The Totesport.com Becher Handicap Chase takes place on Sunday 21st November and is run over the Grand National fences over a trip of 3M 2F. Twice in the past decade, the winner of this race has gone on to win the Grand National (Amberleigh House and Silver Birch in a later season). note the ground is forecast soft today and as ever will take some getting Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-1-4
7yo: 1-1-14
8yo: 2-9-32
9yo: 4-6-48
10yo: 3-2-26
11yo: 0-4-15
12yo+: 0-0-11
9 of the last 10 winners have been aged 8 to 10 though that age bracket has accounted for 70.67% of the total runners.
No horse aged over 10 (0-4-26) has won the race in the past 10 years while the only horse aged below 8 to win this since 2000 was Silver Birch who subsequently won the Grand National.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 6-11-71
Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 4-11-79
Higher weights have held an edge in recent years with 3 of the last 4 winners carrying 11-5+.
Top Weight: 16FF541FP1 (3-1-10)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 143 to 157: 4-3-16
Horses rated 127 to 142: 2-15-82
Horses rated 112 to 126: 4-5-52
The last 4 winners have been officially rated 138 to 148.
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on their last completed start
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M4F+
8 of 10 winners had won a chase at class 2 or higher
8 of 10 winners had run in the last 45 days
7 of 10 winners had won over 3M+
7 of 10 winners had run in at least 13 chases (3 exceptions trained by Paul Nicholls)
7 of 10 winners had previously run in 10 to 22 handicap chases (3 exceptions by Paul Nicholls)
7 of 10 winners (last 6) had won no more than 2 handicap chases
7 of 10 winners were 4th or 5th season chasers (all 3 exceptions were trained by Paul Nicholls)
5 of 10 winners had run over the National fences (3 of 5 exceptions were trained by Nicholls, 1 had won the Cork National and 1 had completed the last 2 Irish Nationals)
Other Races
Previous season's winner: U232 (0-3-4)
Scottish National winner (Merigo): 5runs (0-0-1)
Badger Ales Trophy winner (Meanus Dandy): 5 runs (0-0-1)
Desert Orchid Silver Cup winner (Gullible Gordon): 1 run (0-0-1)
3 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Paddy Power Chase, finishing 042
3 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in previous year's Troytown, finishing 764 (Notre Pere won the 2008 running Troytown)
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Leopardstown H'cap Chase, finishing 44
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Irish Grand National, finishing P8
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Pat Taaffee H'cap Chase, finishing 02
2 of 10 winners ran in that year's Grand National, finishing BF (Royal Rosa Fell) (Maljma Fell)(Irish Raptor Fell)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Blue Sq Gold Cup, finishing 4P
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (3-3-14) did not have a runner last year but in the previos 5 years he had trained the winner three times and had the runner-up in the other two years.
Dessie Hughes (2-1-3) has trained the first and third in 2008 and the winner in 2009.
Sue Smith (1-2-9) trained Ardent Scout to gain a win and 2 places in the race.
Irish based trainers (3-2-23) have a good recent record in the race having won it 3 times in the last 5 years.
Price No strong trends on prices, with the last 3 winners going off shorter than 8/1 but 3 others winners since 2000 going off 25/1 or bigger.
Favourites (2-4-11) have won 2 renewals in the past 10 years and show a level stakes loss of 1.75.
Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:-
Aged 8 to 10 - Officially rated 138 or higher -- Finished in the first 5 on last completed start- Has run in the last 45 days- - Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F+ (ideally over 3M+) - Run at least 13 times over fences -- Run in 10 to 22 handicap chases (but won no more than 2) - 4th or 5th season chaser (or trained by Paul Nicholls) - Previous form over the National fences is a positive - Trained by Paul Nicholls or Dessie Hughes
Thoughts - Notre Pere 10/1 is a decent animal that could be coming back to some form similar to its easy win on heavy ground in the welsh Grand national Tom Dreaper trained. Got a closing second its last run and handles stiff fences well (having won at chelt 3m5f soft off this mark) - carrying 11-12 today and top weights have a squeak as above stats - got a breather and ran on closing stages over an inadequate 2m6f - pleasing enough return though again showed signs of indifferent jumping - maybe needs this test of stamina and stiff fences to show he's back
Others i like are :- Whatyouthink 14/1 who seems to have got its jumping back together (though iffy) was finishing so well in the irish national (3m5f heavy) shows it needs the ground and distance
Ballyvesey 49/1 from the Bown yard - not had a lot of experience but a sound jumper and an absolute stayer in making has got Tom Scudamore booked and one to keep an eye on for later - Bown does not tilt at windmills and must be eying this for a good run - though maybe for later def place chances at a big price
TRENDS WENT RIGHT OUT THE WINDOW - This year´s Becher was highly eventful and it proved to be a gruelling race with only seven getting home. The first pair locked horns after the last and HELLO BUD ran out an ultra-game winner to give Sam Twiston-Davies another big-race success.
The winner showed a real liking for these fences in this event last season, when only tiring from the final fence, and ran a big race to finish fifth in the National in April. He was over the top before being pulled up on his final outing last term, but hisyard is in cracking form and he was 7lb lower than when running in the National. His jumping was excellent once again under his usual aggressive ride and he refused to go down when under heavy pressure from the third-last. It looked as though the runner-up might master him coming to the elbow late on, but he picked up again and was well on top at the finish. This was a much-deserved success for the veteran and, although he will be 13 next year, his campaign will be geared around another tilt at the big one in April. The likely quicker ground there will be in his favour and he ought to make another bold bid, even though it´s hard to see him winning it off a likely higher mark.
