Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-4-11
6yo: 3-4-27
7yo: 4-8-42
8yo: 2-5-40
9yo: 1-5-20
10yo+: 0-0-19
Horses aged 6 to 8 have won 9 of the last 10 running’s, though they have represented 64% of the total runners.
None of the 19 horses aged 10+ to run in past 10 years have made the places.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-13 or more: 7-10-66
Horses carrying 10-12 or less: 3-16-93
Higher weights hold the call in this with 7 of the last 10 winners carrying 10-13 or more.
Top Weight: 94504FPP65 (0-1-10)
Official Ratings
6 of the last 10 winners were officially rated 146 or higher from approximately 34.6% of the total runners. (This is a much tighter handicap than have seen to date )
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham – HAVE APPLIED THE CURRENT ANALYSER TRENDS FOR CHELTENHAM BRIDLE STAYERS -Daves Dream Ousi De Nuit The Giant Bolster Calgary Bay(hdles) Fine Parchment Nobel Alan (hdles) currently the most appealing horse to take a price of is Fine Parchment win and place as the 40s current will tumble over night and thats the only one am tempted to take as of now ....
Note that last years winner little Josh had not won round here - in fact had finished well back in that years RSA but it was a Twiston bugger stable entry!and had won its race at Carlisle on its return that season before coming in here.
10 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F
10 of 10 winners had won a chase at class 2 or better
5 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded chase (3 of 5 exceptions were placed in a grade 1 hurdle)
5 of 10 winners were having their seasonal debut (other 5 had run once that season, 4 winning and 1 finished 2nd)
8 of 10 winners had run less than 10 times over fences
10 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (last 7 had run in 2 or less)
7 of 10 winners (last 5) were second season chasers (3 more experienced chasers had all won at grade 2 level)
7 of 10 winners had their last start at Cheltenham or Carlisle
Other Races
Carlisle Intermediate Chase winner (): 11 (2-0-2)
Zeturf.com Handicap Chase (Billie Magern): 1F43F28 (1-3-7)
Previous year’s December Gold Cup winner (Poquelin): 125 (1-1-3)
Centenary Novice H'cap Chase winner (Divers): 1F (1-0-2)
Betfred Bonus King H'cap Chase winner (Hector's Choice): 4 (0-1-1)
Manifesto Novice Chase winner (Wishfull Thinking): 84 (0-1-2)
Silver Trophy Chase winner (Poquelin): 2P (0-1-2)
Previous November Novice Chase winner (Ghizao): 2U (0-1-2)
Grand Annual Chase winner (Oiseau De Nuit): 9 (0-0-1)
Murphy Group H'cap Chase winner (Wishfull Thinking): 470 (0-0-3)
Byrne Group Plate winner (Holmwood Legend): 477PP6 (0-0-6)
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase at previous year's meeting, finishing 31F
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in the Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase, finishing 211
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 4) ran in Centenary Novice H’cap Chase, finishing 16
2 of 10 winners ran in previous December Gold Cup, finishing 1F
7 of 10 winners ran in a chase at that year's Cheltenham Festival
Trainers
The Pipe stable (4-2-20) have accounted for 4 of the last 10 winners of the race but all 4 were under Martin Pipe’s tenure and David Pipe (0-1-8) has only had one placed finisher from 8 representatives.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (2-2-13) has been the trainer to follow in recent years, saddling the winner in 08 & 10 and filling one of the places in 07 & 09.
Nicky Henderson (1-4-12), Ferdy Murphy (1-1-6) and Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-7) have each saddled a winner and a placed finisher in the last 10 years.
Eddie O’Grady (1-0-2) trained Tranquil Sea to win in 2009.
Phillip Hobbs (0-4-7), Paul Nicholls (0-4-17) and Alan King (0-3-7) have all had multiple placed finishers since 2001
Irish based trainers (1-1-16) had a very poor recent record up until Tranquil Sea’s win in 2009, which was the first Irish success in the last since 1980.
Price
The favourite has a strong record in the race, winning this 5 times since 2000.
