The Hennessy Gold Cup takes place at Newbury on Saturday 26th November. Run over 3M 2½F, it’s a grade 3 handicap chase which usually attracts a high class field of staying chasers. In 2002 Be My Royal won the race was disqualified weeks later due to a banned substance, from a trends point of view we will count Be My Royal as the winner in 2002.
The importance of this race in the calendar cannot be over emphasised – runners who come in the first 8 places will go on for wins in major staying races including for some curious reason the Grand National and of course The Gold Cup.
Before you do anything else go back to last year’s race in The visual Form Book and add to the library Diamond Harry’s win then you will see the balance of last year and be able to compare it with this year’s card on Friday evening.
Last year the field was dominated by the entry of Denman carrying 11-12 (a massive burden for this race) the rest all carried 10-00 - Denman was bidding to make history by becoming the first three-time winner in the 54 running’s of the event. Its presence in the line-up rather compressed the weights with only four others, including two of his stable companions and the 2008 winner Madison Du Berlais, in the handicap proper. Despite that there were several interesting second-season chasers lurking just out of the weights, Diamond Harry and Burton Port were only just outside the handicap proper and were the ones to battle out the finish. The pace was strong as is often the case and the time excellent, being over 18secs faster than the earlier amateurs´ handicap over the trip and just over 0.7secs outside the course record.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-0-3
6yo: 3-10-27
7yo: 5-7-57
8yo: 1-4-34
9yo: 1-3-37
10yo: 0-3-16
11yo+: 0-0-5
6 and 7 year olds have the best record (combined 8-17-84) which compares well to all others ages (combined 2-10-95).
Diamond Edge in 1981 is the only horse aged over 9 to have won the race in the last 40 years.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners) you can forget last year’s compression of the handicap this year and then you can consider the Norm handicap line up
Horses carrying 11-0 or more: 6-7-47
Horses carrying less than 11-0: 4-20-132
Higher weights hold the call in this with 5 of the last 6 winners all carrying 11-4 or more, one exception was last year when Denman was the only runner in the 18-strong field to carry over 11-0.
Top Weight: 90F91P1313 (3-2-10) has gained 3 wins and 2 places in last 5 years, though Denman has twice carried top weight to victory, which slightly skews the top weight statistic.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 159 to 174: 2-1-11
Horses rated 142 to 158: 6-17-96
Horses rated 126 to 141: 2-9-73
The 2 wins & 1 place from horses rated 159+ were all achieved by Denman.
5 of the last 6 winners were officially rated 150 or higher. You Must look at Form in Array to find how well your animal is in the official handicap
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M 1F+ (exception was placed in previous year's Hennessy)
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on last completed start
7 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times over fences
8 of 10 winners had won at least 50% of their chase starts
7 of 10 winners were second season chasers
9 of 10 winners had run in 3 or fewer handicap chases
10 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher over fences
8 of 10 winners had won a graded/listed chase
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Diamond Harry): 3 (0-1-1)
Bet totepool Novice Chase winner (Aiteen Thirtythree): P7P11 (2-0-5)
Paddy Power Gold Cup winner (Great Endeavour): 1 (1-0-1)
Previous Worcester Nov Chase winner (Aiteen Thirtythree): 35 (0-1-2)
Towton Novice Chase winner (Wayward Prince): 68 (0-0-2)
Racing Post Chase winner (Quinz): 6P (0-0-2)
Cotswold Chase winner (Neptune Collonges): 807 (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in the RSA Chase last time, finishing 11P
Wayward Prince finished third under McCoy and Aiteen thirtythree p.u !
Wayward Prince finished third under McCoy and Aiteen thirtythree p.u !
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Feltham, finishing 25
2 of 10 winners ran in the Bet Totepool Novice Chase, finishing 11
Diamond Harry may try to repeat last year’s win, the only previous horse to win back to back runnings was Arkle.
Running Style
8 of 10 winners (last 6) raced with the leaders throughout
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (3-6-22) has won the race 3 times in the past 8 years, including twice with Denman (07 & 09) and may have won it a fourth time but for Big Buck’s unseating 2 out.
