Hennessy Gold Cup Chase!

So now comes my analysis for the Hennessy Gold Cup as promised. First of All I wanna say that this years renewal is much weaker than last year contest. For this prove I have taken a screenshot of lasts year race.



As you can see the general level of Bspeed and Bhcp was much better last year....

Selection 1:

My first selection is Great Endeavour win here 7.8 BSP. The reason for this is its last run in Cheltenham on 12/11/11 14 days ago. What appeals to me in Great Endavour that he won LTO a race in amazing style, that was firstly run at an immense pace and with decent animals, that come much more close to the level of lasts year Hennessy. To understand the logic about my reasoning I have put up a dataform screenshot of the LTO race in Cheltenham and a video how strong the horse was actually. From the screenshot, you can see that it was a very strong field and on the video you can see that it was one of the fastest run races this year. There is doubt, that Great Endeavour stays the distance and track suitability also there is doubt about freshness, but to me LTO performance was too strong, that Im willing to take in the risk of that. Another plus is that its a horse that races with the leader and still runs on strongly.






Video Cheltenham run:

http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,468263_3,00.html

BOOM! Finished 4th but was leading in the last 50 metres down to 2.0 Inrunning and totally broke down and weakened rapidly, I hedged out at 2.22 Inrunning.

Selection 2:

My 2nd selection is Carruthers Win and Place 21 BSP 5.3 PSP with the intention to trade out win around 6.0 mark and letting the place stay.

Carruthers is way to overpriced here in my eyes. The horse ran last year in the same contest which were much better animals and has today an immense advantage in the weights.
I have to say its a bit of a dodgepots in the last furlong but proved ability in much better company to race most of the race pretty decent and there comes the weight into play I can imagine this time a place and a really good run, as its a weaker Hennessy and Carruther came back LTO very nice over 3m3f in Cheltenham and raced a really good race upto 3m2f there.
Last race the horse carried 11-07 weight upthe hill and weakened in the last furlong pretty heavily and ran a cracker upto then.Considering the weight and the horse it lost against I highly rate this performance and if the horse gets a run today from the front again, which is likely there is a big chance that it will trade very low early, as the horse can press very hard and contain that speed. I have made a sreenshot of lasts race and added a video of that race plus the race from last years Gold Cup. The jumping of Carruthers seems to be improved aswell. Carries today 10-04 and races against poorer opposition then general. I see value in this, as punters see that it races 6th last year but it wasnt that bad actually. Another thing that strucks me is that LTO was after a long layoff and the horse never started in such a top form after a long break.







Video last run Cheltenham:

http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,470285_3,00.html

Video last year Hennessy Gold Cup

http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,407962_3,00.html

BOOM! Leading all the way and hacked up nicely, I traded out at 4.6 for the win though and got my place fully matched let it stay.

Selection 3:

Sarando BSP 18 and 4.0 PSP appeals to me as this horse is unexposed 6 year old and fits into the statistics and showed already in Aintree under similiar conditions with improving young upcoming horses under a fast gallop a real finish against Quito De La Roque ( My Cheltenham Gold Cup favourite). The race was truly run, because there was Golans Way who raced recently in Cheltenham making as Front Runner a heavy pace. This race is a good form measure as it was truly run.
Franked that form in Carlisle and is my 3rd chance here, as has similar to Great Endeavour an amazing finish. I hav added a video from his Aintree run.

Video Aintree run:

http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,425874_3,00.html

Sarando was sad, that he fell, because he travelled nicely from the front and this race wasnt as fast pace then usual in my eyes, he would have had a great chance in my eyes in the closing stages.

Good Luck to all!