Favourites (4-3-10) have gained 4 wins and 3 places from 10 runners since 2001 and show a very healthy level stakes profit of 9.25.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 to 9
- Carrying 10-13+
- Officially rated 146 or higher
- Having first or second run of the season
- Previously won a chase at Cheltenham
- Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F
- Previously run less than 10 times over fences
- Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (ideally run in 2 or less)
- Second season chaser
- Trained in Great Britain
- Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies or Nicky Henderson
- Favourite does well
So its a great race that you have to study. There are plenty of angles and I would like to read them but here is the chasing page of the VFB for your perusal
Bob
12 comments:
I just found out in the view statistics page in the vfb, that the data on the right bottom is related to every individual runner, thats extremely nice actually. And having found out that there is some really remarkable statistic for Chase Hcps in cheltenham.
Favourite Mon Parrain totally fits this. Runners with Rat mDS>B+9 have a 8/61 13% and a ROI of +76%. Also fits in PRC: 02 which has a 3/28 10% with +35% ROI.
Hi Rade - that sum totals your indicating here for Mon Parrain is for a sample size of only two runs in all for a 5 yr old animal - he was spring heeled around Sandown in a lowly 6k races and flat as a pancake around Aintree in a 56K beaten easily by Always Waining. So with its form in France on heavy or soft ground - what makes you stand back at these statistics? This is a race that needs a lot more experience of English park fences than this fellows had and no sort of betting medium at the price quoted
So why do you think its significant please ?
No im saying the statistic data page in VFB shows, that for all Uk Hcp Chase in Cheltenham from 01/01/05-06/11/11 from 151 races there were 61 qualifiers with the Rat:mDS>9 and 8 won with a +76% WPOE, its a quiet significant figure! And its quite logical actually, because the pace is furious in big field events in Cheltenham we are looking for an animal that showed good performance in fast run races before. Therefor is Great Endavour to me a place Lay at 4.0 BSP tomorrow. I go at the moment trough the videos though and make my final selections based on that.
Sorry I dont mean Great Endavour, I mean The Giant Bolster for a place Lay!
Do you mean then that from this data example of 61 qualifiers, that just 2 were 5 year old?
"that sum totals your indicating here for Mon Parrain is for a sample size of only two runs in all for a 5 yr old animal"
I dont understand what you mean with that, actually?
I havent gone trough the videos yet to make a judgement, but what Im looking for is an animal that proved with a fast speed figure in a big field something and better is was even strong after in the end. The data example I gave just surprised me, because it confirms a bit my thought, that a t those big field events you need to look out for a horse that proved under fast pace a good performance and not an animal that won slow races finsihing strongly in the end. Im looking out for an animal that showed in a fast race against good rated animals a strong finish for these big field events, as I think, that these will be truly run and separate the fast animals from the slow animals.
I quote you Rade
"Favourite Mon Parrain totally fits this. Runners with Rat mDS>B+9 have a 8/61 13% and a ROI of +76%. Also fits in PRC: 02 which has a 3/28 10% with +35% ROI."
My Point is -
Mon Parrain stats are based on two runs if you want to say it fits the criteria perfectly. You are happy to say two runs (none at cheltenham) fits this perfectly?
I say it cannot be other than a minor factor - nothing perfect about it at all.
But will be very interested in continuing this in the morning once we have something we can agree to disagree on -- OK?
I got on Great Endavour earlier in the week, i have been "told" that he is being primed for both the paddy power gold cup And the hennasy gold cup.
Apparently expected to go off 2nd/3rd fav on the day.
Will take this with a pinch of salt.
Small E/W Ante Post double.
The 1.55 Chelt - Galaxy Rock E/W got on at 8/1 earlier. Already 5/1.
WHY aren't you all on Wishfull Thinking? It meets all the trends and is a very good animal
@fatalitylord
I agree with you Im sure will steam and has great chance.
Its long time since we have had a post from you fatalitylord -
too busy taking on the government ?
Great Endeavour went into 2nd favvy last year under Murphy but his jumping let him down that day and though Pipe does well with layoff animals you have to trust he's on a going day but plenty have been layed out for this race mate - good luck with galaxy Rock as well - good to have you back online
Hey bob. How's things ? Been busy with work commitment recently. Boring lol! Hows your November so far?
Post a Comment