Nicky Henderson (1-3-10) saddled the winner in 2005 and has had a placed finisher in 3 of the last 5 renewals.
Willie Mullins (1-1-5), David Pipe (1-1-7) and Philip Hobbs (1-1-11) have each gained a winner and a place from their runners in past 10 years.
Price
7 of last 8 winners were sent off 10/1 or shorter
No massive trend on the prices though the first 3 in the betting have been responsible for 6 of the last 8 winners.
Favourites (3-2-10) have won 3 renewals in the past 10 years and show a level stakes profit of 0.00.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 or 7
- Carrying 11-0+
- Officially rated 150 to 158
- Run in 3 to 6 chase (winning at least half)
- Won a class 2 or better chase over 3M 1F+
- Won a listed or graded chase
- Finished in the first 2 last time out
- Run in 3 or fewer handicap chases
- Tends to race prominently
- Second season chaser that ran in RSA and/or Feltham Chase
- Trained by P Nicholls, D Pipe, N Henderson or W Mullins
- Price 10/1 or shorter
Having said all that this year’s renewal should be a cracker of a race and the most exciting of finishes as always _ from Last years blog ---
8 winners (CARRYING 10-00 DEAD)
10 winners (CARRYING 10-5 T0 10-9)
6 winners ( carrying 10-9 TO 11-00)
13 winners (CARRYING 11-00 TO 11-05)
7 winners (CARRIED MORE THAN 11-08 TO 12-00)
4 (CARRIED 12-00 +)
Horses that conform to past winners going way back since I was a boy have to have solid recent form. And the past ten years does not tell the whole story – the win of Be My Royal at 40/1 was probably my biggest winning day having backed it at 40/1 ante post I got 50/1 on track and backed it right down - (and did it in the forecast with Gingembre) – a horse with a very similar profile is Joncol who no doubt has this as its gold cup target – remember its brilliant win in the Irish Hennessey at leopardstown - problem is it’s a bit dodgy healthwise but it was pretty damn scintillating at Thurles winning in a similar vein to Be My Royal and the quote from Paul Nolan - "will come on an awful lot for this. This is the first year that we´ve had no hiccups with him at this stage and if we can get a clear run with him I think he could be a stone better than he´s rated. We´ll see how he comes out of this and we´ll think about the Hennessy at Newbury". Has been well backed you have to take a look at the race on ATR. The ground is all against him that’s true but Be My Royal had never won on g/soft before his run and disqualified win – the substance found in its urine was nothing other than contaminated feed – nothing that would help it win on any ground.
Of the Nichols horses the darkun must be Michele le Bon who has been laid off since last year – is a one massive bugger of a horse with a turn of speed but coming back after a layoff of this length of time is a worry for a horse that has had only one run.
The horse outside of the handicap proper that attracts is the very long shot Qhilimar at 40/1 is a very dark horse now its joined the Longsdon yard has won round this track and though no Jockey assigned yet I would be delighted if Obrien gets the ride again but that looks unlikely as he is booked for Newcastle but stranger things have happened.
Its a great race and you have to have an opinion so let me see it guys
hope you enjoy these Stats
Bob
Thursday Morning Edit --- JONCOL was last night ruled out of Saturday's Hennessy Gold Cup in a change of plan by trainer Paul Nolan who had earlier described the eight-year-old as "90 per cent certain " to run in the big Newbury event.
CARRUTHERS warmed up for this when placed over 3m3f at Cheltenham a fortnight earlier and he made most to finally bag that big-race success he had long promised. He put in a fantastic round of jumping and emerges with any amount of credit as he continually fought off challengers.
This was the eight-year-old´s first success since winning a graduation chase on heavy ground at this trackin 2009, but he has rarely run a bad race since. This advertises his versatility for underfoot conditions and he was well handicapped on his previous best efforts. The decision to fit a first-time tongue-tie also fully paid off.
It´s hard to see the winner now improving enough to trouble the main Gold Cup hopes, remembering he has been well held in that event the past two years. Perhaps coming back here for the Aon Chase in February is his best option, but the race that could really be for him down the line is the Grand National, if not this season, then definitely the next. His jumping and willing attitude would make him a sight to see in that.
