Hi guys, sorry this is a little late this month (just in case any of you were holding your breath!!) I did promise an update on my progress on the 9th of each month but I have had a terrible month this month and been somewhat distracted. Terrible from a personal point of view rather than a trading point of view but more of that in a moment.
If you haven't read Part 1 and Part 2 you might want to go back and read those so that this update makes sense.
So.... what has happened since 9th October how much closer to my goal of £10,000 I am - well my balance at 9th October was £890.74 and my balance at 9th November was...............tatata............£891.50!!!!!! Now to be fair I have hardly been trading this month at all as there has been a family crisis followed by me being very ill and not able to get out of bed for a week!
However there has been some trading and a couple of interesting things have come out of it - no further profit unfortunately though. So I want to tell you all about my record keeping (do I hear some yawning in the back!) and very important I think it is.
I have a fairly simple spreadsheet system where I log everything I do, how much my stake and porofit/loss is and my balance. I also have the date, time of the race, name of the horse and type of bet whether it is a LAY or a BACK to LAY.
The importance of keeping these records has really come home to me this month as I have gone through and studied where I am making profit and where I consistently make losses. Of course there has been a change from the flat season to the jump season and a change in the going - I always find trading dips around this time but taking that into the equation the following is what I have learnt from my stats.
1. The most common day for me to lose is Friday (I don' t know why I see no pattern or logic to this but I am way more careful on Fridays)
2. On back to lays my success rate for flats is 80% and for jumps 40% - giving a 60% overall - however now the flat season is over I have decided to do BTLs on the AW only (this works too) and not on the jumps
3. My success rate on lays is much better over jumps
4. Some of my biggest and most painful losses have come from lays - as anyone who lays will know its great when you get it right but expensive when it goes wreong. I can wipe out all my profit on one loss - even with 7/8 lays correct. This is really frustrating. I have decided only to do LAYS on jumps where I have much more success and only a few that I am confident of.
5. I still have the same painful habit of not stopping soon enough when I am up enough for the day - thinking of putting some sort of clever software into my pc to make it switch off when I have met my target but I know I'd find a way to get around it!! need to work on this one.
6. Key info from my stats was that I realised that I had stopped using the 1-4 stake system (see previous post 1 or google for explanation). Essentially I have been using level stakes instead. I have no idea how this happened as I know for a fact that when laying the 1-4 system works way, way better for me. So will be back using it again immedately.
7. Another major point was that when looking at the BTLs I had started to over analyse the race and take too much information into account. I was doing much better when just very simply picking out that front runner that trades shorter a high % of the time and checking the stats to make sure it trades low enough. So I need to go back to using pure stats only and ignore all else - it works much better for me.
So whilst all of this info is not worth anything to anyone except me it is essential for me to be able to measure what I am doing. I do hope that this will mean that the next month is again making profit - many more months and I will have to rename this the "From £1,000 to bust" blog!
5 comments:
Thanks Carole - glad to have you up and Fighting Fit!
one of the things that comes out in your piece is your selections (and the point about stopping at a winner!) its like all things - you go to a track for one or maybe two horses. You come up yippeeeeeeee do you stop? do you hell - Lets face it your on a winning streak and no one is going to dissuade you from a bet, you know you will get one more rush of blood to you shout and scream above the crowd. You only remember winning on the last race never losing on the last race - your up anyway so what does it matter etc etc.
It is what Bookies depend on - But Betfair does not
Betfair does not talk of getting out stakes -Bookies Do.
Have watched your bets on the wall and see the consistency of your BTL and that's where your secret lays - Front running horses upped in distance seems your forte --
So can I have your horse type animals?jocks? to follow and what your looking for in your days bets
Bob
Thanks Robert. I do not have any typical horse, jockeyt, type of race (other than I said already) that I follow.
I am much more stats based - using www.Patternform.co.uk to find the front runners and then using Betfair past results to see how low they trade under their SP. Sticking to this formula has been far more profitable than looking at other info.
I do also have a list that I have built up over time which has mostly lays on it with my reasons why they are a lay - and am now adding BTL horses to it - you know who being my favourite ;)
I quote "I do also have a list that I have built up over time which has mostly lays on it with my reasons why they are a lay - and am now adding BTL horses to it - you know who being my favourite ;)"
I WANT THAT LIST :>)
Nice work Carole, never knew you had been quite ill so glad you areback on your feet. Bob, you can't just ask Carole for that list. The poor girl has spent lots of time compiling that list and probably spent hundreds if not thousands of pounds on lost bets in the process so unless you are prepared to compensate her for her lifetimes work/cost then I feel it would be very naughty of you to ask. As the old saying goes "Please don't ask for credit as a refusal often offends."
There is no substitute for hard work so I will start my list ASAP. Neil Munro can help as he gets paid to divulge the info, carole doesn't.
Hope you do not feel offended but there is such a thing as copyright.
All the best with your own list & Carole you keep up the good work.
Oh No I feel awful - Steve your absolutely right - what was Ithinking!
too late though now I have used it to make a robot and will rule the worlddddddddd.
Hi Carole - have tried to match it to a programme on Vfb - your list is safe with me and betfair am going to be rich RICH you hear - will still remember all the little people though when I launch Bobfair and take all your money to the Bahamas with Nursey
Heeee heeeee heeeee (cough) signed Monty Burns
Post a Comment