Royal Rosa was 3lb lower than when finishing in front of the winner in third in this event last year, but had to race from the same amount of the handicap. He shaped encouragingly on his return here last month and, given a patient ride here, returned to his best in defeat. He couldn´t quite get on top of his old rival, but was nicely clear in second and richly deserves to go one better again.
One Cool Cookie, with cheekpieces replacing blinkers, was never seriously competitive yet stayed on dourly from the last and ran a pleasing race. He stays very well and this will surely see him aimed at the National now as he is versatile regarding ground.
Ballyveysey headed the winner three from home and, while he tired from the final fence, this was a decent effort from 5lb out of the weights.
Grade 1 winner Notre Pere was having his first outing in a handicap since winning the Welsh National off a 1lb lower mark, and was expected to relish this return to further after an encouraging comeback effort 17 days earlier. This big horse has always looked as though he might also take to these fences and he jumped well early on. However, he was badly hampered more than once and has to rate unlucky not to have made the places. He looks the one to take out of this event for the Grand National, but his chance in that would really be dependant on getting some cut underfoot.
Irish Raptor´s finest hour came over these fences when winning the Topham in 2009, a race he has also finished second in. He had yet to reach the frame in three runs in this event, but returning heresaw him spring into life and he travelled by far the best through the race. He was still a big threat to his winning stablemate before getting the second-last all wrong, which brought an end to his chances, and he has to rate better than his finishing position.
The first fence was bypassed second time around due to the very heavy fall of Whatuthink, whose jumping has never been the most convincing as a chaser. He reportedly suffered an injury to his jaw.
The 11th fence took some casualties, most notably Merigo. Last season´s Scottish National hero had warmed up for this over hurdles last month and was creeping into it here before falling.
The Paul Nicholls´ pair Gullible Gordon and Menus Dandy both came to grief. The latter´s jockey came off after the Canal turn in what looked a soft unseat.
---1 Hello Bud 15/2F 2 Royal Rosa 14/1 3 One Cool Cookie 25/1 4 Ballyvesey 25/1
Ballyveysey headed the winner three from home and, while he tired from the final fence, this was a decent effort from 5lb out of the weights.
TRENDS WENT RIGHT OUT THE WINDOW - This year´s Becher was highly eventful and it proved to be a gruelling race with only seven getting home. The first pair locked horns after the last and HELLO BUD ran out an ultra-game winner to give Sam Twiston-Davies another big-race success.
The winner showed a real liking for these fences in this event last season, when only tiring from the final fence, and ran a big race to finish fifth in the National in April. He was over the top before being pulled up on his final outing last term, but hisyard is in cracking form and he was 7lb lower than when running in the National. His jumping was excellent once again under his usual aggressive ride and he refused to go down when under heavy pressure from the third-last. It looked as though the runner-up might master him coming to the elbow late on, but he picked up again and was well on top at the finish. This was a much-deserved success for the veteran and, although he will be 13 next year, his campaign will be geared around another tilt at the big one in April. The likely quicker ground there will be in his favour and he ought to make another bold bid, even though it´s hard to see him winning it off a likely higher mark.
Royal Rosa was 3lb lower than when finishing in front of the winner in third in this event last year, but had to race from the same amount of the handicap. He shaped encouragingly on his return here last month and, given a patient ride here, returned to his best in defeat. He couldn´t quite get on top of his old rival, but was nicely clear in second and richly deserves to go one better again.
One Cool Cookie, with cheekpieces replacing blinkers, was never seriously competitive yet stayed on dourly from the last and ran a pleasing race. He stays very well and this will surely see him aimed at the National now as he is versatile regarding ground.
Ballyveysey headed the winner three from home and, while he tired from the final fence, this was a decent effort from 5lb out of the weights.
Grade 1 winner Notre Pere was having his first outing in a handicap since winning the Welsh National off a 1lb lower mark, and was expected to relish this return to further after an encouraging comeback effort 17 days earlier. This big horse has always looked as though he might also take to these fences and he jumped well early on. However, he was badly hampered more than once and has to rate unlucky not to have made the places. He looks the one to take out of this event for the Grand National, but his chance in that would really be dependant on getting some cut underfoot.
Irish Raptor´s finest hour came over these fences when winning the Topham in 2009, a race he has also finished second in. He had yet to reach the frame in three runs in this event, but returning heresaw him spring into life and he travelled by far the best through the race. He was still a big threat to his winning stablemate before getting the second-last all wrong, which brought an end to his chances, and he has to rate better than his finishing position.
The first fence was bypassed second time around due to the very heavy fall of Whatuthink, whose jumping has never been the most convincing as a chaser. He reportedly suffered an injury to his jaw.
The 11th fence took some casualties, most notably Merigo. Last season´s Scottish National hero had warmed up for this over hurdles last month and was creeping into it here before falling.
The Paul Nicholls´ pair Gullible Gordon and Menus Dandy both came to grief. The latter´s jockey came off after the Canal turn in what looked a soft unseat.
---1 Hello Bud 15/2F 2 Royal Rosa 14/1 3 One Cool Cookie 25/1 4 Ballyvesey 25/1
Ballyveysey headed the winner three from home and, while he tired from the final fence, this was a decent effort from 5lb out of the weights.
Bobt 12.00 Sunday
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