Planet Of Sound ran a blinder on this return to action and he has evidently benefited big time for being given a breathing operation during his seasonal break. He travelled beautifully at a course he adores and only tired very late in the day. This former Grade 1 winner loves a sound surface and looks firmly back on track. Indeed he could improve enoughto nick a Graded race again this term, but his trainer afterwards pointed at a potential crack at the Grand National in April. He´d be nearly top weight in that.
The runner-up´s stablemate Fair Along arrived with a fair bit to prove, but one has to think he would have gone very close had he not gone from near first to last after an error at the very first fence. He was motoring from three out and the engine is clearly still very much intact.
The well-backed Great Endeavour was bidding to emulate Celestial Gold, who completed the Paddy Power Gold Cup and Hennessy double for the same connections back in 2004. He was 6lb ahead of the handicapper under his penalty and hacked round out the back in an attempt to conserve his doubtful stamina. As he made up ground easily leaving the back straight it looked as though he would throw down a strong challenge on the inside, but the tank was empty from the penultimate fence and clearly this was too far for him. He´s evidently still improving and can go in again back down in trip.
Beshabar was having his first outing since landing the Scottish National in April and was 4lb higher. He posted a cracking effort and was running on again late in the day after getting outpaced in the home straight. He was later found to be lame on his left fore. Providing connections can preserve his mark he appeals a leading player for the Grand National, as marathon trips do look made for him. He was cut into 14-1 ante-post market leader with some firms.
Wymottwas last seen pulling up in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham back in March and there was every chance he was lining up a well-handicapped horse here. With the cheekpieces left off, he proved easy to back on account of the lively ground and it was just the fast surface which looked against him. It was good to see him back.
Tullamore Dew, a faller in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last time, looked interesting up in trip. However, while he wasn´t disgraced he rather spoilt his chances of seeing out the distance by running freely.
Blazing Bailey is not the force of old, but he ran an encouraging first race back and can find another opening this term.
The Giant Bolster ran something of an eye-catching race as he didn´tget the best of passages and probably found this too stiff. There is a nice pot in him back over a sharper test should he ever put in a clear round again.
Aiteen Thirtythree was the choice of Ruby Walsh and was well backed. He got a very positive ride but lacks a turn of foot and these tactics were probably best despite him fading in the home straight. The race that could really suit him this season is the Scottish National next April and, if connections point him that way, he could well emerge asa leading hope for the big one at Aintree next term.
Nicholls also saddled Michel Le Bon, who was having his first outing since injury struck after a bloodless success as a novice at this meeting in 2009. He was the total unknown quantity in the race and, while he ultimately dropped away, there was a lot of promise in this comeback effort. He should learn plenty and it´s hoped he remains sound.
The big disappointment was last season´s classy novice Wayward Prince, who has shone when fresh in the past and got very well backed for this handicap debut. However he hardly jumped a fence out the back and now has it all to prove. His rider later reported that he was never travelling.
Sarando was another well backed in the ante-post betting after a bloodless comeback success at Carlisle 19 days earlier, but he drifted out towards the off. He was still going well within himself prior to falling at the 16th, where he hampered both The Giant Bolster and Muirhead. The latter looked in trouble at that stage. [DO]
QUOTES: Trainer´s wife Sara Bradstock: "Carruthers had a tongue-tie on which I think made the difference. Last season he didn´t come right. He is such a little hero and just kept running okay enough for us to keep going with him but he just wasn´t right. He got a virus, he came back from Ascot not quite right, then he got better, then he ran okay in the Hennessy, then he kept tying up. He was just riddled with virus and this year he has come back much stronger."
Trainer Philip Hobbs: "Planet Of Sound ran great. I´ve just spoken with Richard [Johnson] and the owners and the Grand National might be the job for him. He stays and that could be realistic. Old Fair Along ran a fantastic race so we´ll stick with long-distance chases for him."
Jockey Timmy Murphy: "Great Endeavour didn´t get home in the last two furlongs, but he has run a cracker."
Thursday Morning Edit --- JONCOL was last night ruled out of Saturday's Hennessy Gold Cup in a change of plan by trainer Paul Nolan who had earlier described the eight-year-old as "90 per cent certain " to run in the big Newbury event.
