The Paddy Power Gold Cup takes place on Saturday 13th November and is the highlight of Cheltenham’s November meeting. Run over 2M 4½F, it’s a handicap chase which attracts some of the best staying chasers out there, having been won by Our Vic, Exotic Dancer and Imperial Commander in recent years.
26 left in - trends will be fully up on the site 12 November as weather and non runners take their toll but here are some that will wet your appetite
6 & 7 year olds have the best record (combined 8-12-66) which compares well to all others ages (combined 2-13-90).
None of the 19 horses aged 10+ to have run in the past 10 years have made the frame.
Higher weights hold the call in this with 8 of the last 10 winners carrying 10-13 or more.
Top Weight: 594504FPP6 (0-1-10)
5 of the last 10 winners were officially rated 146 or higher and they accounted for approximately 31.4% of the total runners.
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham
10 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F
10 of 10 winners had won a chase at class 2 or better
6 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded chase (3 of 4 exceptions were placed in a grade 1 hurdle)
6 of 10 winners were having their seasonal debut (other 4 had run once that season)
8 of 10 winners had run less than 10 times over fences
10 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (last 6 had run in 2 or less)
7 of 10 winners (last 4) were second season chasers
5 of 10 winners ran at Cheltenham last time out
Paul Nicholls (0-4-15) has yet to train the winner of this but has come close with 4 seconds in past decade. Philip Hobbs (0-3-8) has had two seconds and two thirds in the period while Il Duce provided Alan King (0-2-4) with 2 places.
Irish based trainers (1-1-15) had a very poor recent record up until Tranquil Sea’s win last year, which was the first Irish success in the last since 1980.
1 212U-2 Poquelin 21 7 11-12 P F Nicholls69 Ian Popham5 164 160 170
2 11113- Long Run 241 5 11-6 N J Henderson69 Mr S Waley-Cohen5 158
3 1341- Mad Max 219 8 11-5 N J Henderson69 Barry Geraghty 157 169 173
4 14P-2P Chaninbar 11 7 11-3 M F Harris67 155 164 166
5 FFU-13 Finger Onthe Pulse 59 9 10-11 T J Taaffe 149 161 168
6 U956-F Gwanako 28 7 10-10 P F Nicholls69 148 171 171
7 F212-1 Tchico Polos 11 6 10-10 P F Nicholls69 Noel Fehily 148 164 171
8 1F16-1 Little Josh 13 8 10-8 N A Twiston-Davies63 146 163 165
9 1399-5 The Sawyer 11 10 10-8 R H Buckler33 146 157 175
10 016F-8 Can´t Buy Time 14 8 10-7 Jonjo O´Neill58 145 142 174
11 2318-1 Edgbriar 28 8 10-7 P R Webber25 145 157 163
12 1F43-3 Catch Me 14 8 10-5 E J O´Grady50 143 109 170
13 69UP-3 Tatenen 12 6 10-5 R Rowe33 143 165 177
14 R-3202 Dancing Tornado 14 9 10-4 Michael Hourigan67 142 161 168
15 31441- Great Endeavour 240 6 10-4 D E Pipe54 142 171 174
16 11117 Passato 28 6 10-1 Miss J S Davis100 139 144 168
17 15312- Sunnyhillboy 240 7 10-1 Jonjo O´Neill58 139 172 174
18 51P3-2 Awesome George 20 6 10-0 A King50 138 142 169
19 5P-621 Fisher Bridge 21 7 10-0 Noel Meade54 138 141 173
20 13F6-3 Door Boy 13 7 9-13 J Howard Johnson29 137 135 171
21 1411-8 Pickamus 21 7 9-13 H D Daly33 137 159 172
22 7F4112 Gonebeyondrecall 41 7 9-12 N F Glynn 136 138 162
23 F519-3 Pigeon Island 28 7 9-11 N A Twiston-Davies63 135 152 167
24 40/7-8 Il Duce 28 10 9-8 A King50 132 157 157
25 3492-6 Rory Boy 28 5 9-7 N A Twiston-Davies63 131 140 168
26 P1P-41 Just Smudge 21 8 9-6 Miss Venetia Williams29 130 129 158
2 11113- Long Run 241 5 11-6 N J Henderson69 Mr S Waley-Cohen5 158
3 1341- Mad Max 219 8 11-5 N J Henderson69 Barry Geraghty 157 169 173
4 14P-2P Chaninbar 11 7 11-3 M F Harris67 155 164 166
5 FFU-13 Finger Onthe Pulse 59 9 10-11 T J Taaffe 149 161 168
6 U956-F Gwanako 28 7 10-10 P F Nicholls69 148 171 171
7 F212-1 Tchico Polos 11 6 10-10 P F Nicholls69 Noel Fehily 148 164 171
8 1F16-1 Little Josh 13 8 10-8 N A Twiston-Davies63 146 163 165
9 1399-5 The Sawyer 11 10 10-8 R H Buckler33 146 157 175
10 016F-8 Can´t Buy Time 14 8 10-7 Jonjo O´Neill58 145 142 174
11 2318-1 Edgbriar 28 8 10-7 P R Webber25 145 157 163
12 1F43-3 Catch Me 14 8 10-5 E J O´Grady50 143 109 170
13 69UP-3 Tatenen 12 6 10-5 R Rowe33 143 165 177
14 R-3202 Dancing Tornado 14 9 10-4 Michael Hourigan67 142 161 168
15 31441- Great Endeavour 240 6 10-4 D E Pipe54 142 171 174
16 11117 Passato 28 6 10-1 Miss J S Davis100 139 144 168
17 15312- Sunnyhillboy 240 7 10-1 Jonjo O´Neill58 139 172 174
18 51P3-2 Awesome George 20 6 10-0 A King50 138 142 169
19 5P-621 Fisher Bridge 21 7 10-0 Noel Meade54 138 141 173
20 13F6-3 Door Boy 13 7 9-13 J Howard Johnson29 137 135 171
21 1411-8 Pickamus 21 7 9-13 H D Daly33 137 159 172
22 7F4112 Gonebeyondrecall 41 7 9-12 N F Glynn 136 138 162
23 F519-3 Pigeon Island 28 7 9-11 N A Twiston-Davies63 135 152 167
24 40/7-8 Il Duce 28 10 9-8 A King50 132 157 157
25 3492-6 Rory Boy 28 5 9-7 N A Twiston-Davies63 131 140 168
26 P1P-41 Just Smudge 21 8 9-6 Miss Venetia Williams29 130 129 158
1 comment:
Top trends and top work as we've come to expect from Sir Robert. I'm going have a good look at the trends and try to match it up to a shortlist of horses which I think may figure. This worked well a few weeks ago using your trands at Doncaster in the Racing Post Trophy as I narrowed it down to Seville as a good 'place bet' who finished a very comfortable second at a great price. I'll post them in my blog at some point this week to see if it works or not.
P.S.
Where do you get all the past 10 year trends from? Is it easy to find? Where do you find out that 8 of 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham? Great insight but I don't know how you get so much information in so much detail. Do you think this can be applied to a cold, wet, windy grade 6 run in Wolverhampton on a Thursday night?
So many questions and so little time.
Jon
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