12.30 Vfb analyser and stable notes Wednesday 25th Nov

 from Martin  - yesterday 

"I have a query on the Visual Form Book. It concerns how many runs you include when analysing. If you have systems - you need to set the maximum number of runs to 14.... however, especially for Handicap Chases, I find it better to analyse say 30 runs (sometimes more). The figures, as a rule, change dramatically. I was hoping that some VFB users would give me their thoughts on this".

 I agree on your statement regarding the number of runs to analyse - first off i set to 14 runs to see what animals fit different analyser systems -- (discounting the flat for a moment) I  then run the systems qualifiers for the full days card (takes a minute) - go to those animals that qualify  and look at the race. If still interested on a cursory glance highlite those in the race until all races have the yellow indicator.

Lets consider anything that is outside of novice company beginners chase  sellers etc.

Any animal that is shown to have poor performance on the predicted ground but within the betting and comes into the notes field or qualifier deserves the change to 20 or even 30 runs to be analysed.

 as an example take a look at the 12.30 at Newbury the conditional jockey  championship hdle.

Top Mark is an 8 yr old - taking its last 14 runs it shows only 21% strike rate on the predicted heavy ground and quoted at 31/1 betfair --- set the analyser to include the last 20 runs and that strike rate becomes 40% with runs on heavy ground  (Ayr heavy off a mark of 88 class 4 2miles )  with 100% strike rate in this class. has won with a layoff of 59 day - 

as the day progress I will be monitoring the price and as its with the king yard for a place market bet - its a hold up horse and therefore will go bigger in running -This is a decnt race with loads of potential good animals in it

 two have tongue tie first time Shalamiyr ( analyser animal Linamix mud lover sired) has only run on its preffered sire ground but has got it today has run to a mark well higher than the 108 is off today recording a 115 on soft ground  - but is a dodgy bet or dark horse -  


and Sure Josie Sure ( analyser animal with Pipe who has brill first time headgear/Tt record)  Pipe Stable tour - The Perth form has been boosted, with runner-up Nearby winning the other day. She has filled out even more over the summer, so it’s taking a while to get the weight off, but I hope further progress will see her up to competing in some of those valuable Listed races for mares. There’s one at Wetherby at the end of the month, but she’d need plenty of rain to go up there. She’s one I’m particularly looking forward to.-18/10/10.

I take this as an example only to show that the card and market is analysed by me - but this race has taken place 5 times and won 4 times by Hobbs yard
Shalamiyr  - this is what Hobbs stable tour gave on this animal - 

We don’t know what to make of him. He hasn’t progressed over hurdles and it was a similar story in his bumpers. I worry about his attitude; it may be due to the sire, but when you get a good Linamix it often turns out very good. He’s ready to run any dayand all I can say is he’s very well and gives me the impression he’s improved for a summer break. Trip-wise he’s a puzzle; over 2m or 2m1f he appears to want further, but the three occasions we’ve stepped him up in trip he hasn’t got home. - 11/10/2010.

 you pays your money you make your choice!

 Bob