"His next race will probably be the John Durkan Memorial Chase at Punchestown on December 11." Joncol won the 2m 4f Grade 1 Punchestown event in 2009.would appear to begoing the other way. Consequently, we have decided against running him.
Result - Although this year´s Hennessy was not the race it initially promised to be with Time For Rupert and Weird Al defecting to last week´s Betfair Chase, and Ireland´s Joncol staying at home due to the lively ground, it was still a typically absorbing handicap. They set a decent early tempo but then steadied it on the far side and, ultimately, it paid to race handily.
CARRUTHERS warmed up for this when placed over 3m3f at Cheltenham a fortnight earlier and he made most to finally bag that big-race success he had long promised. He put in a fantastic round of jumping and emerges with any amount of credit as he continually fought off challengers.
This was the eight-year-old´s first success since winning a graduation chase on heavy ground at this trackin 2009, but he has rarely run a bad race since. This advertises his versatility for underfoot conditions and he was well handicapped on his previous best efforts. The decision to fit a first-time tongue-tie also fully paid off.
It´s hard to see the winner now improving enough to trouble the main Gold Cup hopes, remembering he has been well held in that event the past two years. Perhaps coming back here for the Aon Chase in February is his best option, but the race that could really be for him down the line is the Grand National, if not this season, then definitely the next. His jumping and willing attitude would make him a sight to see in that.
Planet Of Sound ran a blinder on this return to action and he has evidently benefited big time for being given a breathing operation during his seasonal break. He travelled beautifully at a course he adores and only tired very late in the day. This former Grade 1 winner loves a sound surface and looks firmly back on track. Indeed he could improve enoughto nick a Graded race again this term, but his trainer afterwards pointed at a potential crack at the Grand National in April. He´d be nearly top weight in that.
The runner-up´s stablemate Fair Along arrived with a fair bit to prove, but one has to think he would have gone very close had he not gone from near first to last after an error at the very first fence. He was motoring from three out and the engine is clearly still very much intact.
The well-backed Great Endeavour was bidding to emulate Celestial Gold, who completed the Paddy Power Gold Cup and Hennessy double for the same connections back in 2004. He was 6lb ahead of the handicapper under his penalty and hacked round out the back in an attempt to conserve his doubtful stamina. As he made up ground easily leaving the back straight it looked as though he would throw down a strong challenge on the inside, but the tank was empty from the penultimate fence and clearly this was too far for him. He´s evidently still improving and can go in again back down in trip.
Beshabar was having his first outing since landing the Scottish National in April and was 4lb higher. He posted a cracking effort and was running on again late in the day after getting outpaced in the home straight. He was later found to be lame on his left fore. Providing connections can preserve his mark he appeals a leading player for the Grand National, as marathon trips do look made for him. He was cut into 14-1 ante-post market leader with some firms.
Wymottwas last seen pulling up in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham back in March and there was every chance he was lining up a well-handicapped horse here. With the cheekpieces left off, he proved easy to back on account of the lively ground and it was just the fast surface which looked against him. It was good to see him back.
Tullamore Dew, a faller in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last time, looked interesting up in trip. However, while he wasn´t disgraced he rather spoilt his chances of seeing out the distance by running freely.
Blazing Bailey is not the force of old, but he ran an encouraging first race back and can find another opening this term.
The Giant Bolster ran something of an eye-catching race as he didn´tget the best of passages and probably found this too stiff. There is a nice pot in him back over a sharper test should he ever put in a clear round again.
Aiteen Thirtythree was the choice of Ruby Walsh and was well backed. He got a very positive ride but lacks a turn of foot and these tactics were probably best despite him fading in the home straight. The race that could really suit him this season is the Scottish National next April and, if connections point him that way, he could well emerge asa leading hope for the big one at Aintree next term.
Nicholls also saddled Michel Le Bon, who was having his first outing since injury struck after a bloodless success as a novice at this meeting in 2009. He was the total unknown quantity in the race and, while he ultimately dropped away, there was a lot of promise in this comeback effort. He should learn plenty and it´s hoped he remains sound.
