the off. He was still going well within himself prior to falling at the 16th, where he hampered both The Giant Bolster and Muirhead. The latter looked in trouble at that stage. [DO]
QUOTES: Trainer´s wife Sara Bradstock: "Carruthers had a tongue-tie on which I think made the difference. Last season he didn´t come right. He is such a little hero and just kept running okay enough for us to keep going with him but he just wasn´t right. He got a virus, he came back from Ascot not quite right, then he got better, then he ran okay in the Hennessy, then he kept tying up. He was just riddled with virus and this year he has come back much stronger."
Trainer Philip Hobbs: "Planet Of Sound ran great. I´ve just spoken with Richard [Johnson] and the owners and the Grand National might be the job for him. He stays and that could be realistic. Old Fair Along ran a fantastic race so we´ll stick with long-distance chases for him."
Jockey Timmy Murphy: "Great Endeavour didn´t get home in the last two furlongs, but he has run a cracker."
Thursday Morning Edit --- JONCOL was last night ruled out of Saturday's Hennessy Gold Cup in a change of plan by trainer Paul Nolan who had earlier described the eight-year-old as "90 per cent certain " to run in the big Newbury event.
"His next race will probably be the John Durkan Memorial Chase at Punchestown on December 11." Joncol won the 2m 4f Grade 1 Punchestown event in 2009.would appear to begoing the other way. Consequently, we have decided against running him.
Result - Although this year´s Hennessy was not the race it initially promised to be with Time For Rupert and Weird Al defecting to last week´s Betfair Chase, and Ireland´s Joncol staying at home due to the lively ground, it was still a typically absorbing handicap. They set a decent early tempo but then steadied it on the far side and, ultimately, it paid to race handily.
CARRUTHERS warmed up for this when placed over 3m3f at Cheltenham a fortnight earlier and he made most to finally bag that big-race success he had long promised. He put in a fantastic round of jumping and emerges with any amount of credit as he continually fought off challengers.
This was the eight-year-old´s first success since winning a graduation chase on heavy ground at this trackin 2009, but he has rarely run a bad race since. This advertises his versatility for underfoot conditions and he was well handicapped on his previous best efforts. The decision to fit a first-time tongue-tie also fully paid off.
It´s hard to see the winner now improving enough to trouble the main Gold Cup hopes, remembering he has been well held in that event the past two years. Perhaps coming back here for the Aon Chase in February is his best option, but the race that could really be for him down the line is the Grand National, if not this season, then definitely the next. His jumping and willing attitude would make him a sight to see in that.
Planet Of Sound ran a blinder on this return to action and he has evidently benefited big time for being given a breathing operation during his seasonal break. He travelled beautifully at a course he adores and only tired very late in the day. This former Grade 1 winner loves a sound surface and looks firmly back on track. Indeed he could improve enoughto nick a Graded race again this term, but his trainer afterwards pointed at a potential crack at the Grand National in April. He´d be nearly top weight in that.
The runner-up´s stablemate Fair Along arrived with a fair bit to prove, but one has to think he would have gone very close had he not gone from near first to last after an error at the very first fence. He was motoring from three out and the engine is clearly still very much intact.
The well-backed Great Endeavour was bidding to emulate Celestial Gold, who completed the Paddy Power Gold Cup and Hennessy double for the same connections back in 2004. He was 6lb ahead of the handicapper under his penalty and hacked round out the back in an attempt to conserve his doubtful stamina. As he made up ground easily leaving the back straight it looked as though he would throw down a strong challenge on the inside, but the tank was empty from the penultimate fence and clearly this was too far for him. He´s evidently still improving and can go in again back down in trip.
Beshabar was having his first outing since landing the Scottish National in April and was 4lb higher. He posted a cracking effort and was running on again late in the day after getting outpaced in the home straight. He was later found to be lame on his left fore. Providing connections can preserve his mark he appeals a leading player for the Grand National, as marathon trips do look made for him. He was cut into 14-1 ante-post market leader with some firms.
Wymottwas last seen pulling up in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham back in March and there was every chance he was lining up a well-handicapped horse here. With the cheekpieces left off, he proved easy to back on account of the lively ground and it was just the fast surface which looked against him. It was good to see him back.
Tullamore Dew, a faller in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last time, looked interesting up in trip. However, while he wasn´t disgraced he rather spoilt his chances of seeing out the distance by running freely.
Blazing Bailey is not the force of old, but he ran an encouraging first race back and can find another opening this term.
The Giant Bolster ran something of an eye-catching race as he didn´tget the best of passages and probably found this too stiff. There is a nice pot in him back over a sharper test should he ever put in a clear round again.
Aiteen Thirtythree was the choice of Ruby Walsh and was well backed. He got a very positive ride but lacks a turn of foot and these tactics were probably best despite him fading in the home straight. The race that could really suit him this season is the Scottish National next April and, if connections point him that way, he could well emerge asa leading hope for the big one at Aintree next term.
Nicholls also saddled Michel Le Bon, who was having his first outing since injury struck after a bloodless success as a novice at this meeting in 2009. He was the total unknown quantity in the race and, while he ultimately dropped away, there was a lot of promise in this comeback effort. He should learn plenty and it´s hoped he remains sound.
The big disappointment was last season´s classy novice Wayward Prince, who has shone when fresh in the past and got very well backed for this handicap debut. However he hardly jumped a fence out the back and now has it all to prove. His rider later reported that he was never travelling.
Sarando was another well backed in the ante-post betting after a bloodless comeback success at Carlisle 19 days earlier, but he drifted out towards the off. He was still going well within himself prior to falling at the 16th, where he hampered both The Giant Bolster and Muirhead. The latter looked in trouble at that stage. [DO]
QUOTES: Trainer´s wife Sara Bradstock: "Carruthers had a tongue-tie on which I think made the difference. Last season he didn´t come right. He is such a little hero and just kept running okay enough for us to keep going with him but he just wasn´t right. He got a virus, he came back from Ascot not quite right, then he got better, then he ran okay in the Hennessy, then he kept tying up. He was just riddled with virus and this year he has come back much stronger."
Trainer Philip Hobbs: "Planet Of Sound ran great. I´ve just spoken with Richard [Johnson] and the owners and the Grand National might be the job for him. He stays and that could be realistic. Old Fair Along ran a fantastic race so we´ll stick with long-distance chases for him."
Jockey Timmy Murphy: "Great Endeavour didn´t get home in the last two furlongs, but he has run a cracker."
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)