Going weather 15th November and whats up Doc? BobT

Folkstone - hdles soft - chase course heavy

The richest race today is Daily Mail handicap chase at Folkstone at only £9.3K and the ground is heavy on the chase track  - decent trainers in this race  and ditto jocks but the fare is dire Zarrfact - Soft ground hurdler the money is down from the Lavelle yard and and thats always significant - cracking stats for her first time chasers. - won over hdles at Newbury this time of the year  2m5f soft ground class 3 and  top of the market makes a compelling case.

its not going to be completely straight forwards however Sporting Rebel at 10 in the main is a heavy ground jumper who has best form r/handed -  and  this looks a target race for the old boy. Trainer Frost has never had a runner here - the mark is well within its range as its win at Fakenham  (Vfb mark of 121) and the rise he has got for that run is takes him to 120) handles soft  and heavy ground well and stays longer than Taxes. looks value at 9s.


Wow Result this one
Zarrfact just cantered home and an analyser horse on this showing hacked up can see this one going to much better things big bugger who really is worth following

 Second highest  prize today is also at Folkstone at a measly £6.5K The Daily mail Novice chase 2m5f  running the analyser shows this the only race with BTL and the problem with stats is believing the numbers for a novice chase -( it aint necessarily so!) the horse is General Kurtzov for Gifford it does front run in the main and conforms to the BTl Criteria but will always be wary of Novice chasers first time over fences - slower ground and slower pace - hdlers often get home where they cant last over hdles. So this is an interesting race for small bets /watching - I really do think the chances of Canni Thinkaar is underestimated for the outsider of the field - now blinkers back on abs loves heavy ground and this track why he's come to fencing so late is a bit of a worry till you see has changed stables from Mr Best to The Davison mother daughter combination. Only wins on soft ground and blinkers over a distance of ground especially Right handed and this track CDG over hdles here on heavy.

 My idea of the winner is Sherwoods animal Arkrose who looks every inch a chaser needed its comeback race at Huntingdon last time and wearing blnks for the first time today - won over hurdles on soft ground a year ago right handed animal.. Returning from a six-month break, he made one or two jumping errors on his chase debut and was another who was put in his place when the big two kicked away down the far side. but when you think the top two were classes above anything else in this race today confidence grows 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Result ---1st (5) Ravethebrave 6-4 Fav

 2nd (3) Canni Thinkaar 80-1

 6 ran backed it place at 27s betfair  and placed  with the tote with the  Field - EX: £61.90   CSF 46.71

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Fakenham  goes ahead with g/sft ground good in places - is a smashing lil track where its def horses for courses and the richest race today is the 2.30 - cannot see beyond Robo around here today and a stayer stepped up in distance on ground will handle - made a few mistakes first chase but slower ground and upped to 3miles makes it the profile horse for the race - will be watching the run for Scudamore with his son on board Bentota - ex pointer (won twice on this ground) has not run for 719 days -no reports of why currently 12/1 


 Result - won like the good thing it was -  
1 Robo 13/8F  2 Plunkett 7/2 3 Bentota 11/1  just sprinted away

good luck today whatever you choose - hope you have a great shout

 Bob