The big disappointment was last season´s classy novice Wayward Prince, who has shone when fresh in the past and got very well backed for this handicap debut. However he hardly jumped a fence out the back and now has it all to prove. His rider later reported that he was never travelling.
Sarando was another well backed in the ante-post betting after a bloodless comeback success at Carlisle 19 days earlier, but he drifted out towards the off. He was still going well within himself prior to falling at the 16th, where he hampered both The Giant Bolster and Muirhead. The latter looked in trouble at that stage. [DO]
QUOTES: Trainer´s wife Sara Bradstock: "Carruthers had a tongue-tie on which I think made the difference. Last season he didn´t come right. He is such a little hero and just kept running okay enough for us to keep going with him but he just wasn´t right. He got a virus, he came back from Ascot not quite right, then he got better, then he ran okay in the Hennessy, then he kept tying up. He was just riddled with virus and this year he has come back much stronger."
Trainer Philip Hobbs: "Planet Of Sound ran great. I´ve just spoken with Richard [Johnson] and the owners and the Grand National might be the job for him. He stays and that could be realistic. Old Fair Along ran a fantastic race so we´ll stick with long-distance chases for him."
Jockey Timmy Murphy: "Great Endeavour didn´t get home in the last two furlongs, but he has run a cracker."
10 comments:
Having looked thru the trends and the form have managed to whittle this field down to two horses:
Aitken Thirtythree
Beshabar
I'm on them !!
And again a very nice write up, made with lots of care and detail for the thing itself, I thank you very much for this piece of information and the work you put into it. Do you know what I like? I like, that you do the thing for itself and that you have great knowledge abut the subject horseracing. I have a question to you. Where do you get these kind of stats for past races?
Im trying to go into the things you said, I will open the VFB card and check lasts year race,then I will write further.
P.S Carruthers is well in on last years form
Thanks for the replies gentlemen ! Can see the attraction for your animals Martin - Aiteen Thirty Three will have to jump better that its only try over fences so far IMO think he will be run off his feet in this as For Beshebar think he is gearing up for the champion chase from reports - hes pretty old for a this at nine He´s a big lad and a bit on the slow side but if you take his run in the 4 miler at cheltenham hes going to find this all too fast as well but he can jump a fence - and Caruthers he will relish softer ground but is very likeable front runner if he gets it he could be in with a big shout---
As for my Joncol well he's out already because of the forecast ground conditions -- with the band of rain forecast sweeping across Friday night that could be a disappointment for him and a plus for Carruthers !
Rade thanks for the compliment - all of these stats are easy to accumulate if you have been around a while! I have been to the Hennessy for many years and simply put down my thoughts - however the stats can now be found on the net Racing Post publish the last ten year winners under the card and there is a conglomeration of info on other sites -- you can simply start your own records and add them each year !Makes it a fascinating Hobby that can win you money
Hi bob love the treading as always, any thoughts on webber horse Sarando? Had a bet on it myself. Thought was most impressive at Carlisle and thought it would be a great bet at 14/1
Hi Michael - thanks mate am just out the door - wasn't Sarando impressive at Carlisle - (It was Rades choice that day) and he slayed them - was impressed with its close second to Quito De La Rogue at Aintree as well so will def take the track orbital has to keep up with them in the early stages methinks but def have him down for a bet if he does - has had the right layoff and your a shrewdie as I know - He ran over two miles against the like of Medermit and was a bit outpaced. but has the distance and ground in his favour -if he can keep up with the pace will be taking a price - thanks for the comment
Hi Mike, I gradually whittled the field down to two, but yours was the last that I put a line through. It has an outstanding chance.
I wonder why Wayward Prince is 8/1 here? Lost against Sarando clearly in Aintree and Sarando is 16/1 here. Any idea?
Michel Le Bon looks to me well built for this race, very athletic thin long striding horse,which seems to have a fast long stride, could be ideal for a fast pace in Newbury and looks from profile targeted for this run,won already two times after long layoff. Still never proved with a fast pace. I still favour Great endavours perfromance I just have worries about fitness after this exhausting race, but actually I should have a bet on him,as this race was outstandingly fast and he was ran on so strongly with much ease and looks from his profile steadily improving. Great Endavour for me in this race.
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