Disqualifications apart, which horse wins every race? The horse that completes the course in the fastest time! Following on from that, it would seem that picking winners is simple - back the fastest horse in each race. Erm ... wrong! It doesn't work that way. Some people compile/follow speed ratings - this can be useful, but not at every course - some courses require gallopers, some speedy types etc etc. It's ascertaining the type of horse for each course that gives us an edge, and that's all we need, an edge. I have analaysed every course from almost every angle, I have a database of every sire and know the type of horse it produces, going preferences, distances....you name it, I've probably got it. Losing my notes was a disaster, however, Bob is going to try to help me out (my fingers are crossed). Now, back to speed ratings - there are two camps , those that feel that a number of pounds per furlong should be taken into account, and my particular camp, that feels that a 10 stone odd jockey compared to say an 11 stone jockey isn't going to make any difference to a horses speed. Then we have another problem - pace! If every race was run at a true pace, speed figures would be a handy tool, unfortunately, they are not. I intend, over the next few weeks, to give you an insight into the TYPE of horse I feel wins at certain courses.
4 comments:
I agree with you Martin,thats the reason why I analyse imo every stat in the systemanalyser.
I think you get an good enough edge, if you have the stats you talk about(Sire,Course,Running Style, Ground and so on...) you watch the races with your eyes to see what animal it is and if you know every animal you can make a pace scenario,make notes and watch the betting market Its hard work in detail, but it gives you the edge.
Every race is new so one cannot it approach with old stats, you have to count in every detail and thats why you have too see the horses live i would say. The analyser show you if there is a ceratin advantage for sires or an advantage for runnign styles on certain distances courses. Great knowledge to use!
I quote you Rade
"Every race is new so one cannot it approach with old stats"
How far back do you consider stats before you consider them too old?
All horse racing form is based on stats - sires/races/ dsr class going prize money age in fact
All you are doing by studying form is giving yourself an edge - your two stunning winners this week were based on stats that the horse had not recently achieved.
youre right, what I mean is that every race is special with many influences and differences, just the kind of horses which are in. You find a good horse which is better suited for a big field but from stats is the horse to bet and thats where i see videofrom crucial, to see the quirks and advantages of every horse. And there is always one thing I have to mention. You can put millions of pounds on a horse on betfair and compared to most prizemoney of the races its just a joke. So human beigns are greedy for money and if they have the chance and knowledge they do. So I wouldnt wonder if in racing a lot of people do this actually and then your good horse can always run a stinker or other way around.
Post a Comment