Battle Group Odds of 3.85 BSP I have to take tomorrow for the debut Chasing debut of Battle Group.
Is here clearly the class animal. Raced this year on the Aintree Festival over this distance over the hurdles and ran on late very strong. Favourite Fists Of Fury 2.8 BSP raced on that day in Aintree overy similar distance and I watched the two races simultaneously and have to say that Battle Group is way more classy than the favourite, had a much stronger pace and ran on much better. Battle Group is the better horse to me when fit and not running for the bookies. The change to bigger fences should be okay as the horse has experience on hard fences from Cheltenham another plus. Battle Group raced LTO in a fast and furious HH1L in Cheltenham that was just 11 days ago, this race is one for me that has to be notebooked by the way, when Golan Way tried to make all and had 10 length lead most of the way and the horses that finished there with stamina left are to be followed. A truly run race, I say this because when a horse in Cheltenham forces from the beginning such a pace upto the last two fences its a real task upthehill and the pace force was constant. Its a listed so the 3 horses Pettitfour, Dorset Square and Oscargo from that day are horses to be followed on similar tracks to Cheltenham.
Back to Battlegroup the horse likes a small field and has ability to go fast and finish strong or go slow and drive out late so its a versatile option. The Track Wetherby is just right for his Chasing Debut, the only worry to me is the exhausting race 11 days ago and why such a low prize money class race? I take these odds still, as its just the best horse in this line up.
Honest John makes a great insurance place appeal to me ran LTO in a Class 2 Chase against my selection Sarando and really ran a cracker race leading alltheway getting a bit outpaced upthehill and battling on gamely, currently available at 10.0 BSP is definetely my shot here in this race to win or place.
Fontwell 1.50 HH4 3m3f Handicap Hurdle
Madame Jasmine ( GB) 9.8 BSP sired by Karinga Bay and running for today as Sue Smith runner has under significant Jockey booking Tom Cannon.
First of all Karinga Bay runners are perform pretty good over 3m3f and Fontwell is a track with a great historical Strikerate for this sire.
This horse catched my eye, because it ran LTO over 3m in a HH3 in Cheltenham and performed to me pretty good with much better animals and a decent pace in a classier field than today. Then I watched the 2nd LTO run in Plumpton similar track a HH5 and watched at the same time the favs Always Bold LTO run here in Fontwell a HH5. Comparing these two performances is a bit hard, but one thing is for sure, the Favourites last run was against such a poor opposition, such a lame race, I can walk faster than these horses and in the end the fav got a bit driven. Such an ordinary contest, for gods sake you cannot watch this race again, its really a walk not a race. Madame Jasmines Plumpton run instead was a good forced gallop much better and Madame Jasmine pulled a bit in the beginning but ran on strongly very nice performance which was not a HH5 perfromance it was to me a HH4 win perfromance+. The only negative really is the days since run of 224 days, but I really dont believe that the horse wont be fit, as this field is really weak and Madame Jasmine can win this today.
My Matilda makes appeal aswell here at these weights but way too short here.
Wetherby 13.30 2m Nov Hurdle HS 4
My Tara BSP 50 and 8.8 PSP Trevor Wheelan booked.
Can somebody explain me why this horse is 50 BSP today? There is obviously no valid reason for this to me. Okay has a long absence, but has easy the ability to win this here today. LTO has the highest Dataform rating from all runners and the best DHcp all time here and it scored this in a HS 3 run LTO in Market Rasen over 2m3f which was really truly run race you can see that on the speed figures. I have a Private Speed Figure of 142 Adjusted for this run and I watched it on video it was fast and My Tara was going smoothly with them all the time upto 2m1f. Finished in this race 1 length beaten to Bottmann and several other good animals. If these odds dont go down today, I wonder why? Has great place potential.
I did a bit research on Trevor Wheelan and from the racingpost statistics, he looks like a very good jockey on horses with a RPR over 100 has a very high Strikerate this guy. From Bobs experience, what is your opinion about Trevor Wheelan?
Wetherby 2.00 Handicap Chase Class 3
Sophonie 14.0 BSP as a BTLAY option trying to close around 7.0 BSP sired by Kapgarde runs today and offers hopefully great value today.
My eye came to this as its sired by the same sire than my 2 mile hero Edgardo Sol, a horse for which I see a bright future in 2 mile Chases.
Kapgarde is one of the best french sire I researched it in the internet.
So what the deal with Sophonie? The horse left france with a 2nd in a 20k race which looks promising. Comes to Uk and finishes 2nd in an ordinary Hexham Class 4 hurdle stakes. Looked on video quite well is travelling very well and can come into gear late.
Starting again in a HS4 Hurdle in Newcastle over 2m4f Soft Ground and travelling well like a winner and just stopping 2f before the line on the uphill runin.
The same LTO in the Chase debut in Kelso in a Ch4 over 2m1f travelling smoothly and just stopped the last furlongs.
Today entered in a Class 3 event on a track and distance which seems to me perfect. It makes me think why Class 3 here and from the videos there is definetely some ability in this horse upto 2m1f if ridden out and not stopping online. I checked the Dosage Profile which reads ,
It seems to me that the breeding is good upto 2m1f and it faced two times an uphill runin when stopping, before it raced well smoothly and making good ground.
So Im on this horse today, as I think its overpriced and has today really low weight of 10/12 and offers a bit value for the chance I wrote down. Has Graham Lee on Board today which is the best jockey in Wetherby from my systems analyser report for Chase Hcps Wetherby.
Best Lover is my main contender to win this race, seems to be targeted for this race as a long absence runner and has a very high Dataform Hcp from LTO. But its too short for me to play here.
4 comments:
I agree that Honest John looks a value bet mate.
taking one race at a time 12.55 Battle Group has refused to race in the past and comes with a health warning. If he consents to run he is the class animal in the field over HURDLES..has not jumped a fence anywhere Rade and is only schooling at home --this is a not a race to bet in for me
3m3f g/soft 1.50 Fontwell - very tight handicap (Will be very interested in Rades Stats for Karinga Bay at Fontwell? I agree That Madam Jasmine is well in looks as if the distance is within her scope but if she takes the usual hard pull will be vulnerable to Tiger Line a real bridle stayer from Kayf Tara who is my choice
2.00 Wetherby - love your reasoning in this race and will go with you with Sophonie (who would prefer it deeper ground - but second run is when to catch Ferdy horses) look for an in running on Cool Operator has been running to get a mark and when on song is backed down - can really jump a fence and any real money before the off will tell for this long outsider
good analysis Rade thanks for the detail - and come back to me please with those stats on Karinga bay and fontwell
of the rest of the card there watch out for Moore For Moore runners they seldom leave this track win less
good Luck Bob
Here are the stats for you from 01/01/2002-08/11/2011 Karinga Bay had
on Hcp Hurdles in Fontwell 31 runners and 4 winners with a 246% profit. Its a low example but shows a low tendency that this track isnt unsuitable. Another nice stat: Jockey >=B+4 win 26% of these Hcp Hurdles races in Fontwell, and Cannon falls into that category.
What do you mean with health warning? Where do I get such information?
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