5yos have a very strong record in this race having won 6 of the last 10 runnings of this race (in 2 of the other 4 years they did not have a representative).
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 runners finished in the first 2 last time out
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle (exception The French Furze had finished 2nd in previous 3 renewals)
7 of 10 winners had previously run in 4 to 11 hurdles
8 of 10 winners were 2nd or 3rd season hurdlers
5 of 5 season hurdler winners had won a class 1 hurdle at Aintree or Cheltenham Festivals that year
7 of 10 winners (last 5) were officially rated 150+ over hurdles
7 of 10 winners finished in first 5 in a graded hurdle at Cheltenham Festival (3 exceptions missed Cheltenham that year)
5 of last 7 winners contested a 2M grade 1 at that year’s Punchestown Festival (other 2 had won a grade 1 novice hurdle at Cheltenham)
Price
6 of 10 winners were sent off favourite
This is a good race for the favourite (6-3-11) who shows a level stakes profit of 2.15. Binocular in the past 2 renewals has been the only unplaced favourite in the race in the past 15 years.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 5
- Finished in the first 2 last time out
- Previously won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
- Second or third season hurdler
- Officially rated 150+
- Finished in first 5 in a grade 1 at Punchestown Festival or
- Won at Cheltenham Festival
- Trained by Nicky Henderson or Donald McCain
- Sent off favourite
good luck all
Bob
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